United States air refueller downed over Iraq in Iran conflict
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View on mapTrump sends peace plan as Iran opens Strait of Hormuz to ‘non-hostile’ oil vessels
US President Donald Trump sent a peace plan to Iran as he voiced optimism Tuesday at ending nearly a month of warfare, with Tehran announcing that it will let “non-hostile” oil vessels go through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The tentative signs of a diplomatic solution came despite new violence. Trump, whose pronouncements in recent days have swung wildly from vowing massive attacks on Iran to declaring the nearly month-long war virtually over, said the United States was “in negotiations right now” with Iran. “They did something yesterday that was amazing actually. They gave us a present and the present arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “That meant one thing to me — we’re dealing with the right people.” He did not explain further but said it related to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely blockaded in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes, sending global energy prices soaring. Iran, in a message circulated by the International Maritime Organisation shortly afterwards, assured safe passage to “non-hostile vessels” going through the strait, the gateway for one-fifth of the world’s oil. Iran had already, in recent days, said it was not targeting friendly nations, although many vessels have shied away as insurance companies refuse to take risks. The benchmark price of crude oil dropped close to six per cent after the latest developments. Prices at the pump have soared in the United States after the war by Trump, causing him a political headache. New nuclear deal? Trump had earlier threatened to “obliterate“ Iran’s power plants, which some argue would be a war crime, if it did not open the strait by late Monday Washington time. Before US markets opened on Monday, Trump abruptly extended that deadline by five days, citing diplomatic progress. Pakistan’s prime minister has offered to host US-Iran talks, which Trump said involved top officials, including Vice President JD Vance. Trump said that he had sent a plan and that it “all starts with, they cannot have a nuclear weapon.” The New York Times, quoting unnamed officials, said that the United States had sent the 15-point plan to Iran through Pakistan. Israel’s Channel 12 said that Trump was proposing a one-month ceasefire during which the sides would discuss a proposal that would include handing over Iran’s enriched uranium and banning further enrichment. Iran would also ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, would see an end to all sanctions, which have been in place in various forms for years, the Israeli report said. Iran would also receive assistance in developing civil nuclear energy at Bushehr, a key site which dates from before the 1979 Islamic revolution. Iran on Tuesday accused Israel of carrying out a second strike on Bushehr, which lies perilously close to Gulf Arab population centres. “The sounds, the explosions, the missiles — they are part of our daily life now,” a 35-year-old woman in Tehran told AFP by telephone. “Our one real worry now is that our oil and gas infrastructure isn’t targeted by missile strikes.” Iran had agreed in 2015 to broad restraints on its contested nuclear program in a deal that Trump ripped up during his first term as he joined Israel in applying pressure to the cleric-run state. The reported new proposal would keep in place the Islamic republic which weeks earlier ruthlessly crushed mass protests, killing thousands, despite earlier vows of regime change by Trump and especially Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Troops en route despite diplomacy Despite Trump’s stated hopes for diplomacy, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States is planning to send 3,000 soldiers from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. Trump’s envoys were negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran just two days before the United States and Israel launched the massive attack on February 28, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day. Iranian missiles have found growing success in penetrating Israeli defences, with AFP images showing rubble-strewn streets in the commercial hub Tel Aviv. On Tuesday, more than a dozen people were injured in Israel, including an infant, first responders said. A drone view of emergency personnel working at a site following Iranian missile barrages in central Israel in Tel Aviv, Israel on March 24, 2026. — Reuters Israel said it conducted a “large wave” of airstrikes across several areas of Iran. Israeli military spokesman Effie Defrin said his country’s war plan was “unchanged” despite Trump’s remarks and that it would continue “to deepen the damage and remove existential threats”. Israel has also stepped up its campaign in Lebanon, saying its military would take control of south Lebanon up to the Litani river, around 30 kilometres from the border. Israel — which occupied southern Lebanon for nearly two decades until 2000 — carried out new strikes across the country. The Israeli military late on Tuesday warned residents of Beirut’s southern suburbs to evacuate in the face of imminent strikes. The Israeli campaign has killed at least 1,072 people in Lebanon, with more than one million people displaced, according to authorities. Another nine people died in Israeli strikes in the south, officials said. A plume of smoke and a fragment of concrete rise from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the eastern outskirts of Tyre, in southern Lebanon, on March 24, 2026. — AFP Lebanon, whose central government has long been fragile, grew increasingly assertive by announcing it was ordering the Iranian ambassador to leave by Sunday, accusing the Islamic republic of meddling and commanding Hezbollah operations. Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia all said they had intercepted renewed drone and missile attacks as Iran kept up retaliatory strikes on US-allied Gulf states. Kuwait reported a fire at its main airport after drones hit a fuel tank.
