United States air refueller downed over Iraq in Iran conflict
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View on mapOne month into Iran war, only hard choices for Trump
With global energy prices up and his job approval ratings down, Donald Trump faces stark choices after a month of war against Iran: cut a potentially flawed deal and get out, or escalate militarily and risk a prolonged conflict that could consume his presidency. Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, Trump ends another week of the joint US-Israeli campaign struggling to contain a widening Middle East crisis as a defiant Iran maintains a chokehold on Gulf oil and gas shipments and continues missile and drone strikes across the region. The central question now, say analysts, is whether Trump is ready to wind down or ramp up what critics have called a war of choice, one that has ignited the worst global energy supply shock in history and spread far beyond the region. Trump has told aides he wants to avoid a forever war and find a negotiated exit, urging them to stress the four-to-six-week duration of hostilities he has outlined publicly, a senior White House official said, adding that such a timeline appears shaky. At the same time, Trump has threatened a major military escalation if talks fail. Trumps diplomatic overtures to Iran, including a 15-point peace proposal sent via a backchannel with Pakistan, appeared to demonstrate an increasingly urgent search for an off-ramp. But it remains unclear whether there are currently any realistic prospects for fruitful negotiations. President Trump has poor options all around to end the war, said Jonathan Panikoff, former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East. Part of the challenge is the lack of clarity related to what a satisfactory outcome would be. A White House official insisted that the Iran campaign “will conclude when the commander-in-chief determines that our objectives are met” and that Trump had laid out explicit goals. Struggling to contain expanding war Apparently hedging his bets, Trump is deploying thousands more US troops to the region and warning Iran of an intensified onslaught, possibly including the use of ground troops, if it does not yield to his demands. Analysts say such a show of force could be aimed at creating leverage for concessions from Tehran but risks drawing the US into a more protracted conflict, with any commitment of boots on Iranian soil likely to anger many American voters. Another possible scenario, experts say, would be for the US to wage a final major air assault in “Operation Epic Fury” to further degrade Irans military capabilities and nuclear sites, after which Trump would declare victory and walk away, saying his war objectives had been achieved. But such a claim would ring hollow unless the vital Strait of Hormuz is completely reopened, which Iran is so far refusing to allow. Trump has voiced frustration over European allies’ refusal to send warships to help secure the waterway. Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to keep the US out of foreign conflicts, is seemingly struggling to contain the expanding war that he started along with Israel. Even as he has continued issuing triumphalist assessments, he has increasingly geared his messaging to reassuring nervous financial markets, pressing senior aides to emphasise that the war will be over soon, according to the senior White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. But the lack of a clear exit strategy carries dangers both for Trump’s presidential legacy and his party’s prospects as Republicans scramble to defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections. Trump’s biggest miscalculation has been the extent of Tehran’s retaliation. It has used its remaining missiles and drones to strike Israel and neighboring Gulf states and mostly close the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for one-fifth of the world’s oil, sending shockwaves through the global economy. The Iranian government’s bet is that they can take more pain for longer than their adversaries, and they might be right, said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. The White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump and his team were “well-prepared” for Iran’s response in the strait and are confident it will reopen soon. Even so, the clearest sign of Trump’s growing anxiety about the war came on Monday with his dramatic climbdown from a threat to destroy Iran’s power grid if it did not allow shipping to resume through the strait. In a move widely seen as intended to calm markets, he declared a five-day pause in carrying out his threat in order to give diplomacy a chance. On Thursday, he extended that for another 10 days. At the same time, pressure is building at home. Opinion polls show the war is overwhelmingly unpopular with Americans, and while Trump’s MAGA movement has mostly stood with him, his grip on his political base could weaken if the economic impact, including high gas prices, persists. Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to 36 per cent, the lowest since his return to the White House, a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday found. The White House has grown increasingly worried about the political fallout from the war, a former senior Trump administration official told Reuters, citing concerns expressed by Republican lawmakers about the coming midterm elections. In an indication of growing Republican disquiet, US Representative Mike Rogers, chair of the House Armed Services Committee, criticised the administration on Thursday for not providing enough information on the scope of the Iran campaign. Pushing back, the White House official said Trump aides had briefed Congress numerous times before and during the war. Fraught diplomacy complicated by killings For now, however, the diplomatic path offers no easy solutions. The 15-point plan put forth by Trump is similar to what Iran had mostly rejected in pre-war negotiations and includes some elements that would be hard to enforce. The demands range from dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and curbing its missile arsenal to abandoning its proxy groups and effectively handing over control of the strait. Iran called the US offer unfair and unrealistic — though it did not rule out further indirect contacts. While Trump insisted on Thursday that Iran was begging to reach a deal, the country’s rulers appear in no rush to negotiate an end to the conflict, analysts say, since they believe they will be in a position to claim victory simply by surviving. Complicating any diplomatic effort has been the replacement of some leaders killed in US-Israeli airstrikes with even more hardline successors, analysts say. The rulers have made clear their distrust of Trump, who twice in the past year has launched airstrikes while both sides were still negotiating. “The president is willing to listen, but if they fail to accept the reality of the current moment, they will be hit harder than ever before,” said the White House official. Israeli officials, meanwhile, have signaled unease that Trump might make concessions that could tie their hands in further strikes against Iran. Washingtons Gulf allies may also resent a hasty US exit, given they could be left with a wounded, hostile neighbour. Contradictory signals keep opponents off-balance If Trump is indeed prepared to deploy ground forces, he could take over Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub or other strategic islands, mount operations along its coast, or send special forces for what would be a complex attempt to seize its stockpile of highly enriched uranium believed mostly buried underground by US-Israeli bombing last June. Such moves could spiral into a broader conflict evoking echoes of the long-running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that Trump has promised the US would never be dragged into on his watch. They would also risk increased American casualties and raise more questions about US mission objectives. Gulf allies have warned the administration not to put US troops on the ground in Iran, saying it could trigger more retaliation from Tehran, possibly against their energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official said on condition of anonymity. The White House official said Trump had made clear “he has no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time,” but added that he always keeps all options on the table. For now, Trump is keeping the world guessing, one moment making pronouncements aimed at soothing volatile markets and in the next issuing threats that spike energy prices. Trump traffics in contradictory signals, said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. He is a one-man fog of war messaging machine to keep opponents off-balance.”
