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View on mapDemocrats push for public debate as US-Israel war on Iran escalates
WASHINGTON: Iranian missile strikes on southern Israel and toward a key US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean have escalated the conflict into its fourth week, prompting US Democrats to call for transparency and oversight. The developments are bound to intensify their push in Congress for public hearings on US President Donald Trump’s war on Iran — even as their efforts have so far failed to gain traction. Iran fired long-range ballistic missiles at southern Israeli towns, including Dimona and Arad, near Israel’s sensitive nuclear research facilities. Israeli authorities said dozens were wounded and some missiles penetrated air defence systems. In a significant widening of the conflict, Iran also launched missiles toward the US-UK base on Diego Garcia. US officials said the missiles did not strike the base, with one failing mid-flight and another intercepted by a US naval vessel. President Trump has not sought congressional authorisation for the military campaign. On Friday, he suggested operations could be “wound down” if objectives are met, while also insisting Iran must not be allowed to threaten US interests or pursue nuclear weapons. Seventeen Senate Democrats say they are preparing a “volley of war powers resolutions” and are “threatening to use every procedural tool at their disposal” to force debate and ensure oversight. Senators Cory Booker, Tammy Baldwin, Tammy Duckworth, Tim Kaine, Adam Schiff, and Chris Murphy emphasised the need for public scrutiny of the administration’s actions. Booker stressed that Congress must exercise its constitutional role in overseeing military operations, warning that unchecked action could set a dangerous precedent for future conflicts. But Democratic efforts have so far been blocked. War powers resolutions have largely failed along party lines, and Republican leaders have refused to schedule public hearings on Iran. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Jack Reed, and Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen have demanded that senior administration officials testify under oath. They cautioned that unclear goals and shifting explanations increase the risk of escalation, casualties, and costs for taxpayers. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine said Democrats are “tired of the classified briefings. We’re tired of hiding this from the public”. He added: “When you keep something in secret, there’s a reason you keep it in secret because you don’t believe it will stand analysis in the light of day.” While Democratic Senator Chris Murphy said the administration should be willing to defend its actions publicly: “If this administration thinks it can defend this war — I don’t know how it can — then it should send Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio to the Senate next week for a hearing in front of the relevant committees.” In the House, Representative Gregory W. Meeks called for testimony from top officials involved in Iran policy, stressing that Congress must understand the rationale, planning, and consequences of the administration’s actions before authorising or funding further operations. Republican leaders have pushed back. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune said administration officials have provided “plenty of news conferences” and classified briefings. “I am not sure what the Democrats’ objective would be … other than to try and find some way to embarrass them,” he said. While Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson warned that public hearings could compromise operational security. “We’re in the midst of a couple-of-weeks-long operation that’s sensitive in its mission and scope, and you cannot go outside of the classified briefing … because it would adversely affect our mission,” he said. With oil prices climbing above $100 per barrel, Democrats argue that the widening conflict — from Israeli towns near nuclear facilities to a US base thousands of kilometres away — strengthens the case for public scrutiny. At a recent Senate hearing, Democrats questioned military officials on whether airstrikes alone could significantly alter Iran’s posture, but the generals said such questions could only be answered in classified briefings. As the Iran conflict intensifies, Democrats continue to push for transparency, arguing that Congress and the American public deserve a clear picture of objectives, strategy, and potential costs — both human and financial — before the war escalates further.