DawnMarch 25, 2026 at 06:02 AM UTCUS mulls sending elite airborne troops to Middle East
• Energy infrastructure attacked as Israel claims ‘large wave of strikes’ on Isfahan, other areas • Iran says projectile hit its Bushehr nuclear power plant • Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion airport struck by drones • 498 schools, 281 medical facilities among over 82,000 civilian structures targeted in Iran WASHINGTON / TEHRAN: The United States is planning to send some 3,000 soldiers from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support operations against Iran, US media reported on Tuesday. They would join thousands of Marines due to arrive in the Middle East by Friday, the latest deadline set by President Donald Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal. No decision has been made to put troops on the ground, WSJ reported, citing two US officials who said a written order on the deployment was expected in coming hours. However, the deployments mean units of the most battle-ready US ground troops will soon be in the region. The 82nd Airborne Division can deploy anywhere in the world within 18 hours and specialises in “forcible entry parachute assaults” that clear the way for follow-on military action, according to its website. The New York Times was the first to report on Monday that senior military officials were weighing a possible deployment of a combat brigade from the 82nd Airborne and some of its planning and logistics staff to the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran. Those soldiers or members of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit already en route “could be used to seize Kharg Island,” Iran’s oil export hub, NYT said. “The movement of the 82nd opens the door for President Trump to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, seize Iran’s strategic islands or coastline or launch a mission to capture the regime’s highly enriched uranium should he choose to do so,” WSJ reported. Trump seems to be pressing on with military operations, even as he examines “newfound” diplomatic options, the White House said on Tuesday, after the US president announced talks with Tehran, and Pakistan emerged as a possible mediator. Strikes in Isfahan Israel said it had conducted a large number of airstrikes in several areas of Iran, including the central city of Isfahan, AFP reported. “The IDF has completed a large wave of strikes in Isfahan,” the military said in a statement, adding that it had launched a “wide-scale wave of strikes.. in several areas in Iran”. Meanwhile, first responders said six people were injured in Israel’s commercial hub Tel Aviv, where police reported several impact sites after the military warned of incoming missile fire from Iran, reported Reuters. Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency medical service said “six people were lightly injured at four different sites” and released videos showing a partially gutted building and vehicles on fire. On the other hand, Iran said it targeted aircraft near Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport as its military carried out drone attacks targeting infrastructure at the airport and in the Haifa area, Al Jazeera reported. Its correspondents on the ground were reporting that the military said it had been attacking refuelling aircraft at the airport since early morning using drones, and claimed it also targeted military and aerospace industrial sites near the airport, as well as in Haifa. Bushehr plant struck Iran’s atomic energy organisation accused the US and Israel on Tuesday of attacking its Bushehr nuclear power plant, saying a projectile had landed within its compound but caused no damage. “The American-Zionist enemy has attacked the Bushehr nuclear power plant site again,” the organisation said in a statement, adding that “a projectile hit inside the enclosure of the Bushehr power plant”. “Initial reports indicate this incident did not cause any financial or technical damage, or human casualty, and the various areas of the power plant are unharmed. Separately, the Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) said that US-Israeli strikes on the country have targeted 17 organisation centres since the start of the war, Al Jazeera reported. The IRCS added that 94 ambulances and a relief vehicle affiliated to them had also been targeted. Attacks on Iran by the US and Israel also damaged 498 schools and 281 medical facilities among more than 82,000 civilian structures that were damaged or destroyed, Al Jazeera reported, citing the Iranian Red Crescent Society. The damaged structures include 62,000 homes, 281 medical centres, hospitals and pharmacies. Earlier, Iranian media reported US-Israeli warplanes had struck two gas facilities and a pipeline, hours after Trump stepped back from his threat to attack energy sites, citing negotiations to end the war. Published in Dawn, March 25th, 2026
DawnMarch 25, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTCWar Diary Day 25: Pause holds but conflict’s underlying dynamics point to widening of scope
On the 25th day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the conflict’s underlying dynamics pointed to a continued widening of scope, with President Donald Trump’s five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure offering only limited respite and doing little to alter the broader trajectory. Over the past 24 hours, Israeli strikes continued against Iranian energy and military targets, including gas management facilities in Isfahan, pipeline-linked infrastructure in Khorramshahr, and military sites. Additionally, US and Israeli strikes were reported in Tehran and other urban areas, which indicates a sustained pressure by the US-Israel alliance on Iran’s both strategic and symbolic nodes. Iran responded with a calibrated but geographically expanding pattern of retaliation. As missile and drone strikes targeted US positions across the Gulf, including installations linked to air and naval operations, fire continued to be directed toward Israeli targets. A notable development was the strike on Kuwait’s power transmission network, which caused widespread blackouts. Despite these tactical moves by both sides, the military balance, however, remained one of managed escalation. On the ground, fire rates from Iran have moderated, but the available launch capacity has largely remained intact because of a deliberate conservation of assets. On the other side, the scale of US and Israeli targeting has expanded, with claims of thousands of strikes since the start of the campaign and significant degradation of Iranian naval capabilities. In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes on infrastructure in the south, including bridges and supply routes, continued, while Hezbollah maintained pressure through rocket fire and tactical denial of Israeli ground movement. That front too has stabilised into an attritional pattern, with neither side achieving decisive gains. In Iraq, US and allied forces completed the evacuation of a key installation in Baghdad following a temporary ceasefire with local armed groups. Shifting posture of US forces At the operational level, the US forces’ posture is undergoing a visible transition. The accelerated deployment of Marine expeditionary units, sustained strategic airlift into regional bases, and reports that airborne and special operations forces are being positioned point to preparations for a potential next phase of escalation. Reported options under consideration by the US-Israel alliance include limited ground or littoral operations aimed at securing maritime routes, or targeting Iranian coastal infrastructure. Such moves, however, carry a high risk of triggering a broader escalation, especially because they would involve