DawnMarch 28, 2026 at 05:57 AM UTCAttacks on Iran’s N-plants, steelworks belie ‘messaging’
• IAEA voices concern as US-Israeli air strikes hit uranium plant, heavy water facility • Araghchi vows to exact heavy price; IRGC says industrial sites in region are now targets • UN forms task force to keep ships moving thru Hormuz as Guards vow to block ‘enemy vessels’ • Rubio confirms exchange of messages, says US still doesn’t know who they’ll be talking to TEHRAN / WASHINGTON: Despite talking peace, the US and Israel invoked concern from the world nuclear watchdog when air strikes hit a uranium processing facility in Arak and a heavy water reactor in Khondab. The attacks came a day after US President Donald Trump extended a deadline by 10 days for Iran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz or face att acks against its civilian energy grid. Israel’s army confirmed that it struck the two facilities, while Iranian sources said there was no release of radioactive material at either site. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had been informed by Iran “that the Shahid Rezayee Nejad Yellow Cake Production Facility in Yazd province” was attacked, but noted that “no increase in off-site radiation levels” was reported. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would exact a “HEAVY price for Israeli crimes”. He revealed that that strikes had also targeted, Khuzestan Steel and Mobarakeh Steel, two of Iran’s largest steel factories. The attack “contradicts [Donald Trump’s] extended deadline for diplomacy”, he said. Meanwhile Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) warned that they would strike industrial sites in the region in response to the attacks, and warned civilians working in such plants to “leave their workplaces immediately”. Iran’s Vice President Esmael Saghab Esfahani threatened on X to attack Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, home to the Samref oil refinery, as well as the coastal Fujairah oil complex in the United Arab Emirates, should a ground invasion take place. Hormuz task force The troubled Hormuz waterway also remained a focus of international attention, as the United Nations moved to set up a task force to keep trade flowing through the strait, even as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) turned back three ships, saying that the route was closed to vessels travelling to and from ports linked to its “enemies”. The envisaged task force would be based on initiatives like the Black Sea Grain Initiative for Ukraine and the UN2720 Mechanism for Gaza, and be led by UN Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva, executive director of the United Nations Office for Project Services. In Paris, meanwhile, G7 allies pressed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for clarity on American plans for Iran. After the meeting, Rubio claimed to have won support from his G7 colleagues to oppose Iran’s attempts to impose a toll on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a key sea lane for oil and gas shipments from the Gulf. A total of 34 ships have been approved by Iran to transit the strait recently, using a route around Larak Island just off the country’s coast, according to analysts at leading shipping journal Lloyd’s List — which dubs the system the “Tehran toll booth”. Separately, Kuwait said on Friday its main commercial port was damaged in a drone attack at dawn. Exchange of messages But the top US diplomat declared that Washington expects its military operation to prove victorious within a couple of weeks. “When we are done with them here in the next couple weeks, they will be weaker than they’ve been in recent history,” Rubio told reporters in Paris after G7 talks. While he said Washington could achieve its aims without ground troops, he acknowledged that it was deploying some to the region “to give the President maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust the contingencies, should they emerge”. Washington has dispatched two contingents of thousands of Marines to the region, the first of which is due to arrive around the end of March aboard a huge amphibious assault ship. The Pentagon is also expected to deploy thousands of elite airborne soldiers. The deployments have raised concern that an air war that has already disrupted global energy supplies could turn into a prolonged ground battle. Talking about the ongoing negotiations between the two warring sides, which are being facilitated by Pakistan, Mr Rubio said: “We’ve had an exchange of messages and indications from the Iranian system… about a willingness to talk about certain things”. “We’re waiting for further clarification about… who is it that we will be talking to, what will we be talking about and when will we be talking,” he told reporters. While Iranian officials have publicly rebuffed US diplomacy, they have said they are keeping channels open through third countries to exchange messages. An Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that senior officials had reviewed the US proposal and felt it served only US and Israeli interests, although diplomacy had not ended. Published in Dawn, March 28th, 2026
DawnMarch 28, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTCUS can only confirm about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal destroyed, sources say
The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal as the US and Israeli war on the country nears its one-month mark, according to five people familiar with the US intelligence. The status of around another third is less clear but bombings likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four of the sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitive nature of the information. One of the sources said the intelligence was similar for Iran’s drone capability, saying there was some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed. The assessment shows that while most of Iran’s missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops. The intelligence stands in contrast to President Donald Trump’s public remarks on Thursday that Iran had “very few rockets left”. He also appeared to acknowledge the threat from remaining Iranian missiles and drones to any future US operations to safeguard the economically vital Strait of Hormuz. “The problem with the straits is this: let’s say we do a great job. We say we got 99 per cent [of their missiles]. One per cent is unacceptable, because 1pc is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars,” Trump said at a televised cabinet meeting on Thursday. Asked for comment, a Pentagon official said Iranian missile and drone attacks were down by about 90pc since the start of the war. The US military’s Central Command “has also damaged or destroyed over 66pc of Iranian missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards,” the official added. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Democratic Rep Seth Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who served four tours in Iraq, declined to comment on Reuters’ findings but he disputed Trump’s claims about the impact of the war on Iran’s arsenal. “If Iran is smart they’ve retained some of their capability; they’re not using everything that they have. And they’re laying in wait,” Moulton said. Iran’s missiles are prime US targets The Trump administration has said it aims to weaken Iran’s military by sinking its navy, destroying its missile and drone capability and ensuring that the Islamic republic never has a nuclear weapon. Central Command has said its operation, known officially as “Epic Fury”, is on schedule or even ahead of plans laid out prior to the February 28 start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. US says its strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of Wednesday and, according to Central Command, have sunk 92 percent of the Iranian navy’s large vessels. The US military has published imagery showing attacks on the factories that produce Iran’s weaponry and has stressed that it is not just pursuing missile and drone stockpiles, but the industry that makes them. Still, Central Command has declined to state precisely how much of Iran’s missile or drone capability has been destroyed. One source said part of the problem is determining how many Iranian missiles were stockpiled in underground bunkers before the war started. The US has not disclosed its estimate of the size of Iran’s pre-war missile stockpile. Israeli military officials say Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war. Over 335 missile launchers have been “neutralised”, representing 70pc of Iran’s launch capacity, a senior Israeli military official claimed. Israeli officials have not publicly disclosed how many actual missiles they believe Iran still possesses. They privately acknowledge that eliminating what they estimate to be the last 30pc of Iran’s capacity will be relatively more difficult to achieve. Iran still firing at neighbours Despite the heavy pace of US strikes, Iran has demonstrated that it has not run out of weapons. On Thursday alone, it fired 15 ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates, along with 11 drones, according to the UAE’s Defence Ministry. It has also displayed new capabilities. Last week Iranian forces for the first time fired long-range missiles, targeting the US-UK military base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iran’s missile forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at Paris’ Sciences Po university, said the Trump administration may have overstated how much US strikes have degraded Iranian capabilities. She pointed to Iran being able to continue to carry out strikes from Bid Kaneh military facility, which has been heavily bombed. “The fact that they’ve managed to sustain this, I think, indicates the US was overstating the success of its operation,” Grajewski said, adding she believed that Iran still retained about 30pc of its missile capabilities. Grajewski said Iran had more than a dozen large underground facilities where it has been able to keep launchers and missiles, adding: “The big question is: have these facilities collapsed?” Iran’s tunnelling One senior US official voiced skepticism about the United States’ ability to accurately assess Iran’s missile capabilities, in part because it was unclear how many were underground and accessible in some way. “I don’t know if we’ll ever have an accurate number,” the official said. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged the challenge posed by Iran’s tunneling in remarks on March 19, saying: “Iran is a vast country. And just like Hamas and their tunnels (in Gaza), they’ve poured any aid, any economic development, humanitarian aid, into tunnels and rockets.” “But we are hunting them down methodically, ruthlessly and overwhelmingly, like no other military in the world can do, and the results speak for themselves,” he said, without providing details on the percentage of missiles or drones destroyed.
DawnMarch 27, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTCRubio says war on Iran to last ‘weeks not months’, no US ground troops needed
The war in the Gulf is still expected to last weeks, not months, and Washington can meet all its objectives without using ground troops, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday. Rubio told reporters after meeting G7 counterparts in France that Washington was “on or ahead of schedule in that operation, and expect to conclude it at the appropriate time here — a matter of weeks, not months.” While he said Washington could achieve its aims without ground troops, he acknowledged that it was deploying some to the region “to give the president maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust the contingencies, should they emerge”. Washington has dispatched two contingents of thousands of Marines to the region, the first of which is due to arrive around the end of March aboard a huge amphibious assault ship. The Pentagon is also expected to deploy thousands of elite airborne soldiers. The deployments have raised concern that an air war that has already disrupted global energy supplies could turn into a prolonged ground battle. But US President Donald Trump also emphasised this week what he described as “productive negotiations” aimed at a diplomatic solution to the war, despite repeated assertions from Tehran that no such talks have begun. Rubio said Washington was still waiting for a formal response from Iran to a 15-point proposal it sent this week. “We’ve had an exchange of messages and indications from the Iranian system, whatever’s left of it, about a willingness to talk about certain things,” Rubio said. “We’re waiting for further clarification about … who is it that we will be talking to, what will we be talking about and when will we be talking.” For its part, Iran says it has rejected the proposal. On Thursday, Trump extended a deadline by 10 days for Iran to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz or face attacks against its civilian energy grid. He said talks were “going very well”. A source briefed on the matter told Reuters that Trump and top White House officials had been told via interlocutors that an Iranian counter-proposal was likely to arrive later on Friday. The US proposal is reported to include demands ranging from dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes to relinquishing control of the world’s most important trade route for energy supplies. While Iranian officials have publicly rebuffed US diplomacy, they have said they are keeping channels open through third countries to exchange messages. An Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that senior officials had reviewed the US proposal and felt it served only US and Israeli interests, although diplomacy had not ended.
