United States air refueller downed over Iraq in Iran conflict
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View on mapFirst Thing: Kuwaiti tanker hit by Iranian drone attack in Dubai port
The attack came hours after Trump threatened to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s energy plants and oil wells unless it opened the strait of Hormuz. Plus, Israel to give death penalty to Palestinians convicted of lethal attacks Don’t already get First Thing in your inbox? Sign up here Good morning. Iran attacked and set alight a fully loaded crude oil tanker anchored at Dubai port, causing damage to the vessel’s hull, in the latest strike on merchant vessels in the Gulf and the strait of Hormuz. The fire was extinguished within hours and no injuries were reported. What has Trump said about the war’s end? He has continued to give mixed messages, threatening to destroy Iran’s energy facilities unless it agrees to peace terms – while simultaneously claiming diplomatic progress in ending the war the US started together with Israel. Iran has accused the US of using diplomacy as a smokescreen to prepare for more attacks. Which countries are most vulnerable to economic shocks? The Philippines, which imports almost all of its crude oil from the Middle East, is particularly exposed to surging prices, which have triggered protests and widespread anger. Why now? The government of Iran, which the US has attacked, is a prolific and sophisticated disinformation actor, while Russian and Chinese influence operations continue to target US allies globally. How would the embassies do it? They have been told to use local influencers, academics and community leaders abroad to make US-funded narratives feel more organic. Continue reading...
The Guardian WorldMarch 31, 2026 at 10:20 AM UTCWar Diary Day 31: Economic shockwaves deepen in absence of diplomatic off-ramps to Iran war
On the 31st day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the economic dimension of the war continued to become more pronounced as the conflict remained locked in a high-intensity, multi-domain phase, with exchanges continuing across Iran, Israel, and the wider region. Inside Iran, US and Israeli strikes continued to target the civilian infrastructure besides military and strategic targets, including hits on research facilities and air defence systems. The goal seems to be to degrade both Iran’s operational military capability and technological depth. Moreover, there have been attacks on energy sites, leading to power outages in major urban centres such as Tehran and Karaj. Despite these pressures, Iran’s retaliatory capacity remained intact, with continued missile and drone launches targeting Israeli industrial zones and infrastructure, as well as assets in Gulf countries. In Israel, the impact of these strikes has become more visible with a second confirmed hit on the Haifa Bazan oil refinery — one of the country’s most critical energy facilities — in addition to the damage reported in industrial zones in the south. The cumulative effect of repeated strikes on such targets is beginning to strain infrastructure. The Israel Defence Forces warned civilians near the Neot Hovav industrial zone to remain indoors due to fears of a hazardous materials leak after an impact on one of the plants in the zone. The northern front The northern front has also remained active, with continued fighting in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah has maintained pressure through ground engagements and anti-armour operations across multiple sectors. Reports of Israeli casualties and equipment losses underline the attritional nature of this theatre, while Israeli forces have stepped up operations to expand a buffer zone along the border, including through clearance operations in border villages. Hezbollah’s activity suggests that the front will remain a key pressure point and will continue to limit Israel’s ability to concentrate resources elsewhere. The Gulf and maritime domain Across the Gulf and maritime domain, tensions have remained centred on the Strait of Hormuz and related energy routes. Iran has signalled its intent to regulate passage through the strait amid reports of strikes targeting a key pipeline in the United Arab Emirates. These developments reinforced uncertainty in global energy markets, as a result of which oil prices have remained elevated. International financial institutions have, meanwhile, warned of broader economic fallout if disruptions were to persist. Limited traction of peace efforts as kinetic activity continues US military posture in the region has continued to evolve, with additional special operations forces, airborne units, and Marine elements being deployed. These developments indicate that preparation is under way for a range of contingencies that could include limited ground operations or actions aimed at seizing strategic points such as key islands or critical infrastructure. While Washington has reiterated its preference for a diplomatic resolution, official statements have continued to emphasise military objectives focused on degrading Iran’s air, naval and missile capabilities. Diplomatic efforts, including those involving Pakistan, reportedly with backing from China, have yet to produce a breakthrough. Tehran has maintained its position that it is not engaged in negotiations under current conditions, whereas US messaging has continued to combine offers of dialogue with threats of expanded strikes, particularly if maritime routes are not reopened. This situation highlights the limited traction of ongoing attempts for peace because of continued kinetic activity. On the economic front Economically, the conflict is entering a more consequential phase as oil prices have surged beyond earlier thresholds. It’s worth noting that despite sustained attacks, Iran’s export levels look to have held up, which is being interpreted by some as a signal that Iran has been retaining leverage in the energy domain. At the same time, repeated strikes on Israeli and regional industrial infrastructure are adding to the cumulative costs. With no off-ramps in sight, the global markets are beginning to factor in the risk of prolonged disruption. The reading of the situation at the end of day 31 suggests that the coming days are likely to be shaped by the interaction between continuation of military actions across multiple fronts, scarce de-escalation pathways and growing economic pressures. In particular, attention will be focused on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for further widening of the conflict if current trends persist. Header image: A first responder inspects the wreckage of a vehicle at the site of an Israeli airstrike in the southern Lebanese village of Hanouiyeh, east of Tyre, on March 30, 2026. — AFP
DawnMarch 30, 2026 at 05:30 PM UTCHow the Iran war is rewriting the economics of power … and why Pakistan must read the signals first