nodes such as Kharg Island or other positions linked to Hormuz control. Configuration of power in Iran Inside Iran, the internal configuration of power is shifting further toward the security establishment. The consolidation of authority within the Revolutionary Guards, reinforced by key appointments in the national security structure, especially the naming of former Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Bagher Zolghadr as Ali Larijani’s successor at Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, reinforces the impression that a tightening of decision-making is underway at a time of external pressure. Parallel to this, the public negotiating posture has hardened, with Tehran rejecting claims of engagement and reiterating demands that any dialogue should include security guarantees, sanctions relief, reparations and recognition of its role in regulating passage through the Strait of Hormuz and its right to enrichment. Hormuz — the central lever The Strait itself has continued to be the central lever in the conflict. While not formally closed, it is effectively constrained by a combination of selective access, elevated insurance costs and implicit coercion. Iran continues to allow limited passage under its own terms while signalling that any escalation, particularly against its energy or power infrastructure, would trigger broader disruption, including potential denial of the waterway. Diplomatically, Trump’s pause has created a narrow window for indirect engagement through regional intermediaries even though the absence of any visible convergence between the two sides has made the pause look less a breakthrough and more a tactical adjustment. Regional signalling is becoming sharper. Gulf states are gradually shifting toward a more assertive posture, with warnings that further targeting could prompt direct responses. At the same time, differences within the broader coalition, particularly regarding the scale and end goals of the campaign, have been evident. The economic dimension is now the dominant pressure point. Oil markets continue to show extreme volatility, reacting sharply to both military developments and political messaging. While the focus has been mostly on oil, disruptions have spread across supply chains, including fertilisers, LNG and industrial inputs. The situation at the end of Day 25 tells us that while some effort may be under way to tactically contain the war, one cannot ignore that it is expanding structurally. The pause may delay one axis of escalation, but on the whole, continuation of strikes, regional spillover and economic disruption are pushing the conflict toward a phase where control becomes harder to maintain, and the risks of a wider confrontation continue to rise. Header image: Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the eastern outskirts of the southern Lebanese coastal city of Tyre on March 24, 2026. — AFP
DawnMarch 24, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTCDe-escalation or a bid to appease the markets?
• Trump claims ‘very productive’ talks with ‘most respected leader’ • Iranians deny direct contact; Moscow, London react with cautious optimism • Israel to keep pummelling Lebanon and Iran • US Marines en route to Mideast; USS Gerald Ford withdraws for repairs WASHINGTON: The Iran war, now in its fourth week, is no longer being fought on the battlefield alone. In fact, from a cursory glance at the US president’s utterances, it is being waged on trading floors, oil terminals and social media feeds — sometimes within the span of minutes. On Monday morning, President Donald Trump jolted global markets with his first post of many on Iran, declaring that the US military would postpone strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days following “productive” talks between Washington and Tehran. The reaction was instant and dramatic. The announcement added an estimated $1.7 trillion to US stocks and sent oil prices tumbling by $17 — roughly 15 per cent. But within minutes, Iran rejected the claim as incorrect, calling it an attempt to influence markets. Half the early gains evaporated almost as quickly as they had appeared. “This is the average Monday morning for a market-oriented executive in the fourth week of war,” commented Fortune, capturing the volatility that now defines global finance. In a Truth Social post written in all caps earlier on Monday, Trump said the two countries had held “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” Hours later, however, his tone shifted sharply. Speaking in Florida, he warned that if talks failed, “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out.” Trump also claimed that he had not been in contact with Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during ongoing negotiations with the country. “We’re dealing with a man who I believe is the most respected and the leader,” Trump told reporters. The president also insisted the Iranian side had initiated contact. “They called, I didn’t call,” he said. “They want to make a deal, and we are very willing to make a deal.” He claimed there were already “major points of agreement” with unnamed Iranian interlocutors and outlined US conditions: “We want no enrichment, but we also want the enriched uranium.” He refused to name those allegedly in contact with Washington. “Because I don’t want them to be killed,” he explained. Tehran pushes back Publicly, Iranian officials swiftly denied that any negotiations were underway. “There are no talks between Tehran and Washington,” the Mehr news agency quoted Iran’s foreign ministry as saying, describing Trump’s remarks as an effort “to reduce energy prices.” Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei indicated that messages had been received from “some friendly countries indicating a US request for negotiations aimed at ending the war”, but denied any such talks had taken place. The Axios news website named Trump’s interlocutor as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of parliament. But Ghalibaf said “no negotiations” were underway, adding in a post on X that the announcement was intended “to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.” Weighing in, Vali Nasr, a widely respected scholar of Middle Eastern affairs, observed: “It may well be Trump has not talked to anyone in Iran, and is just buying himself time.” The confusion over whether there had been any contact between Tehran and Washington also plagued world capitals, which responded with reluctant optimism. The Kremlin said it was monitoring “contradictory statements” regarding the situation in Iran, but hoped the conflict would be resolved quickly. “There have been many different statements today, including some contradictory ones. We continue to monitor the situation closely and hope that it will soon return to a peaceful course,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “I welcome the talks reported between the US and Iran,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a parliamentary committee, adding the UK was “aware” discussions were happening. The acknowledgement came after Starmer said he was sending short-range air defence systems to Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to counter Iranian missile attacks. Aircraft carrier withdraws The overtures towards de-escalation come even as thousands of US Marines are headed to the Middle East, reinforcing the American presence there amid speculation at the weekend that Trump was mulling ground operations either to seize Iranian oil assets or to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier that has been part of Middle East war operations, on Monday returned to a naval base in Crete. The vessel, which took on food, fuel and ammunition at Souda Bay in February, reported a laundry fire on March 12 which injured two crew members. The carrier has also reportedly suffered significant problems with its toilet system while at sea, with US media reporting clogs and long lines for restrooms on the ship. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue their military offensives against Iran and Lebanon, claiming the assassination of two more Iranian nuclear scientists. “President Trump believes there is a chance to leverage the tremendous achievements of the IDF and the US military in order to realise the war’s objectives in an agreement — an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests,” Netanyahu said in a video statement. “We will protect our vital interests under any circumstances,” he said. Published in Dawn, March 24th, 2026