DawnMarch 27, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTCWar Diary Day 28: Pressure builds as pause on strikes on Iran extended
On the 28th day of the US-Israel war against Iran, US President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the “pause” on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6 created the appearance of a diplomatic opening; but in effect, it reflected an attempt to buy time amid rising military, economic and political pressures, while keeping escalation options firmly on the table. The extension, framed by Washington as a response to “ongoing talks,” has been rejected by Tehran as psychological signalling, with Iranian officials maintaining that no such request was made and reiterating their rejection of the US proposal. This difference in itself underscores the underlying reality that the pause is less about de-escalation and more about managing the pace of escalation, allowing the US and Israel to sustain pressure through other means while avoiding an immediate dive into full-scale energy warfare. On the battlefield, the conflict continued to operate at a high intensity. Iranian ballistic missile barrages and Hezbollah strikes over the past 24 hours have kept pressure on Israeli territory, triggering repeated air raid alerts and reinforcing the pattern of sustained, distributed retaliation. Iranian missile launches from sites, including the repeatedly targeted Yazd missile complex, prove that despite ongoing strikes and the claims about obliteration of Iranian capacity, Tehran retains operational depth. The tail fin of a large missile protrudes from a field, following barrages of missiles from Iran towards Israel, amid the US-Israel war on Iran, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights March 19, 2026. — Reuters US and Israeli forces, for their part, have continued precision targeting of Iranian civilian infrastructure, and missile production, air defence and naval sites. The strikes on missile and sea mine production facilities, alongside attacks on storage and launcher sites seem to be aimed at degrading Iranian capacity over time rather than achieving immediate tactical advantage. Meanwhile, the reports about US sea drone activity point to an expanding operational toolkit in the maritime domain. Next phase? At the same time, it is patently clear that preparations for a possible next phase are afoot. The movement of additional forces into the region tell the story — the Pentagon is implementing its plan to seize strategic Iranian Islands, whether it’s Kharg or lesser significant ones. The additional troops being flown into the theatre to augment an already existing 50,000 force include amphibious and airborne elements that would support limited objectives linked to control of the Strait of Hormuz. While no such operation has yet been initiated, the steady buildup leaves little doubt that the military track is being advanced in the cover of a diplomatic one. The economic dimension remains the defining feature of this conflict. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively collapsed, with a sharp reduction in vessel movement in the outgoing month because of operational risks and insurance constraints. There has been a 96 per cent reduction in traffic through the Strait so far, with only 116 vessels having crossed through. Iran has so far effectively leveraged this disruption as a source of pressure, maintaining selective exports while asserting a more regulated approach to maritime access. In this situation, oil prices remain elevated, though pushed below $100 mark, through some optimistic signaling about a peaceful settlement by Trump. Nevertheless, broader supply chain effects have continued to build. A particularly significant development over the past day has been the emergence of a serious strain within Israeli military structures. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has warned his country’s political leadership that the force was at risk of “collapsing in on itself” due to manpower shortages, repeated reserve mobilisations and because of fighting across multiple fronts, including Iran, Lebanon and the West Bank. The warning exposes the aggravating challenge for Israel to sustain prolonged high-intensity operations and the introduction of a new variable into the conflict’s trajectory. Israeli army soldiers stand next to a self-propelled Howitzer artillery gun positioned in the upper Galilee in northern Israel near the border with southern Lebanon on March 27, 2026. — AFP Endurance and calibrated escalation On the Iranian side, the strategy remains that of combining endurance with calibrated escalation. Missile capabilities appear intact to a reasonable extent, with indications emerging that more advanced systems are still being held in reserve, while internal security measures, including arrests of suspected sabotage networks, tell us about the vigilance against internal covert threats. At the same time, Iranian messaging has expanded to include explicit warnings that targets associated with US and allied presence in the Gulf, more specifically in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, could be brought into the conflict if escalation crosses certain thresholds. Diplomatically, the gap between positions has remained unchanged despite the deadline of the initial five-day pause passing and Trump unilaterally extending it. Iranians have stuck to the demands for an end to attacks, guarantees against future aggression, compensation and a broader settlement that includes multiple regional fronts, while rejecting core elements of the US proposal. External actors, including Germany, China, Turkiye and Egypt, have called for engagement, but without altering the underlying dynamics. The extension of the pause, therefore, reflects a dual-track approach wherein military preparations are proceeding under the diplomatic cover. For Washington, it provides breathing space amid domestic economic pressure and allied concerns, while maintaining pressure on Tehran. For Iran, the delay, and not formal cessation of hostilities, will be a strain on its limited resources. A man looks at a residential building damaged by a strike, amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 27, 2026. — AFP Effect on timeline or trajectory? Over the past 24 hours, Hezbollah has maintained high-intensity pressure on northern and central Israel through coordinated missile and drone strikes, including large-scale salvos targeting areas south of Haifa, including launches originating from southern Lebanon, where its forces continue to actively resist Israeli intrusions despite the Lebanese army’s withdrawal from forward positions. Hezbollah appears to have adapted its battlefield structure by elevating new and relatively unknown field commanders, which has reduced the effectiveness of Israel’s pre-existing target bank and complicated counter-strike planning. On the Israeli side, air sorties and precision strikes into southern Lebanon have declined noticeably because of constraints linked to guided munition shortages and operations are now largely dominated by ground engagements. The inability of Israeli forces to secure the town of Khiyam for a third consecutive week, despite the Lebanese government’s claims that Hezbollah presence there had