United States air refueller downed over Iraq in Iran conflict
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View on mapIsraeli attack on largest gas field turns Middle East into powder keg
• Tehran threatens, launches retaliatory attacks on energy facilities in the region • UAE, Qatar slam Tel Aviv attack on South Pars field, which Israel claims was approved by Washington • Pezeshkian warns of ‘uncontrollable consequences’ as oil stays above $106 per barrel • World economies scale back, take measures to cope with fallout PARIS / DUBAI: Oil-rich Middle Eastern states were in a state of panic, after an Israeli attack on the world’s largest gas field triggered threats of severe retaliation from Tehran. Pars is the Iranian sector of the world’s largest natural gas deposit, which it shares with Qatar across the Gulf. The strikes hit the South Pars/North Dome mega-field, the largest known gas reserve in the world, supplying around 70 per cent of Iran’s domestic natural gas. The Fars news agency reported on Wednesday that gas tanks and parts of a refinery had been hit, workers had been evacuated to a safe location and emergency crews were trying to put out a fire. As a result, Iranian flows to Iraq were halted as it diverted gas domestically, a senior Iraqi official told Reuters. Tehran supplies between a third and 40pc of Iraq’s gas and power needs. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has condemned attacks on the Islamic republic’s energy infrastructure, writing on X, “Such aggressive acts will yield nothing for the Zionist-American enemy and their supporters. “This will complicate the situation and could have uncontrollable consequences, the scope of which could engulf the entire world,” he adds. Israel claimed the attack was carried out with US consent, and in response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards told Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to evacuate several energy facilities. The attacks have raised concerns that Iran could now target infrastructure of global energy majors across the Gulf, and alternative regional export routes such as Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu. The warning was directed at Saudi Arabia’s Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex, the UAE’s Al Hosn Gas Field, and Qatar’s Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex, Mesaieed Holding Company and Ras Laffan Refinery. “These centres have become direct and legitimate targets and will be targeted in the coming hours. Therefore, all citizens, residents, and employees are requested to immediately leave these areas and move to a safe distance without any delay,” Iranian state media cited authorities as saying. Later, Saudi Arabia said it destroyed five drones headed towards a gas plant and four missiles targeting its capital on Wednesday, while Qatar said it was dealing with multiple Iranian attacks, and a fire in the Ras Laffan area. UAE also said it was responding to fresh missile threats. Both Doha and Abu Dhabi had earlier condemned Israeli attacks on the South Pars field as “dangerous and irresponsible”. Qatar has fully shut its liquefied natural gas production because of the war, and any damage to facilities could extend the outage beyond May, threatening to keep a fifth of global LNG supply offline. As a result, Brent crude prices rose over 6pc at one point to nearly $110 a barrel, before settling back down towards $106.95, a gain of 3.4pc. The attacks on South Pars make it even more likely the war will continue into May, said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. “The biggest concern will be the potential for attacks against Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline or export facilities on the Red Sea which alongside Fujairah offer the only significant alternative to the Strait of Hormuz,” Soltvedt added. Fallout on markets To help ease energy costs that have surged since US-Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into war, President Donald Trump has temporarily waived a century-old shipping law. Trump’s move to issue a 60-day Jones Act waiver would lift a ban on foreign-flagged vessels transporting cargo between US ports over this period. It is a step to mitigate “short-term disruptions to the oil market” from the conflict, said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement. Iraq, meanwhile, announced it had resumed limited oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, using a pipeline that avoids the under-fire Strait of Hormuz. Shipping fuel prices have reached “truly unprecedented” levels, having nearly doubled from the cargo crunch driven by the Middle East war, an industry leader told AFP on Wednesday. The war is now forcing petrochemical giants in key Asian economies to cut production as the conflict rattles supplies of naphtha, a crucial oil-derived component used to make a range of plastic goods. German chemicals giant BASF raised prices on some of its industrial products in Europe by 30pc due to rising energy and input prices. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has urged electric vehicle owners to stop charging their cars at night, saying the surge in demand is forcing the country to burn more coal and diesel to keep the power grid running. Published in Dawn, March 19th, 2026
DawnMarch 19, 2026 at 02:56 AM UTCWar Diary Day 19: Nuclear shadow deepens as energy war expands
On the 19th day of the US-Israeli war against Iran, the conflict is being shaped by two interlocking dynamics wherein the nuclear threshold has not been crossed but is increasingly blurred, while the fighting has spread across multiple theatres. Together, these trends reinforce each other, with each escalation raising the nuclear risk even as the grinding nature of the war makes de-escalation harder. The latest escalation underscores this shift. A strike on the Bushehr nuclear power facility, though limited in immediate damage, has pushed the conflict into a more dangerous phase. The absence of a radiological incident has not diminished the significance of the event. It has instead introduced a new risk regarding the possibility of reciprocal targeting of nuclear-linked infrastructure. Similarly, Trump’s plan for seizing enriched uranium stockpiles carries extreme escalation risks. While any such move would almost certainly trigger Iranian retaliation, there are risks with even attempting to seize those stockpiles because of potential radiological hazards and the operation’s risky mechanics. Therefore, what was earlier implicit has now moved closer to operational consideration. A fire burns outside the grounds of the US Embassy headquarters in Baghdad’s fortified “Green Zone”, in Iraq on on March 17, following a drone and rocket attack. — AFP In parallel, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central theatre of contestation. Overnight strikes by US forces using heavy bunker buster munitions against Iranian coastal missile positions point to a strategy to weaken Tehran’s ability to control access to the waterway. Additionally, the incoming deployment of the USS Tripoli, with its embarked Marine force, adds to indications that Washington is preparing for more direct options, including potential ground operations against Iranian islands, though the effectiveness of such a strategy remains uncertain. Any attempt to seize key nodes such as Kharg Island or the Tunb islands would carry significant operational risks, even as the chances of neutralising Iran’s wider asymmetric capabilities remain low. Instead, it could trigger broader attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Currently, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is selective rather than absolute, allowing limited passage for states not involved in the conflict while restricting traffic linked to the US-Israel coalition. This calibrated approach has allowed Tehran to sustain economic pressure without fully closing the channel. The US is said to be even allowing Iranian vessels to carry oil so as to reduce pressure on the oil market due to the crisis. Therefore, further escalation in the Strait would increase the crisis instead of resolving it. An Indian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier, Shivalik, arrives at Mundra Port , in Gujarat, India, via the Strait of Hormuz on March 16, amid the US-Israel conflict. — Reuters The Israeli strike on multiple facilities in Iran’s South Pars gas field, targeting for the first time critical gas processing infrastructure that underpins Iran’s economy, is yet another deliberate expansion of the conflict in the energy domain. The attack, reportedly coordinated with and approved by Washington, indicates a shift in US-Israeli calculus, with Iran’s broader energy sector now treated as a legitimate theatre of operations. This move is likely to invite a symmetric response, with Iranian retaliation expected against gas and LNG infrastructure across the Gulf, from Saudi to Qatari facilities. The wider contest involving hydrocarbon lifelines highlights an impending, much graver energy crisis. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s latest remarks reflect Tehran’s positioning on the issue of navigation through Hormuz. He has framed any potential end to the conflict not in terms of a ceasefire, but a comprehensive settlement that addresses all active fronts, including Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Central to this vision is a new framework governing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. His vision for the post-war arrangement underscores Tehran’s intent to convert its current leverage into a longer-term strategic arrangement. While leaving the door open to proposals from external actors, his formulation makes clear that Iran does not view a return to the pre-war status quo as acceptable. On the battlefield, the pattern of sustained pressure continues. Iran’s latest missile barrages mark a qualitative shift, with more advanced systems being used to penetrate Israeli defences and target urban and strategic sites. Strikes have also continued on US positions in the Gulf. At the same time, proxy fronts remain active. Hezbollah has continued rocket fire into northern Israel as ground fighting in southern Lebanon has settled into a slow and contested campaign, while Iraqi militias have maintained pressure on US installations, not only in Iraq, but have also been reported to have targeted a base in Jordan. A man uses an excavator to clean debris at the site of an Israeli strike, following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the, Zuqaq al-Blat district in central Beirut, Lebanon, March 18. — Reuters Israel, for its part, appears to be widening the scope of its operations. Authorisation for expanded targeting of Iranian leadership figures indicates that the decapitation campaign will continue. The Israeli defence minister has warned of surprises after what Hebrew media described as “one of the hardest nights” for Israel, with fires, power outages, warehouse explosions, and infrastructure damage due to intense Iranian missile attacks. Meanwhile, ground operations in Lebanon are being sustained by Israel despite not so significant territorial gains, suggesting an approach centred on pressure rather than breakthrough. Diplomatically, the picture remains constrained. US President Donald Trump has continued to press allies to support maritime operations in the Strait, but without a meaningful response. Trump’s frustration with Nato has become more explicit, even as he signalled that the US is prepared to proceed without broader coalition backing. Gulf states, meanwhile, are attempting to balance competing pressures. While wary of direct involvement, they remain concerned about the implications of prolonged Iranian leverage over regional energy flows. A Saudi-hosted meeting of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers on Thursday is expected to call for restraint, but is unlikely to alter the immediate trajectory. These developments are therefore pointing to a conflict that is becoming harder to contain. An easy conclusion at this point in time is that each incremental move carries greater risk, while the space for a negotiated exit continues to narrow. Header image: Smoke rises after Israeli strikes following an escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon on March 12. — Reuters
DawnMarch 18, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTCPakistan’s dilemma
PAKISTAN’S diplomatic balancing act may not prevent it from being drawn into the escalating conflict, which has already sucked in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations. Iran, under attack by America and Israel, has targeted not only US military bases in the Gulf but also oil installations in the region. Tehran asserts that these bases are legitimate targets because they are used to launch attacks against it. Although these countries have not yet directly responded to the Iranian strikes, they have effectively become a part of America’s war that does not seem to be ending soon. The widening conflict is not only threatening their security but also resulting in massive financial losses for them. These countries are caught in a war not of their choosing. According to Western media reports, countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, attempted to prevent the US from launching this war due to awareness of its implications. However, these nations, which host over a dozen military bases with more than 50,000 American troops, were unable to stop President Donald Trump’s war of choice. They also did not categorically denounce America’s aggressive actions against Iran or the killing of its leader. The GCC countries have established special relations with the Trump administration and are committed to investing billions of dollars in the US. These nations, along with Israel, are also members of Trump’s controversial Board of Peace, formed under his personal leadership and established just weeks before the US-Israeli attack on Iran. It is believed that the BoP served as a cover for America’s imperialist ambitions. The attack on Iran placed these countries in a difficult position, as they are also bound in security pacts with the US. Bound by a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan is in a precarious position. Iran’s robust retaliation and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that carries a fifth of global crude oil supplies have drastically altered the situation. This has effectively halted oil and gas exports, which are critical to Gulf economies. Experts estimate that between $700 million and $1.2 billion in oil revenue are being lost daily. Additionally, Gulf airlines are incurring billions of dollars in losses due to airspace closures. Airports have been regularly targeted by Iranian missiles, affecting flight operations. Tourism and investments have significantly declined as the war continues, further frustrating the GCC countries. Although most missiles and drones fired by Iran are successfully intercepted, it comes at a steep cost. The interceptors and air defence systems are costing these countries up to $2bn and they are in short supply. Many of these nations feel unprotected by the US. More concerning is a recent report in The New York Times. Senior US administration officials said Trump has been receiving advice from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “to keep hitting Iran hard”. If accurate, this reflects the growing hostility between Iran and the Saudi kingdom. This could further the agendas of the US and Israel in the Middle East. Such a situation poses serious dangers to the region. The Gulf Arab states may not have backed the US in going to war with Iran. However, many now appear to be urging the Trump administration to neutralise Iran’s military capability to protect the Gulf’s oil lifeline and economies, according to media reports. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly pressing Gulf states to join its efforts against Iran to seek legitimacy for its military actions. Trump’s close aide Senator Lindsey Graham recently questioned whether the US should honour a long-sought defence pact with Saudi Arabia. He cited the kingdom’s refusal to join military operations against Iran as a challenge to justifying the partnership. In a statement on social media, he said, “Hopefully, Gulf Cooperation Council countries will get more involved as this fight is in their backyard.” The post concluded with a veiled warning: “If not, consequences will follow,” he reportedly stated. While expressing support for US military action, it remains unclear if Gulf Arab countries will actively join the conflict. Meanwhile, Trump has announced the deployment of 2,500 US Marines, marking a new and dangerous phase in the conflict, which has now entered its third week. The decision to send additional troops to a region where 50,000 American personnel are already stationed raises serious concerns about the possibility of the US initiating a ground operation in Iran. Marine Expeditionary Units can rapidly deploy ground detachments of troops and vehicles. Earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted at the potential for ground troops to recover a highly enriched uranium stockpile that could be used by Iran to build nuclear weapons. “People are going to have to go and get it,” he stated before Congress. Rubio did not give more details, but there have been media reports of discussions regarding a special forces operation inside Iran. Any such action could plunge the region into a prolonged conflict. All this places Pakistan, which is bound by a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, in a precarious position. Islamabad has so far maintained a delicate balance in this ongoing conflict; while criticising missile attacks on Gulf countries, it has also condemned the US-Israeli aggression against Iran. However, this tightrope act may not continue if Saudi Arabia is drawn into a direct confrontation with Iran. Pakistan has pledged to assist Saudi Arabia if the kingdom’s sovereignty or territorial integrity is threatened. The prime minister recently travelled to the kingdom with the chief of defence forces to discuss the regional situation with the Saudi leadership, following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the latter’s counterattacks on Gulf countries. Details of a ‘restricted’ meeting between the Pakistani leadership and the Saudi crown prince remain unclear. This country has troops in Saudi Arabia for the kingdom’s security. If the kingdom or other GCC members enter into a direct conflict with Iran, the current situation would change. Pakistan shares a 900-kilometre border with Iran. Any conflict could have political repercussions for Pakistan, which is also affected by US-Israeli actions across the border. The writer is an author and journalist. zhussain100@yahoo.com X: @hidhussain Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2026
DawnMarch 18, 2026 at 04:51 AM UTCExit strategy
MOST members of the international community, particularly states in the greater Middle East, are gravely concerned about the direction the US-Israeli war on Iran is taking. The aggression has taken a heavy civilian toll in Iran, including the slaughter of schoolgirls in the Iranian town of Minab by a suspected American missile, while the global economy is on incredibly thin ice. Yet there is no sign that the US-Israeli combine realises that the so-called Operation Epic Fury is fast turning into an “epic failure”, with Iran unwilling to throw in the towel. There have been reports in the US media that President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has traded messages with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. But Mr Araghchi has denied this, saying his last contact with Mr Witkoff was “prior to his employer’s decision to kill diplomacy”. Moreover, there are also reports that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has rejected outreach to the US. Meanwhile, the US is floundering in this war of choice with no clear game plan. Mr Trump’s request to his European and Nato allies to assemble a coalition of the willing to end the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has met with a cool reception. The German, British, Greek and other European governments have basically said ‘this is not our war’; the EU foreign policy chief has expressed similar sentiments. The fact is that the US finds itself isolated at this point, except for the enthusiastic support from Israel, which has always been keen to spread havoc in the region. Therefore, the Trump administration must rethink its approach as its objective of achieving regime change in Tehran is not likely to be achieved anytime soon. If Mr Trump is serious about ending the war, he must declare an immediate ceasefire. Considering that the Iranians have been betrayed twice by the US during negotiations — before last year’s 12-day war, and, more recently, in the run-up to the latest aggression — there is a massive trust deficit in Tehran. More bellicosity will only harden Iran’s position. Israel must be particularly reined in. Decapitation strikes — such as the one in which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated, and the latest one of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani being hit — will hardly create a conducive atmosphere for a negotiated solution. Some reports say the Israelis have planned attacks for several more weeks. If the situation is to be normalised, the rogue behaviour of both the US and Israel must be contained. Perhaps America’s European allies can more forcefully project the need for Mr Trump to wind down this useless war, for the sake of global security and economic well-being. It remains to be seen if the Trump administration can swallow this bitter pill. Published in Dawn, March 18th, 2026
DawnMarch 18, 2026 at 04:32 AM UTCTuesday briefing: How the conflict in Iran shattered the Gulf state image of peace and luxury
In today’s newsletter: As drones and missiles hit Dubai, Doha and other sites across the Gulf, Hannah Ellis Peterson explains what happens next for the region Morning everyone, I’m Patrick Greenfield – you may recognise the name from my environment reporting over the years (or perhaps you read my piece about the possible rebirth of a long-extinct 12ft bird). I’ll be joining you on First Edition for the next few months, where I will inevitably be turning my attention to some rather more worrisome news than the Jurassic Park-adjacent ambitions of a US startup. On that note: no Gulf state wanted war with Iran. But, as fighting in the Middle East enters its third week, the region finds itself on the frontline of an increasingly intractable conflict. After the US-Israeli attack on Iran in late February, drones and missiles have showered the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia – bringing the region’s oil and gas industries to a near standstill, and prompting an exodus of tourists and expats. UK news | Keir Starmer has said the UK will not be drawn into the wider war in the Middle East, after Donald Trump called for allies to send warships to the strait of Hormuz to help unblock global oil supplies from the region. Starmer also announced that households reliant on heating oil to warm their homes would receive £53m of government support to help with their bills. Health | A sixth-form student at Queen Elizabeth’s grammar school in Faversham has been confirmed as the second person to have died after an outbreak of meningitis in Kent. Environment | Realtime pollution alerts are urgently needed across Windermere, campaigners have said, as the mother of a seven-year-old boy who kayaked on the lake described how he nearly died after contracting a dangerous strain of E coli from contaminated water. Media | The BBC has asked a US court to throw out Donald Trump’s $10bn (£7.5bn) lawsuit over the way a documentary edited one of his speeches, warning that proceeding with the case would have a “chilling effect” on its reporting on the president. Energy | Belgium’s prime minister, Bart De Wever, has been criticised for calling for the normalisation of relations with Russia to re-establish cheap energy supplies. Continue reading...