DawnMarch 24, 2026 at 02:57 AM UTCWar Diary Day 24: Trump’s tactical pause buys time, not resolution
On the 24th day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, President Donald Trump’s decision to defer planned strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure by five days introduced a tactical pause in an otherwise escalating conflict, essentially extending the 48-hour ultimatum into a more uncertain holding phase. The shift from threats of “obliteration” to claims of “productive conversations” appeared less the result of any Iranian concession and more a unilateral recalibration by Washington. Tehran has denied any real engagement and maintained its position that any strike on its energy infrastructure would trigger wide retaliation across US- and Israeli-linked targets in the Gulf, including energy, desalination and critical systems, alongside a potential full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The pause, therefore, reflects a delay in decision rather than a change in positions. Pressures driving the adjustment Multiple pressures appear to have driven this adjustment. The economic cost of the war is rising sharply, with energy markets already strained and domestic political concerns mounting in the US. Inflation projections had been revised upward, fuel prices were climbing, and the fiscal burden of operations was becoming more visible. At the same time, allied support has remained limited in operational terms, with statements about coordination not translating into meaningful combat deployments. At the same time, Iran’s continued strikes on regional radar and surveillance systems embarrassingly exposed vulnerabilities in early warning coverage, which added to the operational difficulties. Military purpose The pause also serves a parallel military purpose. The ongoing movements of US personnel and assets toward regional bases, alongside the forward positioning of amphibious groups, point to continuing preparations for targeted options, including possible coastal operations — seizure of Iranian islands — or actions for securing maritime routes. Iranian assessments point to a US focus on southern coastal positions rather than high-risk seizure of Kharg Island, though the latter remains part of contingency planning. In this sense, the five-day window is both a buffer against immediate escalation and a preparatory period should coercive options be resumed. War continues on ground On the ground, however, the war has not paused. The US decision applied narrowly to Iranian power and major energy infrastructure, while Israeli operations inside Iran and in southern Lebanon continued. Strikes on coastal missile sites near Kharg and the Tunb islands persisted, and ground fighting south of the Litani River intensified. Iran has, meanwhile, maintained missile pressure on Israel, shifting toward heavier payloads and more selective targeting, while continuing and expanding strikes on Gulf targets. The damage to LNG facilities in Qatar and attacks on installations across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain are just reminders that the energy dimension of the war remains active despite the temporary pause by the US. The Strait of Hormuz, during the past 24 hours, continued to function under Iranian control with passage remaining selective and neutral tankers allowed under monitored conditions, while US-Israeli coalition-linked vessels faced restrictions or were turned back. This approach allowed Tehran to sustain pressure on global supply chains without triggering a full shutdown. Street sentiment Across the region, the street sentiment reflected caution rather than confidence. In Israel, the US postponement was met with a mix of relief and scepticism, with growing fatigue due to sustained missile attacks by Iran and Hezbollah and battlefield losses. In Arab capitals, the move was seen as a tactical delay rather than a shift in direction. The concern in Arab streets remained focused on the risk of wider infrastructure disruption if escalation resumes, as Gulf states are particularly exposed. Proxy fronts remained active despite limited signals of restraint. Hezbollah has sustained a high tempo of operations in southern Lebanon, with continued pressure on Israeli forces, while Iraqi groups have indicated a conditional 24-hour pause for the withdrawal of Nato troops from the Iraqi mainland. Diplomatically, the pause delivered a narrow window but little clarity. Some partners welcomed the breathing space, while regional actors continued to urge restraint. It is, however, important that Iran’s own framing of a potential end to the war has, all along, remained expansive, linking any settlement to broader regional arrangements, payment of reparations, and a new framework for the Strait of Hormuz. There was no indication of movement toward these positions. By the end of Day 24, the five-day pause has altered the tempo but not the trajectory of the conflict. Trump’s announcement at a minimum reflected a recognition in Washington that escalation carries consequences that are difficult to control as Tehran refuses to yield. One can’t say about the future trajectory of the conflict, but for now, the war remains suspended between restraint and renewed escalation. Header image: US President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media onboard Air Force One on March 15, 2026 while en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland from West Palm Beach Florida. — AFP/ File
DawnMarch 23, 2026 at 04:16 PM UTCTrump backs down on strikes on Iran’s power network, claims US and Tehran holding talks
US President Donald Trump said on Monday he had given orders to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants for five days, hours ahead of a deadline that threatened further escalation in the conflict now in its fourth week. Trump claimed in a post on his Truth Social platform that the US and Iran had had “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE” conversations over the past two days about a “COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST”. The White House did not respond to questions about the content of the talks, who participated or where they were held. Meanwhile, Iranian media reported that there were no negotiations between Tehran and Washington. “There are no talks between Tehran and Washington,” said the Mehr news agency, citing Iran’s foreign ministry, adding that Trump’s statements were part of a push to reduce energy prices. Other media carried similar reports. Oil drops, stocks recover on Trump comments In his message, written entirely in capital letters, Trump said he had instructed the defence department to postpone the strikes pending the outcome of the talks. He claimed while speaking to Fox Business Network that Iran wanted “badly to make a deal”, which could come within five days. A source briefed on Israel’s war plans said Washington had kept it informed of its talks with Tehran, and that Israel was likely to follow Washington