been cleared, has added to operational and psychological strain for the Israelis. At the same time, the Houthis in Yemen have remained in a state of high operational readiness without yet entering the conflict. Assessments indicate that Houthis are being held as a strategic reserve that could be activated if and when US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure start, in which case disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Saudi export routes through Yanbu would become immediate objectives. In Iraq, Iranian-aligned groups have remained comparatively restrained over the past day, with no major kinetic activity reported. The overall assessment at the end of Day 28 is that the structural drivers of escalation have remained intact and the immediate implication of the extended deadline is that it has only shifted the conflict’s timeline without altering its trajectory. It has also increased the risk that the next phase, when it comes, could be sharper and more consequential. Header image: A view of a residential building damaged by a strike, amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 27, 2026. — Reuters
DawnMarch 27, 2026 at 01:30 PM UTCNo let-up in US-Israeli strikes on Iran despite peace push
TEHRAN: Protesters carrying flags and placards attend an anti-US and Israel rally, even as bombs continued to fall on the Iranian capital.—Reuters • Staff safe as neighbourhood housing Pakistan embassy comes under heavy bombardment • Tabriz, Bandar Abbas, Mashhad, Birjand hit; Iran retaliates with strikes on Tel Aviv, Haifa • NYT says most personnel forced to ‘work remotely’ as US bases in Gulf rendered uninhabitable • In series of extraordinary claims, Trump circumspect about US involvement with Nato, says Iran let 10 tankers thru Hormuz ‘as a gift’ TEHRAN / WASHINGTON: Amid diplomatic overtures and backchannel attempts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, the US-Israel offensive against Iran continues unabated, with the neighbourhood housing the Pakistan embassy in Tehran among those being targeted by air strikes. Warplanes could be heard overhead in northern districts of Tehran after dark, and shortly thereafter several loud explosions rang out. Reports suggested that the neighbourhoods of Fatimid and Pasdaran — which house Islamabad’s embassy and Pakistan House — were heavily bombed. However, these buildings were not targeted. The embassy had already shifted away from the Iranian capital since the start of the war, with staff only returning briefly for the Pakistan Day ceremony on March 23, a diplomatic source told Dawn. Iranian media reported US-Israeli attacks in the central cities of Isfahan and Shiraz, in Bandar Abbas in the south and Tabriz in the northwest, but also Mashhad and Birjand, towards the Afghan border in an area largely spared until now. On Thursday, Iran launched multiple waves of its own missiles at Israel, striking Tel Aviv, Haifa and other areas. At least one ballistic missile hit Tel Aviv, according to the military, while others carried cluster munitions that dispersed smaller explosives, damaging homes and cars. On Thursday, Israel also claimed the assassination of Iran’s naval chief Alireza Tangsiri and several senior officers, but there was no confirmation of this from Tehran until going to press. Meanwhile, at least two people killed by debris from an Iranian ballistic missile intercepted near Abu Dhabi, and drones fired at both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. US bases emptied The New York Times reported that as a result of Iranian retaliatory bombing, many American troops had been forced to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout the region. Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage. In Qatar, Iran struck Al Udeid Air Base, the regional air headquarters of US Central Command, damaging an early-warning radar system. In Bahrain, a one-way Iranian attack drone struck communications equipment at the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet. At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Iranian missiles and drones damaged communications equipment and several refueling tankers. “So now much of the land-based military is, in essence, fighting the war while working remotely, with the exception of fighter pilots and crews operating and maintaining warplanes and conducting strikes,” the NYT reported. Although the Pentagon claimed this was not stopping the US from carrying out its operations, the relocation of troops to makeshift sites raises questions about the Trump administration’s preparations for the war. There were close to 40,000 US troops in the region when the war started, and Central Command has dispersed thousands of them, some to as far away as Europe, American military officials said. But many have remained in the Middle East, although not on their original bases, NYT quoted military officials as saying. Trump’s meandering claims Meanwhile, following his first cabinet meeting since the war began, US President Donald Trump made a number of statements, first describing the Iranians as “great negotiators”, but later saying he was not sure he was “willing to make a deal with them to end the war”. He denied being “desperate” to make a deal with Iran, and veered between repeated threats to “obliterate” it, and claims Tehran was on the verge of capitulating. Trump then claimed that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz as a “present” to show it was serious about negotiations to end the war. Referring to his cryptic comments earlier this week about a “gift” from Tehran, Trump eight “big boats of oil” were allowed to transit the waterway earlier this week, followed by two others later on. “They said to show you the fact that we’re real and solid and we’re there, we’re gonna let you have eight boats of oil. Eight big boats of oil,” he said, adding: “I think they were Pakistani flagged.” Insisting that the US did not need the Strait of Hormuz because his country was not affected by its closure, he then pivoted to saying that taking control of Iran’s oil was an “option,” as the United States effectively did with Venezuela. The US president also spent much of his time lambasting Nato and other allies for rejecting his appeals to help secure Hormuz, blasting the British aircraft carriers London eventually offered as “toys” compared to their US equivalents. “I’ve done a great favor for the world. The world has not been reciprocal,” Trump said. “I believe that’s going to cost them dearly.” When asked about the future of US involvement in Nato, he was circumspect, saying: “We’re always gonna be there. At least we were. I don’t know anymore, to be honest with you.” However, he also underscored his desire for peace, recalling for the umpteenth time his role in negotiating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan last year. “I wish it could have been resolved faster. I’ve solved other issues in a single day that had lingered for 32 years,” he said. “We stopped one that had already begun, involving India and Pakistan.” He also recalled that “the Prime Minister of Pakistan, a truly fine gentleman, acknowledged that ‘President Trump resolved a situation that could have cost 10 million lives.’ These were complex, nuclear-level challenges, yet we acted swiftly.” Published in Dawn, March 27th, 2026