The 2026 war in Iran is the most consequential military laboratory since the Gulf War and like that war, the lessons it is generating will be misread by precisely the institutions that most need to understand them. Just over four weeks into Operation Epic Fury, Iran has launched over 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones across the region. Oil prices threaten to breach $200 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to unapproved shipping. The United States has deployed a reverse-engineered copy of its adversary’s cheapest drone in its first combat use. And Pakistan is no longer merely watching. It is transmitting ceasefire proposals between Washington and Tehran, offering Islamabad as the venue for talks, and positioning itself at the centre of the most consequential diplomatic moment in the Middle East since the end of the Cold War. The question is whether the same institutional agility now evident in its diplomacy can be applied to its defence procurement. The unit economics of war Eisenhower warned of the military-industrial complex in 1961. Today, more than 65 years on, it is worth identifying the specific component of that complex whose product is being tested in Iran: the interlocking ecosystem of Western defence contractors, procurement bureaucracies, and strategic consultancies whose revenue depends on selling air-superiority-first, high-cost, low-volume warfare. This ecosystem does not merely sell hardware. It sells an entire theory of war, bundled with the platforms that make that theory appear necessary and the sustainment contracts that make those platforms inescapable. Its pricing model has now been tested in real time. In FY2025, the US produced 22 Tomahawk cruise missiles for the entire year, according to Pentagon budget documentation. This followed 34 in FY2024 and 68 in FY2023 — a trajectory that The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) described as burning through 15 years’ worth of stockpile in five years. The February 2026 emergency production agreement between Raytheon and the Pentagon, targeting over 1,000 missiles per year, was an implicit admission that the production base had atrophied to the point of strategic vulnerability. An estimated 400 Tomahawks were expended in the first three days of Epic Fury alone — approximately 10 per cent of the entire US inventory. Now consider the other side of the ledger. The Shahed-136 drone, produced at scale for between $20,000 and $80,000 per unit depending on variant, has been manufactured at rates exceeding 400 per month at Russia’s Alabuga facility alone. CSIS analysis published on March 10 found that drones constituted approximately 66pc of all Iranian strikes in the first week — not as supplementary weapons but as the backbone of the strike architecture. The UAE alone absorbed 1,440 detected drones and 261 missiles, accounting for roughly 62pc of all recorded strikes. The cost-exchange ratio is the number that should keep procurement officials awake. A Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor costs between $3-4 million. A Shahed, averaging $50,000, runs at roughly one-seventieth the price of the interceptor designed to stop it. Ukrainian interceptor drones cost $2,000 to $4,000 per unit — and Ukraine produced over 100,000 of them in 2025. When the US military deploys the Lucas drone — its reverse-engineered Shahed clone — in combat, the message is unambiguous: the adversary’s cheapest weapon is worth copying. The playbook has no answer for that. The May 2025 proof of concept The India-Pakistan conflict of May 2025 validated the same logic in a South Asian context — with implications Pakistan’s defence establishment has an opportunity to capitalise on more fully. India’s Operation Sindoor triggered the largest beyond-visual-range air engagement since the Second World War. Over 114 aircraft were involved — 60 Indian Air Force (IAF), 42 Pakistan Air Force (PAF) — in an engagement lasting approximately 52 minutes across standoff distances exceeding 100 kilometres. For a force armed with missiles whose engagement range exceeded the adversary’s, 60 aircraft in a confined battlespace presented a target-rich environment — and PAF exploited it accordingly. The results are broadly established. A high-ranking French intelligence official confirmed evidence of at least three Indian aircraft downed, including a Rafale and a Mirage 2000. A US official assessed with “high confidence,” according to Reuters, that Pakistani J-10C aircraft had shot down at least two Indian jets. India’s Chief of Defence Staff acknowledged aerial losses at the Shangri-La Dialogue. The Washington Post identified three crash sites inside Indian territory. The engagement was fought almost entirely with Chinese-origin systems — J-10Cs firing PL-15 beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles in their first combat use. The PL-15’s engagement range exceeded that of Western missiles in India’s inventory. Pakistan’s F-16 fleet was present. The decisive results came from the Chinese fleet. The Harvard Belfer Centre described this as the first significant contest between high-end Chinese and Western military hardware. Pakistan’s defence establishment demonstrated tactical brilliance under constraint. The No. 15 Squadron — the Cobras, operating from PAF Base Minhas — executed a textbook BVR engagement against a numerically superior force equipped with platforms costing four times as much. Today, the establishment that delivered these results has an opportunity to apply the same institutional energy to the procurement logic that determines which platforms it will fight with next. The dependency trap The F-16 remains a capable aircraft. It is also a platform whose cost of ownership includes ongoing American leverage over Pakistan’s sovereign defence decisions. For example, the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) framework requires US authorisation for upgrades, spare parts, and operational capabilities. In December 2025, the US approved a $686 million FMS package for F-16 sustainment through 2040, with Lockheed Martin as principal contractor. Of that $686 million, $37 million covers major defence equipment. The remaining $649 million — 95 cents of every dollar — goes to sustainment and modernisation services. Not to new capability. To maintenance of the existing dependency. Consider what $686 million buys in the alternative economy. At $50,000 per unit, it buys 13,720 one-way attack drones. At $4,000 per Ukrainian-model interceptor drone, it buys 171,500 defensive systems. At the production cost of a JF-17 Block III, it buys a squadron. US Air Force Col John Boyd’s ‘OODA’ loop — observe, orient, decide, act — is typically applied to tactical engagements. It applies equally to strategic procurement. Pakistan observed the results of May 2025: Chinese platforms outperformed Western ones in combat. The orientation is clear. But by December 2025, the decision cycle had produced a $686 million sustainment commitment to the platform that didn’t deliver the decisive results, locked in through 2040. The institutional OODA loop — which has proven it can cycle fast when it needs to, as the March 2026 mediation demonstrates — has an opportunity to apply the same speed to procurement. Pakistan has been burned by this dynamic before. In 1990, the United States stopped delivery of 28 F-16s for which Pakistan had already paid $658 million, under the Pressler amendment. It took eight years and a settlement involving cash and wheat to resolve. The institutional memory of that episode is alive in