in suspending any targeting of Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. The Israeli prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on reported talks with Iran or Washington’s decision to suspend strikes on some Iranian targets. Trump’s comments briefly sent the price of the Brent crude oil benchmark down around 13 per cent to back below $100 a barrel. By 1245 GMT, it stood around $101.80. Global markets also recovered sharply, with US stock futures reversing losses to gain around 1.3pc. On Saturday, Trump had warned that Iranian power plants would be destroyed if Tehran failed to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping within 48 hours. Trump set a deadline of around 7:44pm EDT (2344 GMT) on Monday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Monday threatened retaliation, saying they would attack Israel’s power plants and those supplying US bases across the Gulf region if Trump followed through with his threat. More than 2,000 people have been killed in the war that the US and Israel launched on February 28, which has upended markets, driven up fuel costs, accelerated global inflation fears and convulsed the Western defence alliance. However, the threat of strikes on Gulf electricity grids raised fears of mass disruption to desalination for drinking water, and further rattled oil markets. While attacks on electricity could hurt Iran, they could be catastrophic for its Gulf neighbours, which consume around five times as much power per capita. Electricity makes their gleaming desert cities habitable, in part by powering the desalination plants that produce 100pc of the water consumed in Bahrain and Qatar. Such plants use seawater to meet more than 80pc of drinking water needs in the United Arab Emirates, and 50pc of the water supply in Saudi Arabia. Tehran threatens to mine Gulf Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said the resulting energy crisis was worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas shortage connected to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine put together. Iran’s Defence Council escalated its threatened retaliation on Monday, prior to Trump’s delay, saying Tehran would cut all Gulf routes by laying sea mines if Trump followed through, state media reported. “In this case, the entire Gulf will practically be in a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long time …” The Israeli military said early on Monday it had begun its latest broad wave of strikes on infrastructure in Tehran. Iranian news agencies said six people had been killed and 43 injured in strikes on residential buildings in the western city of Khorramabad. A strike on the southern city of Bushehr targeted the local meteorological organisation and killed the head of meteorology for Bushehr’s airport, state media reported. The Iranian Red Crescent posted a video of a residential building in affluent northern Tehran with most of its facade destroyed and emergency staff rescuing someone on a stretcher from the upper floors. Across the Gulf, the Saudi defence ministry said two ballistic missiles had been launched towards Riyadh. One was intercepted while the other fell in an uninhabited area.
DawnMarch 23, 2026 at 03:31 PM UTCMideast war threatens energy crisis worse than 1970s oil shocks, warns IEA chief
The world faces an energy crisis worse than both 1970s oil shocks combined if the Middle East war drags on, the head of the International Energy Agency warned on Monday, as Israel launched fresh strikes on Tehran and threatened weeks more fighting. As the war grinds into its fourth week, United States President Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Iran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours — setting an effective deadline of 23:44 GMT on Monday (4:44am PKT on Tuesday). Tehran has retaliated against US-Israeli assaults by throttling traffic in the vital waterway, conduit for a fifth of global crude oil, hitting energy sites and US embassies across the Gulf as well as firing missiles and drones at Israel. The Islamic republic issued a firm response to the new ultimatum, with powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf vowing vital infrastructure across the region will be “irreversibly destroyed” if Trump acts on his threat. In a stark warning over what lies ahead unless the fighting ends soon, IEA chief Fatih Birol said the world was losing more oil each day than the combined impact of both 1970s oil shocks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “This crisis as things stand is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” Birol said. “No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.” At least 40 energy assets across the oil- and gas-exporting region have already been “severely or very severely damaged”, Birol said, with oil prices driven above $100 a barrel over supply fears. In recent days, Iran has allowed a handful of vessels from countries it considers friendly to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but warned it would block ships from nations joining the “aggression” against it. Oil prices rose again on Monday while stocks tumbled after Trump and Iranian leaders traded threats — and Israel said the Middle East war could last several more weeks. Further sign of the real-world impact far beyond the region, a major Cambodian energy supplier said it would halt sales of liquefied petroleum gas due to war-linked supply disruptions. ‘Weeks’ more fighting Weighing in from Beijing, China’s foreign ministry warned in response to Trump’s latest threats that further fighting risks creating an “uncontrollable situation” in the Middle East. But the US leader has offered varying timelines and objectives for the war, saying Friday he was considering “winding down” the operation — only to later threaten Iran’s power plants. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of a long-term campaign against Iran’s government, with Tel Aviv launching fresh strikes at Iran on Monday. An AFP journalist witnessed a thick column of black smoke rising above Tehran, while Israel’s military urged people to take over as it worked to intercept missiles fired from Iran. Israel has also expanded its ground campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, warning of a “weeks of fighting” in the country. The violence in Lebanon has killed more than 1,000 people, according to the health ministry, with more than a million displaced. Israeli forces were given orders to destroy bridges they said were used by Hezbollah to cross the key Litani river, 30 kilometres north of the border — in what Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called “a dangerous escalation” seen as a prelude to a ground invasion. Iran evades Israeli defences Israel prides itself on its air defences, and Trump and Netanyahu both claim to have knocked out key Iranian military sites. But Iranian missiles evaded the defences over the weekend to land in two southern towns, including Dimona, close to Israel’s desert nuclear facility, injuring dozens on Saturday. “We thought we were safe,” Galit Amir, a 50-year-old care provider, told AFP in Dimona. “We didn’t expect this.” According to rescuers, a missile landed about 5km from what is widely believed to be the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal — although Israel has never admitted to possessing nuclear weapons, insisting the site is for research. Iran said it was retaliating against a hit on its own nuclear site at Natanz, but Israel’s military said it was “not aware of a strike”. In Iran, at least 3,230 people have died in the war, including 1,406 civilians, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. AFP is not able to access the sites of strikes nor independently verify tolls in Iran.