DawnMarch 22, 2026 at 05:32 AM UTCTrump threatens Iran with power plant strikes over Hormuz oil blockade
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, a significant escalation barely a day after he talked about “winding down” the war. “If Iran doesn’t fully open, without threat, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first!” Trump said on social media. Trump’s ultimatum would expand the scope of US strikes to infrastructure that affects daily civilian life in Iran. The threat of Iranian attacks has kept most ships from getting through the strait, a narrow waterway that serves as the conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, threatening a global energy shock. Its near-closure sent European gas prices surging as much as 35 per cent last week. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters said on Sunday that if the US attacks Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure, then Iran would target all US energy, information technology and desalination infrastructure in the region. Energy prices spiked last week after Iran responded to an Israeli attack on its major gas field by hitting Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, which processes around a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas, causing damage that will take years to repair. The threats to Gulf infrastructure came as the conflict entered dangerous new territory. Israeli officials said Iranian forces had for the first time fired long-range missiles, expanding the risk of attacks beyond the Middle East, even as an Iranian strike injured dozens of people not far from Israel’s nuclear site. Iran launched two ballistic missiles with a range of 4,000 km at the US-British military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir said. The Israeli military said it was the first time Iran had used long-range missiles since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on February 28. “These missiles are not intended to strike Israel. Their range reaches European capitals — Berlin, Paris, and Rome are all within direct threat range,” Zamir said in a statement on Saturday. A source at Britain’s defence ministry said the attack had occurred before the government gave specific authorisation on Friday for the US to use British military bases to carry out strikes on Iranian missile sites. Trump sends mixed signals Trump and his administration have sent mixed messages about US goals throughout the war, now in its fourth week, leaving US allies struggling to respond. Trump’s ultimatum on Saturday was the most abrupt shift yet. Trump’s rhetoric pivoted from a drawdown to an explicit 48-hour countdown to strike Iran’s power infrastructure, even as US Marines and heavy landing craft continue heading to the region. Iran’s largest power plants include the Damavand power plant near Tehran (2,868 megawatts of capacity), the Kerman plant in southeastern Iran (1,910MW), and the Ramin steam power plant in Khuzestan province (1,890MW), according to industry and energy databases. The country’s sole nuclear plant at Bushehr on Iran’s southern coast produces about 1,000MW. Earlier this month, Trump raised the idea of destroying Iran’s power grid even while downplaying the notion. “We could take apart their electric capacity within one hour, and it would take them 25 years to rebuild,” Trump told reporters on March 11. “So ideally, we’re not going to be doing that.” US voters appear increasingly concerned that the war could expand. Energy price shocks are fuelling inflation, hitting consumers and businesses hard, a major political liability for Trump as he seeks to justify the war to the public before the November elections in which control of Congress is at stake. Trump had also accused Nato allies of cowardice over their reluctance to help open the strait. Some allies have said they will consider it, but most say they are reluctant to join a war that Trump started without consulting them. Iranian strikes hit southern Israel The Israeli military said on Sunday that it is conducting strikes in Tehran, hours after attacks on southern Israel. Late on Saturday, Iranian missiles hit the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad, injuring dozens of people, including children, in separate strikes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said in a statement early on Sunday that they targeted “military installations” and security centres in southern Israel. Israeli military spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin said in a post on X that the country’s air defences were functioning but did not intercept the strikes. “We will investigate the incident and learn from it,” he said. Israel’s secretive nuclear reactor is about 13 km southeast of Dimona. Both cities lie near several military sites, including Nevatim Air Base, one of the country’s largest. “This has been a very difficult evening in the battle for our future,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement released by his office following the strike on Arad. “We are determined to continue striking our enemies on all fronts,” the statement said.
DawnMarch 22, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTCThree weeks in, Iran war escalates beyond Trump’s control
President Donald Trump ends the third week of the Iran war, confronting a crisis that seems to be slipping out of his hands. Global energy prices are surging, the United States stands isolated from allies and more troops are preparing to deploy despite his promise that the war would be only a “short excursion.” A defensive Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was unfolding according to plan. But his declaration on Friday that the battle “was Militarily WON” clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran that is choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region. Trump, who took office promising to keep the US out of “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the messaging of a conflict he helped to initiate. The lack of a clear exit strategy carries risks both for his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects as Republicans scramble to defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections. “Trump