DawnMarch 27, 2026 at 02:37 AM UTCWar Diary Day 27: Multifront escalation in US-Israeli war on Iran appears imminent
On 27th day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the conflict has continued to be fully kinetic with no sign of de-escalation, even as US President Donald Trump’s five-day pause expires on Friday. Meanwhile, the overall trajectory of the conflict points towards an imminent widening of hostilities across multiple theatres. Over the past 24 hours, direct strikes inside Iran intensified. Multiple explosions were reported across central, southern and eastern Tehran, with air defence systems activated across the capital, while additional strikes hit Khorramabad, triggering blackouts and being followed by rescue operations. Reports also indicated damage in areas where residences and infrastructure are located in Mashhad. Iran’s response, both directly and through its regional network of allies, showed a marked escalation in tempo and scale. Missile and drone strikes continued against Israeli targets, with reports suggesting improved penetration rates against air defences and expanded targeting of defence, industrial and processing facilities, including a strike on the ICL Rotem complex in the Negev. Claims of strikes at multiple locations, including areas near Dimona and Haifa, alongside attacks on US positions in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, reinforced the pattern of distributed retaliation. The Lebanese front The most significant escalation, however, was visible on the Lebanese front, where Hezbollah sharply increased both the intensity and effectiveness of its operations. A series of coordinated ambushes across multiple axes in southern Lebanon, including Taybeh, Markaba and Khiam, resulted in heavy Israeli armour losses, with field reports describing the destruction of a large number of Merkava tanks and supporting vehicles within a short span. This was accompanied by some of the heaviest rocket barrages reported so far, targeting not only northern Israel but extending to Tel Aviv and other strategic locations. This combination of ground attrition and long range strikes suggests that Hezbollah is seeking to shape the battlespace ahead of any potential escalation linked to the expiry of the US pause, while reinforcing deterrence through visible battlefield successes. The messaging accompanying these operations, particularly the emphasis on reciprocal population displacement, points to an increasingly hardened posture. Alongside Lebanon, the maritime dimension is also showing signs of activation. The Houthis have signalled readiness to resume attacks on shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the prospect of a second critical chokepoint coming under pressure at a time when the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. The simultaneous choking of the two waterways, when it happens, will be part of a broader Iranian strategy of horizontal escalation. The diplomatic front Diplomatically, the picture remains constrained despite continued backchannel activity. Iran has formally responded to and rejected the US proposal conveyed through intermediaries, reiterating its core conditions which include an immediate end to attacks, guarantees against future aggression, compensation for damages, simultaneous cessation of hostilities across all fronts, and recognition of its position on the Strait of Hormuz. These demands underline the structural gap between Tehran and Washington, which continues to demand far reaching restrictions on nuclear and missile related matters. Iranian officials have maintained that negotiations cannot take place under active military pressure, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly rejecting the idea of talks while strikes continue. Iranian state narratives have portrayed US references to diplomacy as attempts to manage perceptions and stabilise markets rather than signal genuine intent. At the same time, internal developments within Iran point to further consolidation of a security driven approach, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming greater influence and hardline voices gaining ground. This shift is narrowing the space for compromise and reinforcing a strategy centred on endurance and calibrated escalation. Next phase in the offing? On the US and Israeli side, indications of preparation for a possible next phase are becoming more visible. Political signalling in Washington has included open references to potential ground operations, while military assessments continue to focus on options such as the seizure of key islands, including Kharg, Larak, Qeshm and Kish, to alter the balance in the Strait of Hormuz. The overall assessment at the end of day 27 is that the diplomatic window created by the US pause is closing without producing convergence, while the military dynamics across Iran, Lebanon and the maritime domain are moving in the opposite direction. With the pause expiring, both sides appear to be positioning for a more decisive phase, raising the risk that the conflict could transition from its current attritional pattern to a broader and more intense confrontation in the coming days. Header image: People wave national flags and hold portraits of Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei as they march in support of the Iranian armed forces in central Tehran on March 25, 2026. — AFP
DawnMarch 26, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTCIsrael strikes Iran as Trump says Tehran wants deal to end war
Israel launched strikes across Iran on Thursday, hours after US President Donald Trump said Tehran wanted a deal to end the nearly four-week war despite its top diplomat rejecting any talks with Washington. The conflict has mushroomed to draw in nations around the Middle East, sending energy markets into a tailspin and threatening to torpedo the global economy. Iran, under near-daily bombardment since a joint US-Israeli attack started the war on February 28, was hit early on Thursday by what the Israeli army said was “a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure”, including in the central city of Isfahan. In turn, an Iranian missile attack activated sirens across central Israel, including Tel Aviv and parts of Jerusalem, on Thursday morning, according to the Israeli military, the first launches it identified from Iran in more than 14 hours. Trump, whose daily statements have swung wildly from threatening to conciliatory, said talks to end the war were ongoing with Iran, but that officials in Tehran were covering them up out of fear. “They are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly,” Trump told a dinner for Republican members of Congress. “But they’re afraid to say it, because they figure they’ll be killed by their own people,” he said. “They’re also afraid they’ll be killed by us.” The Islamic republic’s top diplomat slapped down Trump’s comments, saying the country did not intend to negotiate. “We seek an end to the war on our own terms, of course, and in a way that it will not be repeated here again,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state TV. Pakistan has passed on a 15-point US plan to stop the fighting to Tehran, two officials in Islamabad said. But Iran’s state media Press TV cited an unidentified official saying Tehran had “responded negatively” to the proposal. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump “does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell” on Iran if no deal is struck. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, meanwhile, said that signs both sides could be open to talks offered a “glimmer of hope” for peace. Iranian conditions According to The New York Times, the 15-point US plan touches on Iran’s contested nuclear and missile programmes as well as “maritime routes”. Tehran has largely blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz oil route in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks, pushing up global energy prices. The Iranian official quoted by Press TV said Tehran had put forward its own five conditions for hostilities to end. These include guarantees that the United States and Israel do not resume the war and compensation for war damages. Iranians marched in support of the country’s military in the capital Tehran on Wednesday, waving the country’s flag and holding pictures of new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The head of the US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, claimed on Wednesday that Washington has hit two-thirds of Iran’s production facilities for missiles and drones, and a similar proportion of its naval production. Iran has still kept up retaliatory attacks on Israel and Gulf nations that it accuses of serving as launchpads for US strikes. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted at least 18 drones, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) responded to a new missile and drone attack, and Bahrain reported a fire at a facility caused by “Iranian aggression”, without providing further details. Kuwait also reported a new missile and drone attack on Thursday, a day after a drone hit a fuel tank and sparked a fire at Kuwait International Airport. No Lebanon ‘surrender’ Israeli military actions in Lebanon have also intensified since the Iran war, with Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel on March 2 to avenge Khamenei’s killing. Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said negotiations with Israel would amount to “surrender”, before the group launched missiles early on Thursday at military sites in central Israel, where air raid sirens sounded. The group said its fighters launched more than 80 attacks against Israel on Wednesday, the largest daily number in the current war, and attacked Israeli forces in nine border towns. As the fighting showed little sign of respite, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military had “created a genuine security zone” in southern Lebanon and was expanding it. “We are simply creating a larger buffer zone” that could prevent a ground invasion of Israel and missile attacks, he said in a video shared by his office. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on both sides to stop fighting. Markets mixed With thousands more US troops reportedly headed to the Middle East, Iran also threatened to open a new front by targeting Red Sea shipping should the United States launch a ground invasion. In the event of a US ground invasion, Iran would block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, an unnamed military official told local media. The divergent messages on talks and de-escalation saw oil prices rise on Thursday and equities mixed as developments were tracked by investors recently buoyed by Trump appearing to step back from the goal of regime change earlier in the week. But while crude prices are down from last week, uncertainty and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20 per cent of oil and gas passes — continued to cast a shadow. Araghchi assured the strait was “closed only to enemies” of Iran. “There is no reason to allow the ships of our enemies and their allies to pass,” he said. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, whose government has offered to host talks between Iranian and American envoys to stop the war, appeared to take a jab at the US operation that has closed the key waterway. “The goal of the war seems to have shifted to opening the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war,” Khawaja Asif posted on X, alongside hand-clapping emojis.
DawnMarch 26, 2026 at 06:45 AM UTCIran rejects US proposal, lays out 5 conditions for ending war
Iran’s state-owned broadcaster Press TV reported on Wednesday that Tehran had “responded negatively” to an American proposal aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on the country. The report cited a senior political-security official. “The official with knowledge of the details of the proposal, speaking exclusively to Press TV, said Iran will not allow US President Donald Trump to dictate the timing of the war’s end,” the report said. The development came after it emerged that Pakistan had delivered a proposal from the US to Iran, and either Pakistan or Turkiye could be venues for discussions to de-escalate the war in the Gulf. According to the report, the official said, “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met.“ The official also emphasised Tehran’s resolve to continue its defence and inflict “heavy blows” on the enemy until its demands are fulfilled, the publication said. “According to the official, Washington has been pursuing negotiations through various diplomatic channels, putting forward proposals that Tehran views as ‘excessive’ and disconnected from the reality of America’s failure on the battlefield, the report said. It further stated that the official had outlined five conditions under which Tehran would agree to end the ongoing conflict. These included: A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz “The official further noted that these stipulations are in addition to demands previously presented by Tehran during the second round of negotiations in Geneva, which took place just days before the US and Israel carried out a fresh round of aggression on February 28,” the report said. The publication also reported that Iran had communicated to “all intermediaries acting in good faith” that a ceasefire was contingent upon the acceptance of all of its conditions. “No negotiations will be held prior to that,” the official stressed, reiterating that Iran’s defensive operations would persist until the outlined conditions are met. “The end of the war will occur when Iran decides it should end, not when Trump envisions its conclusion,” he added. On Tuesday, US media reported that Washington had sent a peace plan to Iran after Trump voiced optimism at ending nearly a month of warfare. Trump, whose pronouncements in recent days have swung wildly from vowing massive attacks on Iran to declaring the nearly month-long war virtually over, said the United States was “in negotiations right now” with Iran. “They did something yesterday that was amazing actually. They gave us a present and the present arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “That meant one thing to me — we’re dealing with the right people.” He did not explain further but said it related to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely blockaded in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes, sending global energy prices soaring.