DawnMarch 23, 2026 at 10:01 AM UTCWhat does Trump’s weekend pivot to domestic politics mean for the Iran war?
WASHINGTON: Over the weekend, United States President Donald Trump issued 13 posts and reposts within 24 hours on his social media platform Truth Social, revealing a shift in attention from battlefield updates from Iran towards domestic politics. Posting from Mar-a-Lago, Trump declared “the death of Iran”, but devoted much of his messaging to attacking Democrats, reviving election grievances, promoting immigration crackdowns, and resharing suggestions that he deserves a third presidential term despite constitutional limits. For Middle East observers, the volume and focus of these posts may be more significant than their tone. But they caution against over-emphasising this shift, noting that “tomorrow he may resume his Iran tweets”. The pivot also comes as members of Congress gear up for a fresh push aimed at curbing Trump’s war powers. Position on Iran Trump has repeatedly claimed that the US has “blown Iran off the map”. Yet in the same breath, he has urged Tehran not to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint critical to global energy supplies. Before this weekend, he appeared to be conducting the war through social media, releasing almost 90 posts on Iran in just three weeks. As the Wall Street Journal observed, “Three weeks into the conflict, the president has used social media to conduct his own unique form of online diplomacy.” Over the weekend, he added a 48‑hour ultimatum to Iran, warning: “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” The strict deadline suggests that Trump may be temporarily pausing public tweets on Iran — effectively waiting for the 48 hours to expire before resuming his messaging on the conflict. The domestic pivot During the weekend, however, Trump’s posts focused heavily on internal battles. He described Democrats as America’s “greatest enemy”, reshared claims about a “stolen election”, and reiterated threats to send US Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to assist the Transportation Security Administration amid a funding dispute. The pattern suggests that immigration, internal security, and partisan confrontation are again becoming the centerpiece of his messaging. For regional governments watching the Iran conflict, this is significant as sustained war requires sustained political focus. When domestic issues dominate presidential communication during an active conflict, it often signals either confidence that objectives have been met — or a reluctance to deepen involvement. Notably absent from Trump’s recent posts is any sustained argument for regime change in Tehran or a long-term occupation strategy. His language emphasizes punishment and deterrence rather than transformation. Historically, US administrations that seek regime change frame wars in ideological or structural terms. Trump’s language, instead, frames the confrontation as something already won — or nearly won. This creates space for the White House to one day declare that US goals in Iran have been achieved — and if it does, it would likely frame the outcome as the severe degradation of Iran’s military capacity, the restoration of deterrence, and a demonstration of American strength. That is why some observers argue that 13 posts in 24 hours may be more than impulsive messaging. They could represent the early stage of a pivot — from an external military campaign to an internal political one. For Middle Eastern capitals, the key question is no longer whether Washington can escalate, but whether it wants to. For some, it would be a sigh of relief that the US president’s attention remains fixed on America’s domestic battlefield.