has built himself a box called the Iran war, and he can’t figure out how to get out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “That’s his biggest source of frustration.” A White House official challenged that characterisation, with many of Iran’s top leaders eliminated in targeted killings, most of its navy sunk and its ballistic missile arsenal largely destroyed. “This has been an undisputed military success,” the official said. Limits of Trump’s power The limits of Trump’s power diplomatically, militarily and politically were thrown into sharp relief over the past week. He was caught off-guard by the resistance of fellow NATO members and other foreign partners to deploying their navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official who, like other officials Reuters spoke to for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. With the president not wanting to appear isolated, some White House aides have advised Trump to quickly find an “off-ramp” and set limits on the military operation’s scope, said one person close to the discussions. But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to sway Trump. In the view of some analysts, allies’ unwillingness reflects not only their reluctance over entanglement in a war they were not consulted on, but a backlash against his belittling of traditional US alliances since his return to office 14 months ago. Differences with Israel have also begun surfacing, with Trump insisting that he knew nothing in advance about the Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, while Israeli officials said the strike had indeed been coordinated with the US. Trump now finds himself at a crossroads in Operation Epic Fury with no clear sign of which path he might take, analysts say. He could go all-in and intensify the US offensive, possibly even seizing Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops along Iran’s coast to hunt for missile launchers. But that would risk a long-term military commitment that the American public would mostly oppose. Or, with both sides rejecting negotiations for now, Trump could declare victory and try to walk away, which could alienate Gulf allies who would be left with a wounded, hostile Iran — one that could still pursue a crude nuclear weapon and still exert control over shipping in the Gulf. Iran has denied it is seeking a nuclear weapon. Reuters reported on Friday that the US military is deploying thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East, although no decision had been made to send troops into Iran itself. The war has also shown Trump’s once-iron grip over his MAGA movement is weakening, with prominent influencers speaking out against the conflict. While his base has mostly stood with him so far, analysts say that Trump’s control could weaken in the coming weeks if gas prices keep rising and US troops are deployed. “As the economics play themselves out, Republican strategist Dave Wilson said, people will start to say: ‘Why am I paying high gas prices again? … Why is the Strait of Hormuz now determining whether or not I can take a vacation next month?’” Miscalculations Since the war’s start on February 28, there has been a growing realization within the administration that the conflict and its consequences should have been better mapped out in advance, according to two sources familiar with White House thinking, although the first White House official countered that the campaign was extensively planned and well-equipped for any potential action. Analysts say Trump’s biggest misjudgment was over how Iran would respond to a conflict that it considers existential. Tehran has retaliated with its missiles and a fleet of armed drones to offset its foes’ military superiority, striking neighboring Gulf states and mostly shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for one-fifth of the world’s oil. Whether or not Trump and his aides foresaw the dangers, they have been unable to counter them effectively. They failed to think through the contingencies around ways in which a conflict with Iran could go sideways, where it might not go according to the plan as they laid out, said former US ambassador John Bass, who served in Afghanistan and Turkey. As the conflict has dragged on, there have been increasing signs of Trump’s frustration with his inability to control the narrative. In recent days, he has torn into the news media, advancing unfounded allegations of treason for reporting that he sees as undermining the war effort. “He’s finding it difficult to drive the news cycle, as he’s accustomed to, because he still can’t explain why he’s taken this country to war and what comes next, said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration who now heads the Situation Room strategic consultancy in Washington. He seems to have lost his mojo on messaging.”
DawnMarch 21, 2026 at 10:41 AM UTCMiddle East crisis live: Trump considering ‘winding down’ war as US eases sanctions on Iranian oil; Israel launches retaliatory strikes
Move to allow shipments already at sea comes amid a supply crisis and after US president says he does not ‘want to do a ceasefire’; IDF says it is attacking regime targets in Tehran after missiles fired at Israel from Iran US to send three more warships and thousands more troops, reports say How the Iran war has sent shocks rippling across the globe Brinkmanship – the ability to take a country to the edge of war without plunging it into the abyss – was the cornerstone of cold war diplomacy. But in our different, more unstable times, the world this week finally tipped over the edge, and suddenly it is in freefall. The first six days of the Iran war cost the US $12.7bn (£9.5bn), but now the Pentagon is seeking as much as $200bn in military funding. Oil at $125 a barrel is no longer an Iranian, or Russian, fantasy. The crown jewel of Qatar, Ras Laffan – the world’s largest liquefied natural gas plant – may not reopen fully for five years, at a cost of $20bn a year. Other combustible oil depots in the Gulf, from Bahrain to Abu Dhabi, are exposed to Iran’s low-cost drones. Other playing cards have been designed that will enter the fray at the right time. Continue reading...