Rawalpindi. The structural conditions that produced it have not changed. The strategic enabler The May 2025 conflict demonstrated that a partner state’s combat effectiveness can be transformed not through direct participation but through architecture: Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) coverage, weapons systems whose engagement envelopes exceed the adversary’s, and an alliance model that enhances sovereign capability rather than constraining it. The specifics remain contested between Indian, Pakistani, and Western sources. The structural implications do not. China operates at least 115 ISR satellites and 81 signals intelligence satellites — a network second only to that of the US. Chinese PL-15 missiles outranged Western equivalents in their first combat use. Beijing is fast-tracking J-35 stealth jets to Islamabad. This is an ecosystem that enhances the partner’s lethality and decision-making without extracting sovereignty as the price of admission. The complex does the opposite: it sells capability and embeds dependency into every transaction. Pakistan does not need to choose between the two on the basis of sentiment. It needs to choose on the basis of what delivered results at Kamra on May 7, 2025 — and invest accordingly. The Gulf opening — and the clock The 2026 war has exposed a vulnerability in the Gulf security architecture that represents, for Pakistan, what may be the most consequential strategic opportunity since the end of the Cold War. As of today, that opportunity is no longer hypothetical. Pakistan is already in the room. Pakistan transmitted the US 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran. Islamabad has offered to host talks. Foreign Policy described Pakistan as “a rare country that has warm ties with both the United States and Iran and is engaged with the highest levels of both governments.” Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are pushing for in-person talks in Islamabad, with formats under discussion that could include Iran’s Foreign Minister and senior US envoys. Iran’s five-point counterproposal — a halt to assassinations of its officials, guarantees against future aggression, war reparations, cessation of hostilities, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — reflects demands Washington will find difficult to accept in their current form. But the underlying logic is not irrational: a state that was attacked during active diplomatic negotiations, whose supreme leader was assassinated while a breakthrough had reportedly been reached, has reason to demand structural guarantees rather than verbal assurances. Pakistan’s value as a mediator lies precisely in its ability to translate these positions into language both sides can engage with — without endorsing either. The American security guarantee to the Gulf has been tested and found conditional. The US Embassy in Kuwait was struck and closed. Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, Dubai International Airport, and Kuwait International Airport have all sustained damage. Within the first four days, at least one US Gulf ally was running low on interceptor munitions. India imports over 80pc of its crude oil, much of it from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. India has far more to lose economically from prolonged Gulf instability than Pakistan does. The 2026 war has demonstrated that this infrastructure is targetable at scale by an adversary whose principal weapons cost less than a Land Rover Defender. But the window for this opportunity is not open-ended. The Pentagon has ordered approximately 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division’s Immediate Response Force to the Middle East — a formation that can mobilise worldwide within 18 hours. Two Marine Expeditionary Units, carrying a combined 4,500 Marines and sailors, are converging on the Persian Gulf from both sides of the Pacific. Secretary of State Rubio has told Congress the US may need to physically secure nuclear material inside Iran. The combined deployment brings nearly 7,000 additional ground troops into proximity with Iran — the largest such buildup since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Once ground forces are committed, the diplomatic space that Pakistan currently occupies collapses. The mediation window is measured in days, not weeks. The verbal orders should already be issued. The scenarios should already be war-gamed. The question is not whether Pakistan has the strategic position to broker this — the last 27 days have established that it does. The question is whether it can execute at the speed the moment demands. The strategic dividend Pakistan’s negotiating position carries additional structural weight through its relationship with Beijing. China’s economic leverage — as Iran’s largest oil customer and a permanent member of the UN Security Council — gives any Pakistan-facilitated agreement a durability that no other mediator can guarantee. A settlement brokered through Islamabad, with Chinese strategic backing, would carry the combined diplomatic weight of two states representing over two billion people. That is not a peripheral contribution to the negotiations. It is the difference between a ceasefire and an architecture. The state that brokers the peace sets the terms of the security architecture that follows. For Pakistan, successful mediation converts diplomatic capital into tangible strategic returns: security partnerships with GCC states whose infrastructure requires repair and reinforcement, a fundamentally restructured economic relationship with the Gulf, and a position at the centre of the regional order rather than its periphery. The GCC relationship transforms from financial dependency into strategic partnership — with Pakistan as a provider of security rather than a supplicant for aid. The question that matters The convergence between India and Israel — accelerated by shared threat perceptions, defence technology transfers, and the realignment of Middle Eastern alliances — represents a genuine medium-term challenge. The question it poses is not: how many additional fighter squadrons are required? It is more fundamental: is this a conventional military challenge requiring more hardware of the same type — or is it an intelligence, economic, and doctrinal challenge that demands an entirely different response? Pakistan has lost over 83,000 lives to terrorism-related violence from 2001 to 2022, according to the National Counter Terrorism Authority (Nacta). The entire Kashmir conflict has produced approximately 47,000 fatalities since 1989. Even accounting for the different character of these conflicts, the disparity suggests that Pakistan’s primary existential threat has never been the one its conventional force structure was designed to meet. The alternative — investing in asymmetric capability, drone production at scale, electronic warfare, indigenous defence manufacturing, and a doctrine designed for the threats Pakistan actually faces — may require some reassessment at the institutional level. The May 2025 conflict provided the proof of concept. The 2026 war is providing the strategic evidence. The March 2026 mediation is providing the diplomatic platform. Pakistan must be willing to act on all three.
DawnMarch 30, 2026 at 08:08 AM UTCBetween escalation and engagement: Pakistan keeps hope for peace alive
WASHINTON: Between the steady drumbeat of military escalation and the fragile stirrings of diplomacy, Pakistan has positioned itself as a rare and consequential channel of engagement in a crisis that threatens to widen into a full-scale regional war. By late Monday, speculation in the US capital had shifted toward the possibility of American ground operations in Iran. The shift followed President Donald Trump’s interview with the Financial Times, in which he spoke of “taking the oil” in Iran — remarks widely interpreted here as referring to the possible seizure of Kharg Island, Tehran’s principal crude export hub that also houses a naval facility. “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran,” Trump told the newspaper. He added that Iran had agreed to “most of” a 15-point US proposal conveyed through intermediaries. The rhetoric coincided with mounting reports of military preparations. The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of potential ground operations, as thousands of American soldiers and Marines move into the Middle East for what officials described as a possible “dangerous new phase” should the president decide to escalate. According to the newspaper, any ground action would likely stop short of a full-scale invasion but could involve raids carried out by Special Operations forces alongside conventional infantry units. The New York Times reported separately that US Special Operations commandos have been deployed to the region while Trump weighs options. The paper noted that these forces could be used to safeguard shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, participate in a mission to seize Kharg Island, or target sites linked to Iran’s enriched uranium programme. Elements of the 82nd Airborne Division are reportedly on the move, alongside Marines trained in amphibious landings. Officials acknowledge that any such operation would expose US personnel to Iranian drones, missile fire and irregular ground attacks. Tehran’s rhetoric has been equally forceful. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and a former Revolutionary Guard commander, warned that Iranian forces were “waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire,” according to state media reports. Iranian officials have also dismissed diplomatic overtures as possible cover for military escalation, underscoring deep mistrust. Yet even as military contingency planning intensifies, diplomatic channels remain active. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, President Trump insisted that Iran had responded positively to most US demands. “They’re agreeing with us on the plan,” he said. Iranian sources, however, have indicated that any pause in the month-long conflict would require an immediate halt to strikes and guarantees against renewed attacks. It is within this narrow diplomatic opening that Pakistan has stepped forward. On Sunday, Islamabad hosted foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey in consultations aimed at de-escalation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has spoken with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, emphasising restraint and a return to dialogue. Pakistani officials have publicly indicated that Islamabad stands ready to host and facilitate US–Iran talks, whether direct or indirect. In Washington’s policy community, that offer has drawn measured but notable attention. Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, described Pakistan’s willingness to facilitate talks as “the most promising development to date” in efforts to end the war. He argued that Pakistan’s mediation role — particularly as a US–Iran go-between — makes strategic sense at a time when direct engagement remains politically constrained for both Washington and Tehran. Islamabad, he noted, maintains working ties with both capitals and has historically served as a discreet diplomatic channel in sensitive situations. Even if mediation ultimately falls short, Kugelman suggested, Pakistan’s effort would still advance its strategic interests by reinforcing its diplomatic relevance during a period of heightened regional instability. A similar assessment came from Lisa Curtis, who served as deputy assistant to the US president and senior director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council from 2017 to 2021 and is currently a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “It may be surprising to some that Pakistan has taken on the risky role of a key mediator between the United States and Iran,” she observed. “However, if successful, Pakistan would burnish its diplomatic credentials and receive a major boost to its relations with the United States.” Her comments reflect a broader recognition in Washington that Pakistan’s mediation effort builds on a gradual improvement in bilateral ties over the past year. A successful diplomatic intervention — or even a stabilising ceasefire — could further consolidate that trend. At the same time, domestic debate in the United States is sharpening. Senator Rand Paul, a Republican from Kentucky and chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, has questioned the legality of launching military action without congressional approval. He warned that prolonged conflict could carry constitutional and political consequences, particularly if the administration seeks additional funding for military operations. The war has already inflicted thousands of casualties and disrupted maritime traffic near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies. US lawmakers, scholars and media outlets warn that any move to seize territory such as Kharg Island or conduct sustained ground raids inside Iran would mark a dramatic escalation, potentially drawing additional regional actors into the conflict. Some described the present moment as a stark duality. On one side stand airborne brigades, amphibious assault units and Pentagon contingency plans. On the other stands a diplomatic initiative centred in Islamabad seeking to transform indirect exchanges into structured dialogue. They argued that wars often gather momentum quickly; de-escalation requires restraint, political will and credible intermediaries. Between escalation and engagement, Pakistan has chosen to invest its diplomatic capital in the harder path. Whether that effort succeeds will depend largely on decisions taken in Washington and Tehran in the coming days. But for now, Islamabad’s initiative remains one of the few tangible indications that diplomacy has not been eclipsed by the logic of force.
DawnMarch 30, 2026 at 07:44 AM UTCMiddle East crisis live: Trump says he wants to ‘take the oil’ in Iran and could seize Kharg Island ‘easily’
US president tells Financial Times his ‘preference would be to take the oil’ but that ‘some stupid people back in the US say: “why are you doing that?”’ Full report: Iran accuses US of plotting ground assault while publicly seeking talks Analysis: what the Houthis’ entry into the Iran war means for the conflict and the wider region Donald Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds (454kg) of uranium from Iran, the Wall Street Journal is reporting, citing unnamed US officials. The mission would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer, the report says. But the president remains generally open to the idea, according to the officials, because it could help accomplish his central goal of preventing Iran from ever making a nuclear weapon. The combined effect of both waterways being shut to commercial traffic from countries that neither the Iranians nor Houthis favour would be devastating. Napoleon Bonaparte’s remark that “the policy of a state lies in its geography” has never seemed more apt. Continue reading...
The Guardian WorldMarch 30, 2026 at 05:32 AM UTCIndustry in crosshairs amid no let-up in Iran war
BLACK smoke billows from a site in the Neot Hovav industrial zone near Be’er Sheva in Israel after Iranian missiles struck the facility.—X/@iribnews_irib • Tehran strikes aluminium producers in UAE and Bahrain, chemical plant in Israel; Neot Hovav industrial zone fire declared ‘hazardous materials incident’ • US-Israel forces bomb Iranian port city, Isfahan varsity, media office in Tehran; at least five killed • Iranian parliament speaker accuses US of plotting ground invasion after 3,500 troops arrive in ME TEHRAN: A day after its industrial infrastructure was targeted by the US and Israel, Iran on Sunday fired a volley of missiles and drones at plants belonging to two of the world’s largest aluminium producers in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as an industrial plant in Israel, causing a “hazardous fire”. The US and Israel, on the other hand, bombed a building in Tehran housing the office of the Qatar-based news channel Al Araby, a university in Isfahan, a missile production facility, and a quay in a port city on Sunday, amid reports that the US was preparing for a ground invasion of Iran. According to Iran’s parliament speaker, the US was planning to invade Iran despite talking about diplomacy. According to AFP, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they struck industries linked to the US military in the UAE and Bahrain. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said an Iranian attack wounded six and caused significant damage to its plant, while Bahraini state media said two Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) employees were injured in a second attack. Similarly, Adama, a maker of active ingredients and crop protection materials, said its Makhteshim plant in southern Israel had been hit either by an Iranian missile or debris from an intercepted missile, but no injuries were reported, according to Reuters. (left) Rescue operations underway at Al Araby TV’s Tehran office following a US-Israel missile strike, a day after an Iranian strike on a US Air Force Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft at Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Airbase.—AFP Adama, part of the Chinese-owned Syngenta Group, said the extent of any damage to the plant was not immediately known. Israel’s fire and rescue service said a fire broke out in an industrial area in southern Israel that houses several chemical manufacturing and industrial plants following an Iranian missile attack, likely caused by debris from a missile that was intercepted. BBC quoted Israeli authorities as saying that the fire in Neot Hovav industrial zone had been declared “a hazardous materials incident” and workers were urged to evacuate “exposed” areas and instead shelter in “protected structures”. Kuwait also came under fire. According to Al Jazeera, 10 Kuwaiti military personnel were injured in an Iranian attack on an army camp in Kuwait. A statement issued by the spokesman of the Ministry of Defence said the injured are receiving medical treatment, and that there was also “material damage at the site”. Meanwhile, in Tehran, two blasts shook the city early Sunday, an AFP journalist said, although it was not clear what was targeted. However, Qatari news channel Al Araby said an Israeli missile hit the building housing its office in the city. Footage from inside the office showed broken windows and shattered glass. The news outlet said it was located in a civilian area. It subsequently had to suspend its transmission due to the attack. “I miss a peaceful night’s sleep,” an artist in Tehran told AFP, saying night-time strikes were “so intense it felt like all of Tehran was shaking”. A university in Iran’s central city of Isfahan says that it was hit by US-Israeli airstrikes for the second time since the war between the foes erupted a month ago, AFP reports. “Around 2pm (10:30 GMT) today, Isfahan University of Technology was targeted for the second time (during the war) by a brutal airstrike by Zionist-American aggressors,” the university said in a statement carried by the Fars news agency. “According to initial reports, the attack on one of the university’s research institutes also caused damage to several other buildings and resulted in minor injuries to four university staff members,” it added. Iran warned of targeting US-linked universities in retaliation for the attacks on Iranian universities. The Israeli military claimed overnight that it attacked a key production facility in Tehran used by Iran’s defence ministry to manufacture components for ballistic missiles, reported AFP. “The site is one of only two of its kind in Iran where critical components were developed for the assembly and operationalisation of missiles set to launch toward the state of Israel,” the military said. Iranian state media reported that US-Israeli strikes also hit a quay in the port city of Bandar Khamir, near the Strait of Hormuz, killing at least five people and injuring several. Boots on the ground Separately, Iran’s parliament speaker accused the US of plotting a ground attack despite talking about diplomacy, after a US warship with around 3,500 military personnel arrived in the Middle East. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s comments come after more than a month of aerial bombardment of Iran by US and Israeli forces and ahead of talks between key regional players on Monday. “The enemy publicly sends messages of negotiation and dialogue while secretly planning a ground attack,” Ghalibaf said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency. “Our men are waiting for the arrival of the American soldiers on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional allies once and for all,” he added. The USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship carrying around 3,500 Marines and sailors, arrived in the Middle East on Friday. The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon was preparing plans for weeks of ground operations—potentially including raids on Kharg Island and sites near the Strait of Hormuz—though US President Donald Trump has yet to approve any deployment. Iran said it has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane which accounts for a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, to hostile shipping. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken of diplomatic contacts with Iran, although these claims have been denied by Tehran. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said a US-Iran meeting could take place soon, and promoted a 15-point plan that Washington says “could solve it all”. The war has escalated into a regional conflagration as Iran has retaliated with attacks on Gulf states, sending energy markets into a tailspin and threatening the world economy. Iran’s neighbour Iraq too has increasingly been drawn into the conflict. In Syria, authorities said Sunday they had repelled a drone attack from Iraq targeting a US military base, which came after a series of strikes that have been claimed by pro-Tehran Iraqi groups. Published in Dawn, March 30th, 2026
DawnMarch 30, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTCWar Diary Day 30: Multifront attrition deepens, strategic picture getting complicated for US and Israel