DawnMarch 23, 2026 at 06:03 AM UTCTehran refuses to back down as Hormuz remains global pain point
Iranian women shout slogans after Eidul Fitr prayers at the Grand Mosalla mosque in Tehran.—AFP • Trump manages to secure backing from some allies for potential mission to unblock the strait • Tehran says Hormuz open to all, except aggressors • US Treasury lifts sanctions on Iran oil; Bessent says Washington may ‘escalate to de-escalate’ • Hit hard over Eid, Tehran strikes back with largest salvo yet against Israel • Gulf states reject accusation they back military actions against Iran JERUSALEM / TEHRAN: A day after Iranian forces launched a punishing series of retaliatory attacks against Israel, the country’s president said that “threats and terror” would only make the country more unified. The message from Masoud Pezeshkian came after Trump threatened to attack Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened, and called on other nations to help end the closure. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Washington is “already starting to see them (Nato) answer the president’s call” on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. After US President Donald Trump slammed Nato allies as “cowards” and urged them to secure the Strait of Hormuz, a statement from the leaders of mainly European countries — including the UK, France, Italy and Germany, but also South Korea, Australia, the UAE and Bahrain — “express[ed their] readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait”. But in a post on X, Pezeshkian has said Iran will “firmly confront delirious threats on the battlefield”, adding that the Strait of Hormuz “is open to all except those who violate our soil”. Tehran has threatened to completely close off the Strait if its power infrastructure is destroyed in further US-Israeli attacks. “We have repeatedly stated that the Strait of Hormuz is only closed to enemies and harmful traffic; it has not yet been completely closed and is under our intelligent control,” a statement from Iran’s central command authority, the Khatam al-Anbiya, pointed out. It also threatened energy infrastructure, and information and communications technology infrastructure in Israel, as well as American companies and power plants in countries hosting US bases. Iran is ready to cooperate with the International Maritime Organisation to improve maritime safety and protect seafarers in the Gulf, the Iranian representative to the UN maritime agency said. Ali Mousavi said the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to “Iran’s enemies”, adding that passage through the narrow waterway was possible by coordinating security and safety arrangements with Tehran. Lifting oil sanctions Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stirred controversy after it was announced that Washington was lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, has said that the US may need to “escalate” its attacks against Iran to be able to wind down the war, after President Donald Trump gave seemingly contradictory trajectories for the US military campaign. Asked if Trump was winding down or escalating the war, Bessent said: “They’re not mutually exclusive. Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate. “This is the only language the Iranians understand,” he argued. Asked on NBC about the contradiction of lifting oil sanctions during a war with Iran, Bessent defended the move as one that could help alleviate pressure on US partners and lower the price Iran can receive for its oil. “That Iranian oil was always going to be sold to the Chinese. It was going to be sold at a discount … So which is better? If oil prices spiked to $150 and they (Iran) were getting 70 per cent of that, or oil prices below 100?” Bessent has also refused to put a timeline on when Americans should expect prices to moderate, while arguing that the electorate will agree that removing Iran’s nuclear threat will be worth the temporary costs. “I don’t know whether it’s going to be 30 days. I don’t know whether it’s going to be 50 days. I don’t know whether it’s going to be 100 days,” he said. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected hold an emergency meeting today (Monday) to discuss the impact of the Iran war on the economy, a British government official said, according to Reuters. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has written to the UN Security Council (UNSC), requesting that it condemn US-Israeli strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities. “Without delay, it should condemn this aggression, compel the aggressors to immediately cease all their illegal attacks, and obligate them to fully compensate and pay reparations for all damages and harms inflicted, including to Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities and sites,” Fars adds. US-Israeli attacks on Iran Tehran marked the end of the month of Ramazan as the war entered its fourth week. The occasion also coincided with Persian new year celebrations. Iran’s supreme leader traditionally leads Eidul Fitr prayers, but it was the head of the judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, who attended prayers at central Tehran’s overflowing Imam Khomeini grand mosque. Meanwhile, Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB quoted the country’s Health Minister Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi as saying the US-Israeli war has killed 210 children and injured a further 1,510. The minister added that attacks have so far damaged 300 health, treatment and emergency centres. US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper claimed American warplanes had dropped 5,000-pound bombs on an underground Iranian coastal facility storing anti-ship cruise missiles and mobile launchers, leaving Tehran’s ability to threaten the waterway “degraded”. Centcom also said it destroyed an Iranian military facility earlier this month, where close, short and medium-range ballistic missiles were being built. In a post on X, it identified the site as the Kuh-e Barjamali Ballistic Missile Assembly Facility and attached before-and-after satellite photos of the complex. The facility is located in the Barjamali Hills, southeast of Tehran. The Israeli military also claimed to have struck a facility inside a Tehran university allegedly used “to develop nuclear weapon components and weapons”. Iran hits back Two Iranian missiles struck southern Israel on Saturday, injuring more than 100 people, tearing open the facades of buildings and leaving large craters. Hours earlier, 33 were wounded in nearby Dimona, where footage showed a large hole gouged into the ground next to piles of rubble and twisted metal. Dimona hosts a facility widely believed to be the site of the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal, although Israel has never admitted to possessing nuclear weapons. Iran said the targeting of Dimona was retaliation for Israeli strikes on its Natanz nuclear facility. Following the Natanz attack, UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi reiterated his call for “military restraint to avoid any risk of a nuclear accident”. Gulf states Iran’s claims that all six Gulf Cooperation Council member states are responsible for military operations are “baseless”, the bloc’s Secretary‑General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi has said, Al Jazeera reported. Albudaiwi also reiterated his strong condemnation of Iran’s “continued blatant and treacherous attacks on GCC member states, including the deliberate targeting of infrastructure and oil facilities”. His comments come amid a growing rift between Iran and the Gulf countries — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait and Oman. The UAE said it faced aerial attacks after Iran warned it against allowing strikes from its territory on disputed islands near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry also said that a drone has been intercepted and destroyed over the country’s eastern region. Qatar is said to be closely watching out for further attacks by Iran after the air strikes on its Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, an official says. “We are currently focused on defending our country and addressing the situation following the LNG attacks. We are not currently engaged in any mediation efforts,” a Qatari diplomat told Al Jazeera. If the war in the Middle East drags out for more than six months, economies around the world will suffer “real impacts”, AFP reported, quoting the head of French oil giant TotalEnergies. “If it’s more than six months, we will have some real impacts. All the economies of the world will be damaged,” Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne has said in an interview with Chinese state broadcaster CGTN. Published in Dawn, March 23rd, 2026