DawnMarch 25, 2026 at 03:12 PM UTCUS reportedly sends peace plan as Iran opens Strait of Hormuz to ‘non-hostile’ oil vessels
Washington sent a peace plan to Iran, US media reported, as Donald Trump voiced optimism Tuesday at ending nearly a month of warfare and Tehran announced that it will let “non-hostile” oil vessels go through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The tentative signs of a diplomatic solution came despite new violence. Trump, whose pronouncements in recent days have swung wildly from vowing massive attacks on Iran to declaring the nearly month-long war virtually over, said the United States was “in negotiations right now” with Iran. “They did something yesterday that was amazing actually. They gave us a present and the present arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “That meant one thing to me — we’re dealing with the right people.” He did not explain further but said it related to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely blockaded in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes, sending global energy prices soaring. Iran, in a message circulated by the International Maritime Organisation shortly afterwards, assured safe passage to “non-hostile vessels” going through the strait, the gateway for one-fifth of the world’s oil. Iran had already, in recent days, said it was not targeting friendly nations, although many vessels have shied away as insurance companies refuse to take risks. The benchmark price of crude oil dropped close to six per cent after the latest developments. Prices at the pump have soared in the United States after the war by Trump, causing him a political headache. New nuclear deal? Trump had earlier threatened to “obliterate“ Iran’s power plants, which some argue would be a war crime, if it did not open the strait by late Monday Washington time. Before US markets opened on Monday, Trump abruptly extended that deadline by five days, citing diplomatic progress. Pakistan’s prime minister has offered to host US-Iran talks, which Trump said involved top officials, including Vice President JD Vance. Trump said that he had sent a plan and that it “all starts with, they cannot have a nuclear weapon.” The New York Times, quoting unnamed officials, said that the United States had sent the 15-point plan to Iran through Pakistan. Israel’s Channel 12 said that Trump was proposing a one-month ceasefire during which the sides would discuss a proposal that would include handing over Iran’s enriched uranium and banning further enrichment. Iran would also ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, would see an end to all sanctions, which have been in place in various forms for years, the Israeli report said. Iran would also receive assistance in developing civil nuclear energy at Bushehr, a key site which dates from before the 1979 Islamic revolution. Iran on Tuesday accused Israel of carrying out a second strike on Bushehr, which lies perilously close to Gulf Arab population centres. “The sounds, the explosions, the missiles — they are part of our daily life now,” a 35-year-old woman in Tehran told AFP by telephone. “Our one real worry now is that our oil and gas infrastructure isn’t targeted by missile strikes.” Iran had agreed in 2015 to broad restraints on its contested nuclear program in a deal that Trump ripped up during his first term as he joined Israel in applying pressure to the cleric-run state. The reported new proposal would keep in place the Islamic republic which weeks earlier ruthlessly crushed mass protests, killing thousands, despite earlier vows of regime change by Trump and especially Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Troops en route despite diplomacy Despite Trump’s stated hopes for diplomacy, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States is planning to send 3,000 soldiers from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. Trump’s envoys were negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran just two days before the United States and Israel launched the massive attack on February 28, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day. Iranian missiles have found growing success in penetrating Israeli defences, with AFP images showing rubble-strewn streets in the commercial hub Tel Aviv. On Tuesday, more than a dozen people were injured in Israel, including an infant, first responders said. A drone view of emergency personnel working at a site following Iranian missile barrages in central Israel in Tel Aviv, Israel on March 24, 2026. — Reuters Israel said it conducted a “large wave” of airstrikes across several areas of Iran. Israeli military spokesman Effie Defrin said his country’s war plan was “unchanged” despite Trump’s remarks and that it would continue “to deepen the damage and remove existential threats”. Israel has also stepped up its campaign in Lebanon, saying its military would take control of south Lebanon up to the Litani river, around 30 kilometres from the border. Israel — which occupied southern Lebanon for nearly two decades until 2000 — carried out new strikes across the country. The Israeli military late on Tuesday warned residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs to evacuate in the face of imminent strikes. The Israeli campaign has killed at least 1,072 people in Lebanon, with more than one million people displaced, according to authorities. Another nine people died in Israeli strikes in the south, officials said. A plume of smoke and a fragment of concrete rise from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the eastern outskirts of Tyre, in southern Lebanon, on March 24, 2026. — AFP Lebanon, whose central government has long been fragile, grew increasingly assertive by announcing it was ordering the Iranian ambassador to leave by Sunday, accusing the Islamic republic of meddling and commanding Hezbollah operations. Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia all said they had intercepted renewed drone and missile attacks as Iran kept up retaliatory strikes on US-allied Gulf states. Kuwait reported a fire at its main airport after drones hit a fuel tank.
DawnMarch 25, 2026 at 10:23 AM UTC