By the 30th day of the US-Israel war on Iran, it has become increasingly clear that the conflict has crossed a critical threshold and is no longer confined to Iranian territory. The conflict is now spilling outward due to Iran’s sustained resilience, the coordinated actions of its regional proxies, and growing domestic unrest in Bahrain. These factors are effectively eroding the tactical gains achieved by US and Israeli forces. Inside Iran, US and Israeli strikes over the past 24 hours continued to target a mix of military, industrial, and increasingly civilian infrastructure, with reported hits on residential blocks in Tehran, academic institutions, aerospace facilities, energy sites and a water filtration plant in Khuzestan, alongside continued pressure on the Bushehr nuclear complex. This expanding target set tells about a shift in the US-Israel alliance’s war focus toward degrading Iran’s broader scientific and industrial base rather than only its military capabilities. Civilian casualties are becoming more visible, and Iranian narratives are framing this pattern as an attempt at Iran’s long-term “de-development” and economic and scientific degradation. Despite this pressure, Iran’s defensive and retaliatory posture has remained intact. The reported shoot-down of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone during past 24 hours and continued missile and drone strikes on Israeli electronic warfare and radar installations in Haifa, as well as fuel-related targets near Ben Gurion Airport, proves that despite all the coalition pressure on Iran, it still has a functioning and adaptive command structure and that its decentralised “mosaic” system is absorbing shocks without loss of operational coherence. The proxy front On Israel and its northern front, pressure has been sustained through a combination of direct Iranian strikes and Hezbollah action. Hezbollah continues to engage Israeli forces along the Lebanon border through a mix of ground resistance and rocket fire, thereby inflicting high cost on Israel and preventing any stabilisation of the front. At the same time, Yemen’s Houthi movement has stepped up involvement with repeated missile and drone launches toward Israel. These attacks are basically a practical signal from Houthis about their readiness to widen the conflict if required, debunking speculations about it. Across the wider Gulf and proxy theatres, the conflict has deepened both geographically and strategically. Actions by Iran and its aligned groups have targeted US and allied assets across multiple nodes, including drone attacks over Erbil, continued pressure from Iraqi militias, and strikes affecting key economic installations in the United Arab Emirates, including major aluminium production infrastructure. The Iranian claims of attacks on US positions in Kuwait and maritime targets near Oman largely fit into a broader pattern of probing and disrupting US logistics and forward presence. Unrest in Bahrain A notable new dimension has emerged in Bahrain, where the internal situation has deteriorated sharply following the death in custody of a detainee associated with anti-war protests. The resulting demonstrations, drawing participation across sectarian lines, mark a rare moment of unified dissent in Bahrain, which importantly highlights the domestic vulnerabilities of Gulf states aligned with the US position. The unrest in Bahrain, if sustained, would complicate regional coalition dynamics. Signs of Washington moving beyond air-centric campaign On the military balance, the US force’s posture is keeping escalation options open with additional troop deployments and preparations for potential ground operations. This suggests that Washington is planning to move beyond an air-centric campaign toward a broader set of contingencies. However, surprisingly, this expansion is taking place against a backdrop of rising economic and political costs, including market volatility and growing scrutiny of the war’s objectives and trajectory. Diplomatically, there are few signs of meaningful movement. Messaging from Washington remains mixed between signalling openness to talks and continuing military pressure, while Tehran has shown no indication of stepping back from its core positions and has repeatedly told external interlocutors that it does not trust the US. At the end of Day 30, I believe Iranian capacity to impose costs across multiple fronts, combined with proxy synchronisation and emerging instability in allied Gulf states, is complicating the strategic picture for the US and Israel. In the absence of a credible political off-ramp, the conflict is set to continue as a prolonged regional conflict with mounting economic and human costs. Header image: A journalist walks past the wreckage of vehicles during the visit of a car service centre in eastern Tehran that was hit by a missile strike, on March 28, 2026. — AFP
DawnMarch 29, 2026 at 01:13 PM UTCWill defiant Iran win peace?
AS missiles, drones and bombs were hitting targets on all sides of the Persian Gulf, news broke of a mediation effort led by Pakistan, Turkiye and Egypt that generated a faint hope that at some stage it would result in the cessation of hostilities triggered by the brazen US-Israel attack on Iran and the latter’s retaliatory action. However, Israel may have extinguished that hope when, in a major escalatory move, it attacked a number of steel and power plants and a nuclear facility in Iran late on Friday. These attacks came despite US President Donald Trump’s declaration that he was extending his earlier five-day deadline to another 10 and refraining from attacking such sites to give negotiations a chance. I doubt Israel would have acted alone. Iran, which was unequivocal in threatening ‘unprecedented’ retaliation if such sites were hit, responded by issuing a list of similar targets in Israel and in Gulf States which host US bases and troops. Western security sources were expecting significant Iranian retaliation. Do the US and Israel have enough in their armouries to blunt such an assault? Slowly but surely reports have been appearing in the usually circumspect American media that the missile interceptors of the US, Israel and their allies are running out and also that America’s inventory of Tomahawk cruise missiles is running low as they have so far launched some 800-plus of these weapons on Iran. Not one of the stated war objectives of the US-Israel combine has been met, particularly not ‘regime change’. Iran is still raining missiles and the Hezbollah and Houthis have also joined the war. Experts are pointing out that US companies have been asked to ramp up production of all kinds of offensive and defensive missiles but there are two impediments. The first is that they can’t be mass-produced at the drop of a hat; it will be several months, even up to a year, before they start to beef up inventories. And secondly, China owns or controls up to 98 per cent of some of the rare earth materials that are reportedly needed in the guidance and targeting systems of these missiles. It isn’t exporting them currently. As these lines were being written, one report has suggested that in the latest Iranian missile/drone attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia, one or more E-3 AWACS planes were hit along with some aerial refuelling tankers. The significance of the damage to E-3s is that they were sent to the Middle East after Iran struck various US radars severely limiting the ability to keep an eye on incoming missiles and other projectiles. The US media has also reported that Iran is able to make operational some of its tunnels within 48 hours of Israel-US bombing to seal off their openings. It uses these to launch missiles and access its stockpiles buried deep underground, often in rocky terrain. Iran may be in severe pain but it has clearly not lost its ability to inflict pain right back. Meanwhile, not one of the stated war objectives of the US-Israel combine has been met, particularly not ‘regime change.’ Iran is still launching missiles, and its so-called proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon have also joined the fight and the Houthis of Yemen, too, are jumping in. The despatch of about 10,000 US Marines and servicemen/women has been taken as an indication of some sort of attempt by the US to capture one or more Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. But military experts argue that any such attempt seems mindless in the face of what they assess are the losses the US will have to take. Perhaps, their ground mission is elsewhere. It seems Israel’s provocative targeting of key sites in Iran and the latter’s retaliation, some of which has already come and some is feared, may not have derailed the negotiation process. The Pakistan foreign minister is hosting his Turkish, Egyptian and Saudi Arabian counterparts soon. The presence of US and Iranian interlocutors can’t be ruled out, even as it appears unlikely. The biggest obstacle to any move forward in any peace talks will be Iran’s experience of being attacked while in the midst of negotiations last year and earlier this year. Of course, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, barring a few carriers Iran has flagged through, will push up energy prices to a level where the damage to the global economy and the markets will be unsustainable. Trump is a master at double-speak. So, nothing he says can be taken at face value, as Israel demonstrated by violating his 10-day moratorium on striking power plants and other infrastructure. Rising energy prices and the possibility of further huge damage to the Gulf energy infrastructure may force him to put a leash on Benjamin Netanyahu, the genocidal psychopath at the helm of the apartheid state, who is trampling international law and possibly even reshaping the regional security architecture to the detriment of the US itself. Much will depend on whether the psycho can be put on a leash or will continue to wag the dog. Equally, peace moves will hinge on who gains the upper hand in the Washington, D.C. split where the vice president and the CIA director are said to favour an end to the war and the secretaries of war and state believed to be firmly in Bibi’s lap. The writer is a former editor of Dawn. abbas.nasir@hotmail.com Published in Dawn, March 29th, 2026
DawnMarch 29, 2026 at 03:53 AM UTCHouthis join fray by firing ballistic missiles at Israel
• Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain hit by Iranian missiles, drones; strike wounds US troops at Saudi airbase • Drone strike disrupts shipping hub in Salalah • Explosions rock Tehran as Israeli attacks intensify; Iran halts steel production • IRGC warns of retaliation against regional economic infrastructure • Israel reports 5,689 wartime injuries; hospitals under pressure • Vance says US nearing exit but war to continue a ‘little longer’ TEHRAN: Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced their entry into the Middle East war on Saturday by launching a barrage of ballistic missiles towards Israel, while Gulf countries came under missile fire and Israeli forces struck Iran, as the war raged into its second month with Washington expressing hopes for progress in talks with Tehran. The intervention of Iran’s Yemeni allies in the US-Israel war on Iran will spark concern about disruptions to Red Sea shipping, with trade from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz already choked off. With Hormuz all but impassable, many shipments to and from the region go through the Omani port of Salalah, on the Arabian Sea, but Danish shipping giant Maersk said operations had been temporarily suspended there after a drone attack injured one worker and damaged a crane. With no end to the conflict in sight despite US President Donald Trump’s optimism that US forces have obliterated Iran’s military, a spokesman for the Houthis issued a video statement declaring that the group had launched ballistic missiles towards Israeli bases. Meanwhile, Emirati authorities said debris from a successful missile interception started fires at an Abu Dhabi industrial zone, injuring five Indian nationals. Saudi Arabia also said it had intercepted a missile and several drones, and Bahrain said a blaze caused by the “Iranian aggression” had been brought under control. In Israel, repeated air raid sirens sent people to shelters. Israel’s health ministry said that a total of 142 people had been brought to hospitals in the last 24 hours, bringing Israel’s total wartime injuries to 5,689, Al Jazeera reported. Of those injured, 132 remain hospitalised, 15 of whom are in serious condition and one of whom is in critical condition, according to the ministry. An Iranian missile and drone attack on the Prince Sultan Air–base in Saudi Arabia wounded at least 12 American soldiers, two of them seriously, according to The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, citing unidentified officials. Iran’s military said on Saturday that it had targeted a US logistics vessel near the Omani port of Salalah on the Arabian Sea. Oman said a drone attack on the port wounded a foreign worker. Air travel has also been disrupted. On Saturday, authorities in Kuwait and in the city of Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan said airport facilities had been damaged in strikes. Fire also broke out after Iranian missiles and drones hit the Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, injuring six people. The firm Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) reported significant damage from the attack on its facility. In Iran, meanwhile, production was shut down at a major steel plant in the southwest after US-Israeli strikes, according to a statement from the Khuzestan Steel Company, cited by the Shargh newspaper. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned they will retaliate for any economic damage by striking industrial sites across the region. The Guards also said that they had found and dismantled more than 120 unexploded cluster bombs, alleging they were dropped during US and Israeli attacks several days ago on the southern province of Fars. Separately, US Central Command (Centcom) denied claims by Iran’s Guards that US “hideouts” in Dubai were struck, leaving 500 casualties. Israel announced fresh strikes on Tehran and an AFP journalist in the city reported around 10 intense blasts and a plume of black smoke overnight. A military spokesperson claimed that Israel had attacked 100 targets in Iran, including ballistic missile production sites, launch pads and air defence systems, Al Jazeera reported. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian sent a message to other countries in the region, warning: “If you want development and security, don’t let our enemies run the war from your lands.” Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the country will “accelerate” the collapse of the Israeli military and government. In a post on X, he says that according to the Israeli military chief, Tel Aviv’s military “will collapse into itself”, referring to a warning from Israeli military Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir a day prior that the armed force could collapse as a result of endless fighting. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Friday he believes Iran would hold talks with Washington “this week, we’re certainly hopeful for it”. Washington expected Tehran to respond to a 15-point US peace plan, he told a business forum in Miami. “It could solve it all.” US Vice President JD Vance also addressed the war on Iran during an interview with conservative podcaster Benny Johnson, noting Washington is “going to be out of there soon”, Al Jazeera reported. Vance claimed that while the US had achieved the majority of its military objectives, Trump plans to continue the war “for a little while longer” to ensure Iran’s government is severely hampered. In a separate development, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Gulf to discuss using his country’s experience in anti-drone technology to better defend the region from Iranian strikes. “We are talking about a 10-year cooperation. We have already signed a relevant agreement with Saudi Arabia, we have just signed a similar agreement with Qatar, also for 10 years, we will sign one with the Emirates,” Zelensky told reporters. Qatar announced a fresh missile interception on Saturday, its first in a little over a week. Published in Dawn, March 29th, 2026
DawnMarch 29, 2026 at 02:36 AM UTCWar Diary Day 29: Industrial strikes against Iran trigger wider retaliation
On the 29th day of the US-Israel war on Iran, the conflict transitioned into a more visibly regional phase as strikes on Iran’s industrial and nuclear infrastructure were met with coordinated retaliation across multiple Gulf states. Over the past 24 hours, US and Israeli operations focused on degrading Iran’s war-sustaining capacity through coordinated strikes on its three largest steel production facilities, including plants in Ahvaz and Isfahan, effectively halting output at sites considered critical for missile and drone manufacturing chains. Parallel attacks targeted nuclear infrastructure, including the Arak heavy-water plant and the Ardakan yellowcake facility, as part of exerting pressure on Iran’s strategic programmes without directly crossing into overt nuclear escalation. Civilian impact also became increasingly more visible, with reports of casualties in residential areas of Isfahan and heavy munitions used in parts of Tehran and Qom. A plume of smoke rises from the site of a strike on Tehran, Iran on March 28. — AFP Iran’s response exhibited a significant broadening of its targeting pattern, shifting more decisively toward Gulf assets linked to US and allied operations. Strikes were reported on Kuwait’s Bubiyan Island and Shuwaikh Port, where Iranian claims suggested damage to US logistical vessels, while in Saudi Arabia, a major ballistic and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base caused confirmed damage to high-value US assets, including aerial refuelling aircraft and an airborne early warning platform, with American personnel also reported wounded. In Bahrain, missile and drone strikes hit industrial facilities and a key refinery complex, alongside targeting of a US naval installation. The conflict’s multifront character continued to intensify through proxy activity. Hezbollah maintained ground engagements and ambush operations in southern Lebanon, while Yemen’s Houthi movement formally entered the conflict space with its first ballistic missile launch toward Israel, a move that, while limited in scale, carried broader signalling value about the potential activation of additional fronts. Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike on the village of Taybeh in southern Lebanon, as seen from nearby Marjeyoun on March 28. — AFP In Iraq and Jordan, Iran-aligned groups conducted strikes on air bases, further complicating the regional security picture and stretching defensive resources across a wider geography. In Bahrain, the domestic situation became increasingly volatile during the past 24 hours following the death in custody of political prisoner Muhammad al-Mousawi, which triggered a wave of protests and renewed confrontation between Shia opposition and security forces. Protests have been reported across multiple towns and cities. It is feared that sustained unrest could complicate Bahrain’s ability to manage both internal dissent and its role within the broader regional coalition. In southern Lebanon, fighting has continued at a steady and increasingly attritional pace, with Hezbollah maintaining effective ground resistance while continuing rocket and drone attacks into northern Israel. A photograph shows damaged buildings following Israeli airstrikes in the Haret Hreik neighbourhood of Beirut’s southern suburbs in Lebanon on March 28. — AFP The group’s operations have centred on coordinated ambushes along multiple border villages and towns targeting Israeli armour and supply routes. Hezbollah’s resilient fight has slowed advances and imposed material and psychological costs on Israeli forces. Failed Israeli efforts to secure key points, including towns along the Litani axis, has tied down its forces and reinforced the northern front as a persistent pressure point within the wider conflict. Economic and strategic pressures are now becoming more deeply intertwined with military developments. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted, while attacks on ports and industrial infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain underscored the vulnerability of regional supply chains. At the same time, Iran looked to be reinforcing its narrative of proportionate retaliation while simultaneously signalling potential reconsideration of its international nuclear commitments, which has added to uncertainty in the strategic outlook. Cars queue to refuel at a gas station operated by Pertamina, Indonesia’s state-owned oil and gas company, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran disrupts energy flows and global oil prices rise, in Yogyakarta, Indonesia on March 28. — AFP Diplomatically, efforts continued but remain overshadowed by events on the ground. Qatar, Oman and Kuwait are reportedly pushing quietly for a ceasefire, even as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have been signalling readiness to absorb further escalation. Washington, meanwhile, has indicated that operations could continue for several weeks. US President Donald Trump’s pause on energy infrastructure strikes appeared to be notional in scope because of the targeting of Iranian energy and industrial capacity. The overall trajectory at the end of Day 29 suggests that the conflict was increasingly drawing in the wider region through both deliberate targeting and proxy activation. While US and Israeli strikes were aimed at degrading elements of Iran’s industrial and strategic base, Tehran has, meanwhile, demonstrated an ability to extend the battlefield geographically and impose costs on multiple fronts. The risk of further horizontal escalation, going forward, remains high, and the coming days are likely to test the resilience of both regional states and the broader international system tied to Gulf stability. Header image: A member of the Iranian Red Crescent walks past the wreckage of a vehicle at a car service centre in eastern Tehran, Iran, which was hit by a missile strike on March 28. — AFP
DawnMarch 28, 2026 at 03:36 PM UTC