The Guardian WorldMarch 21, 2026 at 05:47 AM UTCTrump says considering ‘winding down’ Iran war but rules out ceasefire
President Donald Trump said Friday that the United States was considering “winding down” military operations against Iran but was not seeking a ceasefire with the Islamic Republic. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei meanwhile, claimed in a message to mark the first day of the Persian New Year to have delivered a “dizzying blow” to enemies in the three-week-old Middle East war. On Wall Street, stocks ended sharply lower after oil prices shot up on fears that lengthy supply disruptions could lead to a global economic downturn. All three major indices were firmly in the red, with the broad-based S&P 500 down 1.5 percent and the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, rising 3.3 percent to $112.19 per barrel. Turkiye lashed out at Israel meanwhile, for striking Syrian army camps in southern Syria, calling it a “dangerous escalation” and urging the international community to intervene. Syria has so far avoided being dragged into the regional war that began on February 28 when Israel and the United States began striking Iran, which has hit back by firing ballistic missiles and drones at countries across the region. Lebanon has also been targeted by Israeli airstrikes against Iranian ally Hezbollah, which have left more than 1,000 people dead according to the Lebanese health ministry. ‘We have won’ Trump, in a post on Truth Social, said the United States was “getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East”. The social media post was the strongest indication yet from the US president that he may be prepared to soon end hostilities. It came shortly after Trump told reporters at the White House that he was not looking for a truce. “I think we have won,” Trump said. “I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.” In his post, Trump said other nations will have to take responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, which has effectively been blockaded by Iran and which sees a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas pass through it in peacetime. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” he said. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.” Trump also said the United States wants to talk to Iran, but “there’s nobody to talk to” because of the killing of Iran’s former supreme leader and other top officials. Iran’s new supreme leader has not appeared in public since being named to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei. In a written statement to mark Nowruz, the Persian New Year, Mojtaba Khamenei said Iranians have “dealt him (the enemy) a dizzying blow so that he now starts uttering contradictory words and nonsense”. “At the moment, due to the particular unity that has been created between you our compatriots — despite all the differences in religious, intellectual, cultural and political origins — the enemy has been defeated,” Khamenei said. The statement of defiance came as Iranians marked a muted Nowruz punctuated by the sound of loud blasts in eastern and northern Tehran. Shoppers were out in force buying new clothes and gifts, although pavements were less packed than usual for this time of year, with many people having fled north. Gulf nations targeted Trump has repeatedly said he does not plan to send US ground troops into combat with Iran, but The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that an additional 2,200-2,500 US Marines were headed to the region. Trump would not confirm a report by the Axios news outlet that he was considering an occupation or blockade of Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait. “I may have a plan or I may not,” Trump said when asked by an AFP reporter. US forces hit Kharg with strikes that Trump said had “totally obliterated” all military targets on the island, but Washington has so far avoided hitting its oil infrastructure. In Jerusalem, the Israeli military blamed “Iranian missile fragments” for a blast that hit the Old City. It was not immediately clear if the missile had been intercepted or what its intended target was. Iranian attacks continued meanwhile on energy infrastructure in the Gulf. On Friday, drone attacks hit Kuwait’s giant Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, causing a fire that was later brought under control, a day after a direct hit on Qatar’s vital Ras Laffan natural gas facility. The attack caused “extensive damage” that Qatar’s state energy company said could cost $20 billion a year in lost revenue and take five years to repair. That could lead to high energy prices worldwide that outlast the conflict, increasing inflation and lowering economic growth.
DawnMarch 21, 2026 at 05:38 AM UTCWar Diary Day 21: Muted Nowruz, Eid in Iran
On the twenty-first day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, a sombre Nowruz and Eidul Fitr eve set the domestic mood in Iran, as fresh military developments and a shifting coalition posture pointed to an imminent widening of the war. Across Iran, the Persian New Year arrived without usual festivities associated with it. Celebrations were scaled down, with war, blackouts and economic strain shaping public sentiment. Markets remained open but subdued, and even among diaspora communities, observances lacked the usual fervour. ‘Rare moral boost’ Against this backdrop, a reported Iranian air defence success provided a rare morale boost. Iranian systems are said to have damaged a US F-35 during a combat mission, forcing it to make an emergency landing at Al-Dhafra Airbase in the United Arab Emirates. While the operational impact appears limited, the symbolic value of hitting a stealth fifth-generation aircraft would be considerable. The Iranian media is projecting it as evidence that advanced US platforms can be challenged. Under stressful situations, such narratives serve to reinforce resilience. Meanwhile, an Israeli reservist working for the Iron Dome air defence system was arrested on allegations of spying for Iran. The individual is reported to have maintained covert contact with Iranian handlers over an extended period and to have shared sensitive operational details in return for payment. While the full extent of the breach remains unclear, the case has been described by investigators as among the more serious incidents of its kind, underscoring the increasing role of intelligence operations alongside the ongoing military confrontation. Evolving military balance and a diplomatic shift The military balance, however, has continued to evolve. The imminent arrival of the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer, with their embarked Marine forces, is expected to boost US capabilities in the region, thereby expanding Washington’s options in the Gulf, including potential operations linked to securing maritime routes or seizing strategic islands. This would increase the risk of direct confrontation in the littoral space. At the same time, a notable diplomatic shift has emerged. Several Western and allied countries, after initially expressing reluctance, have signalled their willingness to support efforts aimed at ensuring maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. While details remain unclear, the move suggests a gradual hardening of positions after weeks of hesitation. For Washington, this provides some support to its effort to internationalise the issue, though questions remain about the scale and sustainability of such involvement. Diverging war aims Despite this, divergences in war aims are becoming more visible. The US focus remains on reopening the Strait and containing the conflict, whereas Israeli objectives appear broader, with indications that long-term strategic change in Iran remains part of its calculus. This gap is complicating coordination and adds another layer of uncertainty to the trajectory of the war. On the ground, Iran continues to rely on a strategy of endurance and horizontal escalation. Pressure is being maintained through missile and drone operations, as well as proxy activity across multiple fronts. Developments in Lebanon and Iraq indicate that these fronts remain active, reinforcing the pattern of distributed pressure that has defined the conflict in recent days. The economic dimension is also becoming more pronounced. Disruptions linked to energy flows, supply chains and insurance costs are beginning to accumulate, with potential knock-on effects extending beyond the region. These pressures are likely to intensify if the conflict continues along its current trajectory, particularly if energy infrastructure and maritime routes remain contested. The situation at the end of Day 21 reinforced the assessment that the conflict was steadily expanding in scope while becoming harder to control. The combination of domestic strain in Iran, incremental coalition building on the US side, and continued military pressure across multiple theatres suggests that the coming days, particularly around the Nowruz period, could prove decisive in determining whether the war stabilises or moves into a more dangerous phase. Header image: An Iranian flag flutters as a digger arrives to help remove the debris from destroyed buildings following a military strike on the Iranian capital Tehran on March 15, 2026. — AFP/ File
DawnMarch 20, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTCIran’s escalation dominance
THE ongoing hostilities in the Israel-US war on Iran — with Tehran raining missiles and drones on the Zionist apartheid state and Washington’s interests in the region in retaliation for attacks on Iran’s military sites and infrastructure, including energy assets, and the mass murder of its leaders and schoolgirls — is one side of the equation. The other side consists of the fog generated by disinformation, claims, denials and spin. The latest is the attack on the infrastructure of Iran’s South Pars gas fields by Israel. Within hours, Iran retaliated with an attack on the same North Dome gas facilities in Qatar (the gas fields straddle the waters of the two states and are said to be the largest gas reservoir in the world). Spread over some 9,700 square kilometres, they are said to meet 20 per cent of the global gas demand and 80pc of Asia’s needs. Iran also hit other Gulf energy sites. In a social media post, US President Donald Trump claimed that the US had no prior knowledge of Israel’s attack on the gas infrastructure, while saying (in capital letters) that Israel would not attack energy infrastructure anymore. He went on to threaten Iran with massive US retaliation if it continued to attack energy targets in the Gulf. A little later, Israeli ‘sources’ said the US had approved the attack plan. Trump is said to have changed his tune after his Qatari allies protested in a phone call. The region seems dangerously poised after the Gulf nations — home to US military bases and about 50,000 troops — that say they oppose the war, threatened retaliation if they continue to come under attack from Iran. If the Gulf states actively join the war, will Saudi Arabia invoke its defence pact with Pakistan, is a question that many will be asking as they wonder about the ramifications of such an event. The Israeli ambassador to India this week called Pakistan a rogue state with a nuclear weapon. Benjamin Netanyahu and Narendra Modi are avowed allies. What will be our vulnerabilities external and internal? If the Arab states attack Iran, there will be celebrations in Tel Aviv as the Zionist dream would have come true. If the Gulf states attack Iran, there will be celebrations in Tel Aviv as the Zionist dream would have come true to have the region at war with itself and in chaos, while Israel gains a free hand to continue to expand its occupation of the West Bank and its murderous campaign in Gaza, despite the ‘ceasefire’. The 12-day war launched by Israel on Iran last year came amidst talks between Iran and the US. Trump claimed to have ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear programme using bunker buster bombs and announced a ceasefire. Another round of talks began this year, during which both the Omani foreign minister-mediator and the British interlocutor said Iran had offered an ‘unprecedented deal’. But the US went ahead and agreed with the extremist Zionist state to launch a war on Iran. One source said that American interlocutors Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were acting as ‘Israel’s agents’. This war too began with decapitation strikes during which Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several top military figures, including the defence minister, were killed. Trump, as usual, was quick to claim victory, saying that Iran’s military, including its missile/ drone production and launch sites had been wiped out and also its (practically non-existent) air force and navy and whatever else he could think of. The only rebuttal Iran offered was to continue to target US eyes and ears (key radars including one facility said to be worth over $1billion) in the region with drones and missiles. It also hit Israel. Its succession planning and decentralisation of military commands delivered unequivocally with the government remaining intact and Iran retaining the capability to hit back. Tough censorship in Israel is not allowing a proper picture of its losses. Hezbollah, the Iran-allied Lebanese group that was supposed to be dead after the ‘pagers’ assault, and the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, not only returned to life but seemed to have added considerable range to its missiles, which are now hitting targets not just in the border areas but as far as 200 kilometres inside Israel. Its attacks on Israeli occupation forces in south Lebanon are lethal. Israel is responding with the indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas and threatening invasion. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed to all traffic but what Iran allows through. Oil and gas prices are rising sharply — in fact, gas prices were pushed up 20-25pc in a day in London! If the war continues, gas shortages will impact the production of fertiliser and eventually global food supplies. Countries like Pakistan are already reeling from the impact of the war as rising fuel prices threaten to unleash an inflationary spike. As mayhem is unleashed in the markets, with dwindling energy supplies from South Asia to East Asia pushing up prices dramatically, a US Marines expeditionary force is set to arrive in the Gulf by next Wednesday. However, with no more than 2,500 Marines, it is not clear whether the US will attempt to land on the heavily fortified Qeshm Island from where Iran controls the narrowest part of the Hormuz. Or Kharg Island from where Iran exports 90pc of its oil. Does the US have the appetite for taking losses which, many experts believe, are inevitable in a bloody ground fight? Retired Col Lawrence Wilkerson, former chief of staff to Gen Colin Powell, fears that Iran is holding back the use of its ‘Mach 4/5’ Khorramshehr hypersonic missiles with multiple warheads (not cluster munitions), which could be used to ‘sink’ US vessels including aircraft carriers. “We have nothing to stop those with,” he warned in a podcast. In such an event, what weapons will the leaders of a demoralised force use? Energy price hikes and an unpopular war will spell disaster for Trump-supporting members of Congress in the November elections. If he loses the House majority, impeachment will follow. Will that be a restraining factor on Trump? Will he be able to find an exit ramp? The writer is a former editor of Dawn. abbas.nasir@hotmail.com Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2026
DawnMarch 20, 2026 at 04:47 AM UTCUS rushes $16bn arms to Gulf after Iran warns of ‘zero restraint’
SMOKE rises after an Iranian retaliatory salvo damaged an Israeli oil refinery in Haifa.—Reuters • Tehran strikes Qatari LNG plant, Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries • Trump warns of ‘furious response’ if attacks on Qatar continue • Rules out troop deployment, but officials say reinforcements under review • Hegseth sets no timeline for war; White House to seek $200bn more from Congress • Global energy markets shaken; Brent jumps to $119, gas prices up 35pc • Riyadh asserts it reserves right to retaliate after refinery drone strike • Netanyahu says Israel ‘acted alone’ in striking Iran gas field • Claims Tehran no longer able to enrich uranium or build missiles DOHA: As Washington rushed to arm its Gulf allies with a $16.46 billion military package, Iran issued its starkest warning yet, vowing “zero restraint” if its energy infrastructure is targeted again, pushing the Middle East closer to a regional war. The developments came after Iranian attacks on the world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait sent shock waves through energy markets on Thursday, with the United States stressing that there was no deadline to end the Middle East war. Amid growing fears over the economic damage from the war, US President Donald Trump said there would be no repeat of Israel’s attack on Iran’s key South Pars gas field, but he warned of a furious US response if Tehran did not halt strikes on Qatar. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later claimed that Israel had acted unilaterally in striking Iran’s massive South Pars gas field. “Israel acted alone against the Asaluyeh gas compound… President Trump asked us to hold off on future attacks, and we’re holding out,” he has said at a televised press conference. He also claimed in a news conference that Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles after 20 days of US-Israeli air attacks, Reuters reported. Oil markets have already been shaken by Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. But the international benchmark Brent surged 10 per cent to $119 a barrel before falling back to $112, while European gas prices rose 35pc, after Iranian missiles hit Qatar’s huge Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex in retaliation for the Israeli strike on South Pars on Wednesday. Interestingly, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington could consider lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already in transit. Talking to Fox Business, he added that the US government could also release more oil from its strategic reserves to help ease price pressure. Meanwhile, QatarEnergy said that the nighttime attack on Ras Laffan, a repeated target since the start of the war on Feb 28, caused “extensive damage”. Its CEO told Reuters the Iranian attacks had knocked out a sixth of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, worth $20bn a year, and that repairs would take three to five years. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said the attack was “clear proof” that Iran was going past its vow to only target US interests in the Gulf. And attacks blamed on Iran spread. A drone crashed into the Samref refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, the Saudi defence ministry said. The government reserved the “right to take military actions” in response. In Kuwait, drone attacks sparked fires at the Mina Abdullah and Mina Al-Ahmadi refineries, which have a combined capacity of 800,000 barrels per day. Blasts were also heard in Bahrain’s capital of Manama, according to AFP. ‘Successive punishment’ Even in Israel, the media said an oil refinery in the port of Haifa was hit on Thursday, after the military warned of missiles launched by Iran. Israel’s Kan 11 public broadcaster aired images on television showing a thick plume of dark smoke rising from the area of the refinery. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency also reported that Tehran had launched missiles at Israel, adding that Tel Aviv’s “successive punishment continues”. The Israeli military said that its fighter jets had struck several Iranian naval vessels in the Caspian Sea the previous day, AFP reported. The targets included ships equipped with missile systems, support vessels and patrol craft, the military said, adding that a port command centre was also hit in the operation. The targeted Iranian ships were also equipped with aerial surveillance systems and anti-submarine missiles, the military said. Meanwhile, US and Israeli attacks in the morning in Iran’s north-western city of Tabriz killed several people, including four taekwondo athletes, Al Jazeera reported. A US-based rights group reported more than 3,000 people killed in Iran by the US-Israeli strikes, a figure that could not be independently verified. US F-35 damaged Separately, a US F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing at a US air base in the Middle East after it was struck by what is believed to be Iranian fire, CNN reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The strike would be the first time Iran has hit a US aircraft since the war began. On the US military aid to the UAE and Kuwait, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has “determined and provided detailed justification that an emergency exists that requires the immediate sale” of the military equipment, thereby waiving the requirement that Congress give its approval. The biggest single sale is of lower-tier air and missile defence sensor radars — which are designed to track high-speed targets and give data to a missile defence network — for $8bn, according to a statement from the State Department. The next largest is to the United Arab Emirates for a long-range discrimination radar — which tracks ballistic missile threats — and related equipment at a cost of $4.5bn. The UAE has also received approval to buy systems designed to defeat small, unmanned aircraft for $2.1bn, advanced air-to-air missiles for $1.22bn, and F-16 warplane munitions and upgrades for $644 million. ‘Zero restraint’ Trump indicated he did not know in advance about Israel’s raid on South Pars, which supplies about 70pc of Iran’s domestic needs. But he said he had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to hit more gas fields in Iran. “We get along great. It’s coordinated, but on occasion, he’ll do something” that the United States opposes, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, where he met Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. “I told him, ‘Don’t do that’, and he won’t do that,” he said. He also said on Thursday that there was no current plan to send troops into Iran. At his meeting with Takaichi, Trump said he had no plans to deploy ground forces. “I’m not putting troops anywhere,” he said. However, a US official and three other people familiar with the planning told Reuters that Trump was considering sending thousands more US troops to the Middle East. Iran responded to the threats with defiance. The military’s Khatam Al-Anbiya operational command vowed the “complete destruction” of Gulf energy infrastructure if the Israeli attack was repeated, according to a statement carried by Fars news agency. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media there would be “ZERO restraint” if Iran’s infrastructure was hit again. There is growing concern among the world’s major economies over fallout from the conflict. Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the Netherlands said they would “contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz” but gave few details. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned the “reckless escalation” in attacks and called for “direct talks between the Americans and Iranians on this matter”. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office warned that “attacks on critical infrastructure risked pushing the region further into crisis”, after talks with Macron and Nato chief Mark Rutte. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also urged restraint, warning that the conflict risked spiralling “out of control” with “potential tragic consequences” for civilians and the global economy. Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said there is no time frame for ending the war, but that “we’re very much on track” and Trump would choose when to end fighting. Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2026
DawnMarch 20, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTCUN’s Guterres tells US, Israel ‘it is high time to end war’, urges Iran to ‘stop attacking neighbours’
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Thursday called on the US and Isreal to end the war on Iran while urging Tehran to stop “attacking your neighbours”. “Let me start by two clear messages. First, to the United States and to Israel: It’s high time to end this war that is risking to get completely out of control, causing immense suffering on civilians and with propagation around the global economy, that is really dramatic with potential tragic consequences, especially for the least developed countries,” Guterres told reporters in Brussels after he met with European Union leaders. Then, turning his attention to Iran, he said: “Stop attacking your neighbours; they were never parties to the conflict.” Guterres’s remarks come as the US-Israel war on Iran rages on. It began was Washington and Tel Aviv launching strikes on Iran on February 28, which also resulted in the assassination of supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The war has expanded since, with Iran targeting US assets and bases in Gulf countries. On March 11, the UN Security Council adopted a Bahrain-led resolution condemning Iran’s in Gulf countries while, at the same session, the US vetoed a resolution presented by Russia, calling for de-escalation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the conflict has also resulted in a global oil crisis and increased inflation, with the disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure. Guterres recalled in his remarks that the UNSC had condemned the attacks on Iran’s neighbours and “has ordered them to stop, as it has ordered to open the Strait of Hormuz”. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, he warned, “causes enormous pain in so many people around the world who have nothing to do with this conflict”. “It’s time for the force of the law to prevail over the law of the force. It’s time for diplomacy to prevail over war,” he added.
DawnMarch 19, 2026 at 04:59 PM UTCWar Diary Day 20: Energy war pushes region to the brink
On the 20th day of the US-Israel war against Iran, the conflict stood on the threshold of an all-out regional war, with strikes on energy infrastructure now defining its deadly trajectory while diplomatic efforts struggled to keep pace. The past 24 hours indicated a clear shift from a primarily military contest to one increasingly centred on economic targets. Israeli strikes on Iranian energy assets, particularly gas processing facilities linked to the South Pars field, represented an expansion of the battlefield. Though Iranian oil depots had previously been attacked by Israel and Iran had in response struck an Israeli refinery in Haifa, the scale, symbolism and strategic intent behind Israel’s South Pars operation triggered an immediate and far broader Iranian retaliation, with ballistic missile and drone strikes that set Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub ablaze, damaged Kuwait’s major refineries and hit Saudi and Bahraini energy sites. With this threshold now crossed, the conflict is now set to move into a sustained campaign against the region’s energy backbone. Each strike in this dangerous new phase will invite reciprocal economic pain, as it has already driven oil above $113 per barrel and increased European gas prices by 27–30 per cent. More importantly, this phase could drag reluctant Gulf states deeper into the fighting, thus widening the conflict horizontally while simultaneously amplifying pressure on global energy markets. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains central to this evolving phase. Iran has continued to exercise calibrated control, allowing limited passage under its own terms while restricting traffic linked to its adversaries. This selective closure allows Tehran to sustain pressure without triggering a complete shutdown that could provoke a broader international response. However, with energy infrastructure now under wider attack, the feasibility of continuing this calibrated approach is also becoming uncertain. The Callisto tanker sits anchored in Port Sultan Qaboos as the traffic is down in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Muscat, Oman, March 12, 2026. — Reuters On the other side, the US posture continues to signal intent to contest Iranian leverage in the Gulf as shown by its reported plan to send thousands of additional troops to the region. Washington’s dilemma is that while military options remain constrained by operational risks, efforts to build a broader coalition have not yielded much. This absence of a credible multinational framework to clear the Strait of Hormuz for international maritime traffic is therefore weighing heavily on Washington’s approach. Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia’s initiative to convene an emergency meeting of a group of Arab and Muslim countries’ foreign ministers was seen with particular interest. The gathering, on one hand, reflected growing concern within the region over the economic and security fallout of a prolonged conflict, while on the other, it gave voice to Gulf states’ anxiety about becoming increasingly exposed to the consequences of escalation, particularly in the energy domain. Yet the outcome exposed the limits of diplomacy. There was little in the joint statement to suggest that a concrete move was afoot to contain or at least alter the conflict’s trajectory. The gap between military escalation and diplomatic sluggishness, partly due to anger among Arab rulers over Iran, continues to widen, leaving regional actors with diminishing space to influence outcomes. On the battlefield, the broader pattern of attrition persisted during the past 24 hours. Iran intensified missile and drone operations alongside proxy pressure, while the US and Israel maintained strikes on military and strategic targets. The growing focus on energy assets suggested that both sides are now seeking leverage not just through battlefield gains, but through economic disruption. Mourners participate in a procession during the funeral of Iran’s national security chief Ali Larijani, Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani and Iranian sailors killed in recent strikes, in Tehran on March 18, 2026. — AFP On the proxy fronts, Hezbollah scored significant tactical successes in southern Lebanon, ambushing Israeli forces in Taybeh and destroying at least six Merkava tanks with guided missiles and anti-tank guided missiles, while heavy clashes and rocket barrages continued as Israeli helicopters evacuated casualties under fire. Iraqi resistance groups, meanwhile, offered a conditional five-day halt in attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad in exchange for Israeli cessation of bombing of Beirut. Yemen’s Houthis remained in a test-fire posture but have issued fresh warnings tied to the USS Tripoli’s approach. The sense at the end of the 20th day of war was that intensifying energy warfare during this complex and more destabilising phase will raise the costs for all parties involved, while reducing the margin for controlled escalation. Header image: A picture shows a view of the phase 12 of the South Pars gas field facilities near the southern Iranian town of Kangan on the shore of the Gulf on January 22, 2014. — AFP
DawnMarch 19, 2026 at 02:40 PM UTC