The Guardian WorldMarch 17, 2026 at 06:55 AM UTCTrump upset as key US partners shun call for Hormuz warship escorts
Several US allies rebuffed Donald Trump’s call on Monday to send warships to escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, drawing criticism from the US president, who accused Western partners of ingratitude after decades of support. The US-Israeli war on Iran is in its third week with no end in sight, largely shutting the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20pc of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flow, raising energy prices and fears of inflation. Israel said on Monday it had drawn up detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war as it pounded sites across Iran overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut Dubai airport and hit a key oil facility in the United Arab Emirates. A number of US partners, including Germany, Spain and Italy, said they had no immediate plans to send ships to help reopen the strategic waterway, which Iran has effectively shut with drones and naval mines. “We lack the mandate from the United Nations, the European Union, or Nato required under the Basic Law,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in Berlin, adding that Washington and Israel had not consulted Germany before launching the war: “That is why the question of how Germany might become militarily involved here does not arise.” Trump, speaking at a news conference in Washington, said many countries had told him they were prepared to help, but voiced frustration with some long-standing allies hosting large numbers of US troops. “Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me,” he said Israel still has ‘thousands’ of targets in Iran Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told reporters there were detailed operational plans for the next three weeks in Iran, and other plans extending further. Israel has said it wants to weaken Iran’s capacity to threaten it, striking ballistic missile infrastructure, nuclear facilities and the security apparatus, and that it still has thousands of targets to hit. “We want to make sure that they are as weak as possible, this regime, and that we degrade all their capabilities, all parts and all wings of their security establishment,” Shoshani said. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would target US industrial facilities in the Middle East and urged people living near US-owned plants to leave. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had not asked for a ceasefire or exchanged messages with the US, according to Iran’s semi-official Student News Network. In a post on X, Araghchi also said that some “neighbouring states” that host US forces and permit attacks on Iran were also actively encouraging the killing of Iranians. He also said 200 children were among the hundreds of Iranian civilians killed in US or Israeli bombings. Iran’s Mehr news agency said five people had been killed and seven wounded in overnight strikes on Markazi province in central Iran. Fars News Agency reported that several civilians had been killed in a strike near Tehran’s Martyrs’ Square, without giving figures. Rescue workers in Tehran worked to pull people from the wreckage of a building in what an Iranian Red Crescent aid worker said was an entirely residential alleyway. Israel claims strikes on Iran’s space program The Israeli military said it was carrying out air strikes on Shiraz, Tabriz and Tehran, including the capital city’s notorious Evin Prison, where many political prisoners have been held. “The strike was carried out in a precise manner to mitigate harm to civilians imprisoned within the prison to the greatest extent possible,” an Israeli military spokesman said. The head of a UN investigation said in Geneva that an Israeli airstrike on Evin last June was a war crime that had killed 80 people, including a child and eight women, and that the latest war could lead Iran to crack down even harder on dissent. Israel said its air force had also struck sites linked to Iran’s space program, including destroying a research facility in Tehran involved in developing a satellite launched in 2024. One Tehran resident told Reuters that there had been no internet overnight and Iranians felt isolated from the world. “People are being killed,” Shahnaz, 62, said via WhatsApp. “Just days before Nowruz (Iranian New Year, on March 20), but people are not in the mood to celebrate. When will this end?” Asked if she supported the Islamic Republic, Shahnaz said: “No, I don’t. How can I? They killed my granddaughter in the [January] protests. We want this regime to go. We want this misery to end.” Some relief for oil prices and stocks In Israel, air raid sirens warned of Iranian missiles. The IRGC said Tehran had launched attacks on areas in Tel Aviv, the US’s Al-Dhafra air base in Abu Dhabi, the US naval base in Bahrain and Bahrain’s Sheikh Issa air base. Furthermore, oil loading operations at the UAE port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman were suspended following an Iranian drone strike. Fujairah is a key exit point for the UAE’s Murban crude — a volume equivalent to roughly 1pc of global demand. Flights at Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest, were suspended for several hours after a drone strike on a nearby fuel storage facility sent plumes of black smoke into the sky. Saudi Arabia intercepted 34 drones in its eastern region in one hour, state media said. No injuries were reported in either incident. Despite the turbulence, oil prices, which had been above $100 a barrel, fell, and stocks rallied after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the US was “fine” to let some Iranian fuel vessels through the strait, and believed Indian and Chinese tankers had also passed through.
DawnMarch 16, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTCWar Diary Day 17: Middle East conflict hits decisive inflection point
The US-Israel war against Iran entered a decisive inflection point on Monday, the 17th day of fighting, as persistent restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz and Israel’s large ground assault in southern Lebanon erased any remaining notion that the conflict would be a short one. What was initially framed in Washington and Tel Aviv as a rapid coercive campaign to force regime change in Tehran is increasingly showing the contours of what some strategists are already describing as a potential strategic defeat for the US in terms of its inability to restore the pre-war regional order despite its overwhelming military force. Trump’s diplomatic push yields little US President Donald Trump has since yesterday pressed allies and partners, including Nato members and Asian economies dependent on Gulf oil, to contribute warships, escorts or minesweepers for a multinational effort to reopen Hormuz. The argument from Washington is that the strait is a global economic lifeline and its closure cannot be tolerated. Yet the diplomatic push has yielded little. European capitals, already facing interceptor shortages and domestic political sensitivities, have quietly signalled reluctance. Switzerland went a step further and declined US requests for overflight clearance. Meanwhile, a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence battery was quietly withdrawn from the region, and China has stepped up military activity around Taiwan. The reluctance is rooted in grim ground realities where the operational environment is rapidly deteriorating. Insurance costs for tanker transits through Hormuz have surged more than fivefold, many insurers have withdrawn coverage altogether, and freight rates for supertankers have soared after Iran struck 18 vessels in or around the strait. Selective opening of Hormuz Yet the disruption is not indiscriminate. Iranian forces appear to be selectively permitting passage for some ships, particularly those linked to India, Turkey and China. In a notable development, a tanker crossed the strait with its automatic identification system signal fully active, suggesting it had obtained explicit clearance from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and signalling Tehran’s confidence in managing limited commercial traffic on its own terms. The selective reopening reinforces the central dilemma facing Washington. Without broad international participation, sustained escort operations would expose US forces to Iran’s anti-ship ballistic missiles and drone swarms already targeting US facilities across the Middle East. As per some reports, even USS Abraham Lincoln had to be repositioned because of harassment attacks by the Iranians. The Pentagon’s own force posture reflects strain, with minesweeping assets previously assigned to the Gulf reportedly redeployed to the Pacific. For now, the coalition Trump has sought remains largely notional. Lebanon theatre While Washington grapples with the Hormuz challenge, Israel has expanded the war’s geography. Israeli forces have launched a major ground offensive into southern Lebanon, advancing along multiple axes from the Mediterranean coast to the eastern border areas. The operation involves several divisions and is supported by the largest reserve mobilisation in Israel’s history. Evacuation orders now cover territory south of the Zahrani River. Israel says the objective is to degrade Hezbollah’s rocket and anti-tank capability and push the threat away from its northern communities that have faced intense Hezbollah bombardment since the start of the Iran war. But the scale of the operation and the doctrine guiding it point to broader aims. Israeli officials have signalled interest in establishing a security zone north of the border and using pressure on Lebanese infrastructure to force political concessions from Beirut that would marginalise Hezbollah. Early battlefield reports from the Lebanon theatre suggest the campaign may prove difficult. Hezbollah fighters are already engaging Israeli units in forward villages and using prepared tunnel networks and anti-tank positions. Meanwhile, rocket fire into Israel has continued despite the ground push. This new phase in the confrontation threatens to develop into the kind of prolonged entanglement Israel faced in earlier Lebanon wars. Tehran seeking sustained attrition For Iran, the opening of this front is strategically useful. Hezbollah’s ability to tie down Israeli forces coincides with continuing Iranian missile strikes on Israeli targets and attacks by allied militias on US positions in Iraq and the Gulf. Tehran is, therefore, clearly orchestrating a multi-front pressure campaign that stretches Israeli and American resources simultaneously. Iran’s own military tempo shows little sign of slowing. Missile salvos have continued at regular intervals, including the use of solid-fuel systems capable of rapid launch. At the same time, Iraqi militia groups have intensified drone attacks on US facilities, while Yemen’s Houthis remain poised to enter the fray should the conflict widen further. The emerging picture reinforces the perception that Tehran is seeking sustained attrition rather than dramatic escalation. Washington’s dilemma The economic consequences are already rippling outward. Oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel since last week and energy market modelling warns of a potential global supply deficit if Hormuz disruption persists. Gulf economies, which are heavily dependent on the strait, therefore face the prospect of sharp contraction should the blockade continue for weeks. Analysts also warn that secondary effects could hit fertiliser production, petrochemical supply chains and food prices in the coming months. In light of this, the strategic dilemma for Washington and its allies is becoming clearer. Reopening Hormuz by force risks escalation into direct territorial confrontation with Iran. Yet leaving the strait effectively under Iranian control undermines a central pillar of US regional influence. At the same time, Israel’s deepening engagement in Lebanon threatens to absorb military capacity that might otherwise support operations against Iran. The coming weeks will show whether Washington can reverse the momentum or whether the conflict settles into a longer contest with widening global consequences. Header image: Men inspect a site of overnight Israeli airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut on March 16, 2026. — AFP
DawnMarch 16, 2026 at 12:45 PM UTCIran warns other nations to stay away as US looks to expand war
PEOPLE clear debris from homes damaged by US-Israel bombing in Tehran.—AFP • Trump asks allies to send ships to protect Hormuz shipping • Tehran turns down any chance of negotiations after US president says he’s not ready for a deal • Araghchi claims ‘ample evidence’ that bases across Gulf being used to target his country • Larijani warns ‘9/11-style’ incident may be staged, blamed on Iran • US base in Baghdad, Italian facility in Kuwait come under attack • Hamas official among 850 killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon WASHINGTON / DUBAI / TEHRAN: US President Donald Trump has called on other nations to join the war against Iran, asking them to send warships to help protect world energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, as strikes hit the US embassy in Baghdad and a major Emirati energy facility on Sunday. Iran’s threats have nearly halted shipping in the strait, sending petroleum prices soaring 40 per cent and roiling the global economy. At least 10 oil tankers have been hit, targeted or reported attacks since the start of the war. After earlier vowing that the US Navy would “very soon” begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump called for reinforcements over the weekend. “Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending war ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” Trump posted on social media. “Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send ships to the area,” he added. However, the UK ministry of defence was non-committal, while South Korea said on Sunday it was paying close attention to Trump’s call for Seoul and other countries to send warships to help protect oil supplies. Meanwhile, UK PM Keir Starmer is said to be considering sending thousands of interceptor drones to the Middle East. According to The Telegraph, military officials are examining whether the ‘Octopus’ interceptor anti-drone drone system, which is manufactured in the UK for Ukraine to use against Russia, can also be used to bolster defenses against Iran’s Shahed drones. A day earlier, Trump claimed US forces had bombed Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. On Sunday, he threatened more strikes on the island, adding that he was not ready for a deal with Tehran to end the war. Trump, who has made a series of varying demands, told NBC News that Tehran appeared ready to make a deal to end the fighting but that “the terms aren’t good enough yet”. Iran’s response However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was not interested in talks with the US, recalling: “we were talking with them when they decided to attack us”. “We are stable and strong enough. We are only defending our people,” Araghchi told CBS News, adding: “We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans… There is no good experience talking with Americans”. “We never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation,” Araghchi said. In a conversation with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, Mr Araghchi also urged other countries to refrain from any action that could widen the scope of the war. In separate remarks, he said: “This war will end when we are certain it will not be repeated and that reparations will be paid. We experienced this last year: Israel attacked, then the United States… they regrouped and attacked us again”. He also took aim at Gulf states, saying that Iran had “ample evidence” US bases in the Middle East had been used to target the Islamic republic. “We have ample evidence of this: satellite imagery and electronic surveillance demonstrate that US bases in this region are being used for attacks,” he said, claiming that missiles had been launched on Kharg Island from the UAE. Meanwhile, Iran’s top national security official Ali Larijani issued a warning on Sunday — apparently addressing American citizens — Iran could be blamed for a 9/11 style incident. “I’ve heard that the remaining members of Epstein’s network have devised a conspiracy to create an incident similar to 9/11 and blame Iran for it,” he wrote on X. He stressed that Iran fundamentally opposes such terrorist operations and said that they had no quarrel with the American public. “We are defending our country against an aggression launched by the US and Israel. Iran stands tall in doing so in order to reach the aggressors a lesson,” he said. Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards vowed on Sunday to target Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “If this child-killing criminal is alive, we will continue to pursue and kill him with full force,” Sepah News quoted the IRGC as saying. Some normalcy returns to Tehran Over the weekend, citizens of Tehran were able to go about their lives in the most normal atmosphere, since the start of the war on February 28. Traffic was busier than last week and some cafes and restaurants had reopened. One resident whizzed down the street on an electric hoverboard, and more than a third of stalls in the Tajrish bazaar, a popular shopping hub in the north of the capital, had reopened five days before Nowruz, the Persian New Year. Some shoppers queued at ATMs to withdraw cash. Online operations at Bank Melli, one of the country’s largest, had been paralysed in recent days. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have arrested dozens across the country on suspicion of cooperating with Israel. “Twenty people were arrested and detained” after they were found to be “sending details of military, law enforcement and security locations to the Zionist enemy,” the Fars news agency said. Those arrests took place during raids on networks linked to Israel in West Azerbaijan province, it added. At least 18 people were also arrested over “sending images of locations bombed by Israel and the US” and other sites to the London-based TV channel Iran International, the Tasnim news agency said. Israel renews strikes Israel has approved an $827 million emergency budget allocation for military purchases on the same day as it began a broad wave of strikes on western Iran. “A short while ago, the IDF began a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime in western Iran,” the army said in a statement on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, at least eight people were injured in Israel following repeated missile launches from Iran. Iran’s army also said it had targeted a police unit called “Lahav 433” and the “Gilat Defence” satellite communications centre in Israel with drone strikes. Separately, Lebanon’s health ministry said on Sunday that Israeli attacks had killed 850 people in the country during two weeks of war; a toll that includes 66 women, 107 children and 32 health workers, with 2,105 other people wounded. Also on Sunday, an Israeli strike in south Lebanon’s Sidon area killed Hamas official Wissam Taha. Several drones and rockets targeted a military base at the Baghdad airport complex, which also houses a US diplomatic facility, security sources told AFP. Italy’s military said there had been a drone attack on the Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait hosting Italian and US forces, but said all its personnel were safe. Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2026
DawnMarch 16, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTCWar Diary Day 16: Trump losing initiative as allies reluctant, Iran defiant
On the sixteenth day of the US–Israel war on Iran, the conflict continued to rage across multiple theatres as Tehran and its regional allies sustained pressure through missile strikes, proxy attacks and maritime disruption. Meanwhile, the US and Israeli campaign showed limited progress in compelling Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which now appears to be their immediate objective. The overall pattern of the war now points to a steady widening of the battlefield. While US and Israeli forces retain clear superiority in the air and continue to conduct deep strikes inside Iran and across Lebanon, Iranian retaliation has not diminished, and the network of allied groups aligned with Tehran is gradually drawing additional fronts into the confrontation. During the past 24 hours, American and Israeli forces carried out further missile and air strikes against targets in central and western Iran, including industrial facilities, an airbase associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and infrastructure linked to intelligence and satellite mapping. These strikes were meant to degrade Iran’s military and logistical capacity. Hormuz, now the casus belli With President Trump increasingly framing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as the central casus belli of the war, he is seeking to broaden the coalition around that objective by urging US allies and major trading partners to contribute naval assets for securing the waterway. He has publicly called on countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Japan, South Korea and others to deploy warships or logistical support for escorting commercial traffic through the Strait, arguing that the disruption now threatens global energy supplies rather than merely American interests. The response so far, however, has been cautious, with several partners reluctant to be drawn directly into the confrontation and some governments limiting their role to defensive preparations or consultations rather than committing forces to the mission. Strikes continue At the same time, Israeli air operations continued against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, striking command facilities in Beirut’s southern suburbs and launch sites in the south of the country. The Lebanese health ministry has said that more than 800 people have lost their lives since hostilities expanded in late February, while displacement inside Lebanon has crossed 800,000. Israeli military planners are also reported to be examining options for a possible ground operation toward the Litani River if rocket and drone attacks continue. Despite these strikes, Iran’s missile and drone campaign has shown little sign of slowing. Israeli sources estimate that roughly 400 ballistic missiles have been launched toward Israeli territory since the war began. Fresh waves on the sixteenth day struck areas around central Israel and Eilat, causing structural damage and injuries, while Iranian media claimed that a strike had hit facilities linked to Israel’s secretive Institute for Biological Research in Ness Ziona. Iranian barrages have also increasingly targeted the Gulf region. Over the past 24 hours, a combination of ballistic missiles and drones was reported across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Kuwaiti authorities said radar installations at Kuwait airport had been damaged while in Dubai, a strike was reported near a major financial district building in what Iranian sources described as retaliation for actions against Iranian banking interests earlier in the conflict. Tehran has denied responsibility for some of these attacks saying that some malign actor was using clones of its Shahed drones, called Lucas, to carry out attacks in neighbouring countries for heightening regional tensions. Iran said that its set of targets was declared and it accepts responsibility for those strikes. Iranian commanders earlier explicitly warned that ports, energy facilities and industrial sites connected to US operations across the Gulf will be considered legitimate targets if the war continues. The United Arab Emirates has emerged as a particular focus of this pressure. The Fujairah oil terminal, a key export hub designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, was already damaged over the past few days by a drone strike that caused fires and halted loading operations. Iranian officials have since warned that further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure could follow if strikes against Iranian territory persist. The proxy front Parallel pressure is also building through allied groups operating in neighbouring countries. Iraq has become the most active proxy front, with militia groups carrying out repeated attacks on American installations. These incidents have heightened political tensions inside Iraq. Some Iraqi leaders have criticised the presence of foreign forces and warned that continued attacks risk drawing the country further into the regional confrontation. Hezbollah has simultaneously maintained sustained rocket and drone fire into northern Israel. The pace of launches has increased in recent days, forcing Israel to keep substantial air defence and ground forces along the Lebanese frontier even as the broader war with Iran has intensified. Another potential escalation point lies in Yemen. The Houthi movement has signalled that it has formally aligned militarily with Iran and could soon announce what it calls “Hour Zero”, referring to coordinated operations in support of Tehran. Analysts believe this could involve renewed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea or attempts to disrupt the Bab al Mandab Strait, a chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Such a development could stretch US and allied naval forces across two major maritime corridors simultaneously and further disrupt global shipping flows already affected by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Evolving naval deployments Naval deployments in the region also continue to evolve. The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, carrying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, is en route from Japan and is expected to arrive within the next seven to ten days. The deployment would roughly add 2,500 Marines along with F-35B aircraft and helicopter assets to the forces already operating in the region. The precise role of this force remains unclear. Some analysts view it primarily as reinforcement for maritime security operations around the Strait of Hormuz, while others believe it could form part of contingency planning for a possible operation to seize Kharg Island should the confrontation escalate further. Another development that attracted attention was the quiet withdrawal of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln from the operational zone. It was operating in waters between the Gulf of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea, which positioned it just outside the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military officials claimed that the carrier had been forced to retreat after being attacked by IRGC Navy, describing it as a historic setback for US. Although there has been no independent confirmation of such claims, the absence of a denial by US military has left the precise circumstances unclear. Meanwhile, where the disruption to shipping routes through the Gulf pushed oil prices above the $100 per barrel threshold, it is also beginning to affect broader supply chains linked to fertilisers, petrochemicals and industrial gases produced in the region. These developments suggest that Iran is widening the theatre of conflict faster than Washington can translate military pressure into political leverage. The most plausible trajectory of the conflict is further escalation lasting several weeks before mounting political and economic pressures begin pushing the parties toward a narrow diplomatic off-ramp. That calculation, however, could change quickly if a major trigger emerges, such as a ground operation around Kharg Island or the formal entry of Yemeni forces into the maritime confrontation. In the immediate term, attention is focused on the next 48 hours. Military observers are closely watching the movement of the Marine expeditionary unit toward the Gulf, the size and frequency of new Iranian missile salvos and any indications that Israel may signal readiness to escalate toward more extreme options if the missile campaign continues. Header image: Israeli soldiers use an artillery unit on the Israeli side of the Israel-Lebanon border on March 15, 2026. — Reuters
DawnMarch 15, 2026 at 02:20 PM UTCWar escalates as US strikes Iran’s energy lifeline
• US bombs Kharg Island, key to 90pc of oil exports • Tehran warns it will target any facility in region linked to US • Trump says warships from several countries to guard Hormuz • US embassy in Baghdad urges Americans to leave Iraq • Iran Guards say targeted US forces at Saudi base with missiles • Iranian military claims US aircraft carrier ‘neutralised’ DUBAI: After the United States on Saturday bombed Iran’s main energy hub and President Donald Trump predicted “many countries” would send warships, Tehran threatened to escalate the war raging in the Middle East by targeting any facility in the region with US ties. As the conflict entered its third week, Iran projected defiance after US forces hit military sites at Kharg Island, which handles 90 per cent of Iranian oil exports. A drone attack had already disrupted a United Arab Emirates energy hub and the US embassy in Baghdad warned US citizens to leave Iraq. Since Israel and the United States began attacking Iran on Feb 28, the war has killed more than 2,000 people and created the biggest-ever oil supply disruption, pushing up global prices. At least 15 people were killed when an air strike hit a refrigerator and heater factory in the central Iranian city of Isfahan, the semi-official Fars news agency said on Saturday. Some oil-loading operations have been suspended in the UAE’s Fujairah emirate, a global ship-refuelling hub, industry and trade sources said on Saturday, with TV footage showing plumes of dark smoke rising into the air. Iran’s foreign minister appealed to Gulf neighbours and other Middle East nations to “expel foreign aggressors” as tit-for-tat attacks reverberate throughout the region, Al Jazeera reports. An Iranian military spokesperson called on people in the UAE to evacuate ports, docks and “American hideouts”, saying US forces had targeted Iranian islands from those areas. Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country was continuing to run as normal despite the war, due to the diligent efforts of “our colleagues in the government” to maintain services, Al Jazeera reports. Trump opposes efforts to launch ceasefire talks Meanwhile, the Trump administration rebuffed efforts by Middle Eastern allies to start diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending the Iran war, Reuters reported citing three sources familiar with the efforts. Oman, which mediated talks before the war, has tried multiple times to open a line of communication, but the White House has made clear it is not interested, according to two sources. A senior White House official confirmed Trump has rebuffed those efforts to start talks and is focused on pressing ahead with the war to further weaken Tehran’s military capabilities. Separately, Trump said many countries would send warships to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for 20pc of the world’s oil. He did not provide details on which would do so, but in his Truth Social post, he said he hoped China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and others would send vessels. “Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” Trump wrote. “In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water,” he wrote. IRGC’s naval commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri has said that the Strait of Hormuz has “not yet been militarily closed” and merely remains under Tehran’s control. He has also taken jabs at Trump, writing on X, “Americans falsely claimed the destruction of Iran’s navy, then they falsely claimed the escorting of oil tankers, now they’re even asking others for backup forces.” Trump has threatened to strike the oil infrastructure of Kharg Island unless Tehran stops attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. He said on Friday the US had “totally obliterated” military targets there. US Central Command later said it hit more than 90 sites on Kharg, including naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers and other military targets. Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed speculation from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth that Khamenei was wounded and likely disfigured. “There is no problem with the new supreme leader. He sent his message yesterday, and he will perform his duties,” Araghchi told MS Now. ‘Kharg island strikes came via UAE’ Iran played down the extent of the damage on Kharg Island while threatening to step up its use of more powerful weapons and warning that parts of the UAE were legitimate targets. “We declare to the leaders of the UAE that Iran considers it a legitimate right to defend its national sovereignty and territory by targeting the origin of American enemy missile launches in the shipping ports, docks and military shelters of the US hidden in some cities of the UAE,” a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said. Araghchi said Iran would respond to any attack on its energy facilities and warned it would target US companies in the region or companies in which the US had shares. The UAE’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to the Iranian accusation that the attack on Kharg Island came through the UAE. Nine ballistic missiles and 33 drones were launched from Iran towards the UAE on Saturday, the Ministry of Defence said. Iran warned residents to leave areas near Jebel Ali port in Dubai, Khalifa port in Abu Dhabi and the UAE’s Fujairah port and said it was targeting branches of US banks in the Gulf. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said late on Saturday they had launched a missile salvo at US forces stationed at a major base in Saudi Arabia’s Al-Kharj. The Guards said the base was being used to equip “F-35 and F-16 fighter jets and is the storage place for fuel tankers”. While there has been no immediate confirmation of the attack from Saudi Arabia, the kingdom’s defence ministry said earlier it intercepted six ballistic missiles headed towards Al-Kharj. The Kuwaiti military said that nine hostile drones were fired at the country, with two causing damage to a military site. Jordan’s military said it has intercepted 79 missiles and drones launched by Iran at the kingdom during the second week of the Middle East war, according to AFP. Iran also launched a new wave of missiles towards Israel, AFP reported, citing Iranian state TV. The Israeli military also claimed that it had killed two senior Iranian intelligence officials in a strike in Tehran, just days after they replaced the former head of the directorate who was assassinated on Feb 28. Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff said that US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln had left the operational area in the region after being “neutralised” by Iranian forces, Anadolu Agency reported. Israel ‘dragging region into instability’ Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the United States and Iran must return to negotiations to prevent the regional war from escalating further. Speaking in Ankara, Fidan warned that the conflict risks spreading across the region. “The war must end as soon as possible. We are concerned about the spread of the war.” “Israel is dragging the region into new instability. As long as the attacks continue in the region, it will turn into an inescapable spiral. Turkiye will resist all kinds of provocations,” he said. Fidan said Turkish air defences intercepted a missile fired towards the country and confirmed Ankara remains in contact with Iranian officials. He said Iran had denied responsibility for missiles fired towards Turkiye, adding that Ankara was discussing contradictions between Tehran’s statements and available technical data on the launches. Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2026
DawnMarch 15, 2026 at 02:54 AM UTC