DawnMarch 23, 2026 at 02:46 AM UTCWar Diary Day 23: US ultimatum pushes war to the brink
On the 23rd day of the US- Israeli war against Iran, the conflict entered its most dangerous phase yet as US President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum imposed a hard deadline on an already grinding and multi-front war. The demand that Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power infrastructure has compressed timelines and raised the risk of immediate escalation. Tehran’s response was swift. It warned that any attack on its power, fuel or energy infrastructure would trigger strikes not only on US and Israeli-linked assets, but also on critical energy, IT and desalination facilities across the Gulf. This explicit warning, backed by proven Iranian capability to deliver on their warnings, sharply raised the stakes, particularly for Gulf states. At the operational level, US and Israeli strikes have continued against Iranian coastal missile sites and access tunnels near Kharg and the Tunb islands. These actions look to be designed by the US and Israel to degrade Iran’s ability to control the Strait before the alliance commits to a full-scale ground operation. Yet Iran has retained the operational control of the Strait by keeping it selectively open, allowing limited passage for ‘friendly’ countries while restricting coalition-linked traffic. And simultaneously, Tehran has continued to load and export oil. This indicates that Iran is sustaining economic pressure without fully closing off its own options. The US military posture, meanwhile, has shifted toward a more forward and ready stance. The USS Tripoli and its embarked Marine force, now having entered Centcom’s Area of Responsibility, are now fully operational, conducting escort and surveillance missions and have thus expanded the range of options available to Washington, including potential operations against strategic islands. An image of the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship. — US Navy This has been accompanied by a notable expansion of coalition support, with several Western and allied countries committing naval assets after weeks of hesitation. While this development signals a hardening of positions, it also introduces new vulnerabilities as well. The risks attached to the ultimatum are widely understood. Striking Iran’s power grid is unlikely to produce Tehran’s rapid capitulation, given the dispersed nature of Iranian plants. In contrast, retaliation against more concentrated infrastructure across the Gulf and in Israel could have immediate and severe consequences. Gulf desalination facilities, energy installations and supply chains are highly exposed, therefore any Iranian retaliation would lead to power outages, water shortages and wider economic disruption. Stress is already visible in energy markets, with prices and insurance costs continuing to rise. What the new phase holds will be seen shortly. At the same time, Iran has shown no indication of economic strangulation. Its continued exports through Hormuz, combined with rejection of external proposals to increase supply under the conditional US offer of ending curbs on oil exports, suggests that Tehran has enough room to manoeuvre. On the battlefield, the conflict continued to intensify across multiple fronts. Iran launched another wave of missile strikes, including impacts near sensitive Israeli locations like Dimona and Arad, which reinforced both the operational and psychological dimensions of the war. Claims of more engagements against advanced US and Israeli aircraft — F-15 and F-16 — are being amplified domestically in Iran, building on the earlier successful hit on an F-35 stealth jet. This messaging is contributing to a narrative of resilience. In Lebanon, the tempo of fighting has increased, with Hezbollah expanding operations and hitting Israeli forces, which in military terms is called behind the ‘enemy lines’. Israel is, meanwhile, attempting to sever access routes south of the Litani River. As of now, the Israeli strategy, rather than isolating the battlefield, has turned border areas into sustained zones of attrition, with limited territorial change but rising costs. Meanwhile, in Iraq, the activity of Iran-aligned militia continues to pressure US positions, whereas in Yemen, the Houthis remain on high alert, with indications that any move to forcibly reopen the Strait could trigger action in the Red Sea, linking the two maritime theatres. In a related development, the hardening of the tone of Ayatollah Sistani’s camp, as evidenced from Eid sermons in Karbala and Kazimiya, suggests rising concern there about the aggravating situation. Beyond these fronts, tensions have also escalated in the Palestinian territories, where Israeli settler violence in the West Bank on Saturday night, which is being described by Israelis as a “Night of Fire”, risks opening another axis of instability. This widening of pressure points tells how the conflict is no longer contained and is instead spreading across interconnected theatres. Diplomatically, the space for de-escalation has narrowed further with Trump deliberating elimination potential off-ramps to achieve something he can show as concrete success. Leaks from Washington, in parallel, suggest that the US is looking for interlocutors in Tehran, but the real issue is its own credibility, having waged war against Iran twice while negotiations were continuing. Public sentiment is showing visible strain in the Arab streets as well as in Israel. In Israel, war fatigue has begun to take its toll, with informal polling and reservist sentiment suggesting that support for the war was slipping rapidly. Across the Arab world, reactions remain mixed but increasingly charged. Protests in the Levant, Iraq and Yemen have framed Trump’s ultimatum as economic coercion, while in the Gulf, public sentiment is reflecting a combination of anger at Iranian strikes and anxiety over the prospect of wider disruption. Waving the Iraqi flag and holding up placards with the image of the assassinated Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iraqis rally in support of neighbouring Iran, in the al-Aamil district of Baghdad on March 22. — AFP Egypt was particularly in focus for the past couple of days, where a widely circulated Eid sermon has added to the debate across the Arab countries, with its messaging interpreted by some as a call for separation from those on the side of Israel. By the end of Day 23, the conflict stands on a razor’s edge. The 48-hour clock has transformed the conflict into a high-risk gamble, with both sides preparing for the consequences of the next move. Whether the deadline produces a breakthrough or triggers a wider regional crisis will likely become clear in a day or two.
DawnMarch 22, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC