United States air refueller downed over Iraq in Iran conflict
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War Diary Day 15: Strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island escalate energy war
On the 15th day of the US-Israel war against Iran, strategic signalling between the warring sides intensified after American forces struck Kharg Island, Iran’s principal oil export hub, while Tehran and its regional allies increased pressure across multiple theatres stretching from the Gulf to Iraq and Lebanon. US aircraft conducted strikes on Kharg Island on the night of March 13, targeting what Washington described as military facilities associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. The attacks reportedly hit a short airstrip, air defence positions, docks linked to the Joushan naval base, a control tower and helicopter hangars. Iranian state media acknowledged damage but said air defences were restored shortly afterwards and confirmed that oil export infrastructure was deliberately spared. Reports on Saturday afternoon suggested that oil exports from Kharg Island remained unaffected and at least two ships had docked for loading. US President Donald Trump described the raid as one of the most “powerful bombing operations” in the region’s history and said all military targets had been destroyed. The limited nature of the strike, however, suggested a calibrated attempt to signal the credibility of a larger threat rather than to cripple Iran’s export capacity outright. Kharg Island handles roughly 90 per cent of Iran’s crude exports, but the decision not to strike loading terminals or pipelines indicated that Washington was attempting to exert pressure without triggering immediate energy retaliation from Tehran or adding to chaos at the energy markets. This US Army handout photo taken on March 2, 2026, and released on March 13, 2026, by US Central Command Public Affairs shows a M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) conducting live-fire missions during ‘Operation Epic Fury’ at an undisclosed location. — AFP The operation was therefore designed as a compellence signal linked to the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions to tanker traffic have already begun affecting global oil markets. US planners appear to have concluded that a prolonged closure of the Strait, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil trade passes, would carry significant economic consequences if not reversed quickly. Oil prices have already been keeping above the $100 per barrel threshold for two consecutive days. Alongside the airstrike, reports emerged that the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, carrying the Japan-based 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, had been ordered toward the region to reinforce existing carrier groups. The deployment adds about 2,500 Marines along with F-35B strike aircraft and helicopter assets. The move has led to speculation that Washington could consider a limited ground operation against Kharg Island to deny Iran its main export node if the Hormuz blockade continues. Analysts, however, caution that such a move would carry substantial risks. Iranian ballistic missiles and drones already cover the island’s approaches, which means any American landing force would face sustained attacks once ashore. Kharg also hosts a civilian population and several historical sites, factors that would complicate any attempt at occupying the area. For now, the Marine deployment appears more likely intended to strengthen coercive leverage rather than signal an imminent seizure attempt. Iran, for its part, continued missile and drone operations under Operation True Promise 4, while relying increasingly on allied groups to widen the battlefield. In Iraq, militias aligned with Tehran intensified attacks on American installations. A missile strike hit the helipad area of the US embassy compound in Baghdad, causing a fire, while earlier drone attacks targeted coalition positions in Erbil and elsewhere. The Iraqi strikes have added political complications for Washington because US retaliatory attacks on militia positions have prompted renewed debate in Baghdad about the presence of foreign forces. Statements by Iraqi political figures have warned that continued strikes were undermining Iraqi sovereignty and could draw the country deeper into the regional war. Pressure has also increased along Israel’s northern frontier, where Hezbollah continued sustained rocket and drone attacks. Israeli air defence systems have faced increasingly frequent salvos, forcing the Israeli military to maintain substantial forces along the Lebanon front even as the broader confrontation with Iran intensifies. Meanwhile, the Gulf energy theatre expanded further after a major fire erupted at the Fujairah oil storage hub in the United Arab Emirates. Satellite imagery showed damage to storage tanks and heavy smoke over the port, one of the key export routes designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The incident occurred within hours of Iranian military warnings that Gulf facilities supporting US operations could become legitimate targets. Smoke rises from the direction of an energy installation in the Gulf emirate of Fujairah on March 14, 2026. — AFP The attack underscored Tehran’s strategy of mirroring pressure on energy infrastructure across the region. By targeting facilities in states hosting American forces, Iran is signalling that economic costs will also be borne by the countries supporting Washington and Tel Aviv’s campaign. Another potential escalation point emerged from Yemen, where senior Houthi officials announced that their movement had decided to align militarily with Iran and would soon declare what they described as “Hour Zero” for coordinated operations. The statement hinted at the possible closure of another maritime chokepoint, widely interpreted as a reference to the Bab al Mandab Strait linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Such a move would threaten a second critical global trade route and compound the impact of disruptions already affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Although Houthi forces have not yet launched large-scale attacks since the war began, their entry into the conflict would significantly widen the maritime dimension of the confrontation. An LPG gas tanker at anchor as traffic is down in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Shinas, Oman, March 11, 2026. — AFP Taken together, these developments illustrate a conflict that is increasingly being fought through multiple interconnected pressure points. US and Israel appear focused on applying economic and military coercion aimed at reopening maritime routes, while Iran is attempting to distribute the costs of the war across a wider regional network of fronts. If things remain as such and nothing dramatic happens, the war is likely to continue expanding across energy routes and proxy theatres, steadily increasing the economic and political stakes for all parties involved. Header image: Smoke rises from the direction of an energy installation in the Gulf emirate of Fujairah on March 14, 2026. — AFP
DawnMarch 14, 2026 at 01:16 PM UTCWar Diary Day 14: Attrition contest tightens as Strait of Hormuz standoff deepens
On the 14th day of the US–Israel war against Iran, the conflict entered a more grinding phase in which neither side was closer to a decisive military outcome. Yet, the cumulative pressure generated by Iran’s asymmetric strategy was increasingly shaping the broader strategic balance of the confrontation. The highlight of the day was the downing of a US air refueller over western Iraq while conducting aerial refuelling operations. It was the first-ever incident of any air force refueller being shot down. Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq claimed the attack in which all four crew members on board were killed, while another tanker was said to have been damaged in the same attack and forced to divert. The loss, therefore, represents one of the most serious operational setbacks suffered by US air support assets since the conflict began. Alongside these reports were Iranian claims about US naval forces in the region being attacked, including assertions that the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln had been struck and rendered inoperable, while the fire aboard the USS Gerald Ford compelled adjustments in carrier strike group deployment. These incidents may not fundamentally alter the overall US naval advantage, but they nevertheless underline the operational challenges that emerge as conflicts stretch into longer campaigns. Iran simultaneously continued its calibrated missile campaign under Operation True Promise 4, with successive waves targeting Israeli cities —including West Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Eilat — while also striking US and coalition facilities across the Gulf region. Among them are the Fifth Fleet headquarters at Salman Port in Bahrain, Ahmad al Jaber Air Base in Kuwait and Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. A missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia reportedly injured several US and coalition personnel, some of whom were evacuated to Landstuhl in Germany. Israeli policemen inspect the site of a rocket strike in Zarzir, northern Israel, on March 13, 2026. — AFP Another development that raised the stakes occurred at Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkiye, where air raid sirens sounded after reports of a possible incoming missile threat linked to Iranian or proxy operations. Although there has been no confirmed report of an impact so far, the alert at a key Nato facility hosting US aircraft and logistical assets marks a potentially dangerous moment in the war; any direct strike on Turkish territory would bring the conflict onto the soil of a Nato member state and could trigger collective defence consultations under the alliance’s Article 5 framework. Such a scenario would risk transforming what has so far remained a regional war into a far broader confrontation involving Nato. At sea, the confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz continued to define the strategic direction of the war. Iranian forces have relied on mines, explosive sea drones and attacks on commercial shipping to raise the risks for vessels attempting to transit the waterway, with numerous ships reported damaged or ablaze since the start of hostilities. Energy analysts now estimate that nearly 15 per cent of global oil supply is effectively trapped east of the Strait, because of which oil prices have gone above the $100-mark despite large releases from strategic reserves by major consuming countries. The International Energy Agency has warned that even if fighting were to end soon, restoring normal shipping flows could take weeks or months. Royal Oman Police Coast Guard patrol boat surveys the area as the traffic is down in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Muscat, Oman, March 12, 2026. — Reuters The maritime campaign has therefore become Iran’s most consequential strategic lever through which it is imposing costs far beyond the battlefield. These economic reverberations are spreading globally due to a surge in shipping insurance premiums, restricted tanker movements and a sharp rise in aviation fuel costs. Globally, airlines are estimated to be facing hundreds of millions of dollars in additional weekly expenses. Despite sustained US and Israeli air strikes targeting Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure, missile production facilities and command nodes, Western assessments indicate that Iran’s inventory of surface-to-surface missile launchers remains broadly intact because of pre-war stockpiles and the use of dispersal and deception tactics that have limited the effectiveness of the aerial campaign. Inside Iran, the political system appears stable under the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Large pro-government rallies have been reported in Tehran, while Basij security deployments targeted earlier in the war have been quickly reinforced. Similarly, Top Iranian leaders, including Ali Larijani, the key man running the war strategy, and President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attended the Al-Quds rally in Tehran, the same time as where Israel bombed nearby Valiasr street. In his first public remarks since assuming leadership, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Iran’s readiness to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until what he described as compensation for the war is secured. Iran’s regional allies have also intensified their involvement. Militias in Iraq, which had previously claimed the downing of at least two F-15 belonging to the US and the overnight downing of the air force refueller, have stepped up drone and missile attacks on US facilities in Erbil and Baghdad while warning that Western forces, including newly deployed French assets, would be targeted if they become engaged in the conflict. One French soldier was killed and six others were wounded after a drone attack in northern Iraq that President Emmanuel Macron said was “unacceptable” and unjustified. The militia groups were always expected to join the fray, but the ferocity with which they are carrying out attacks was unexpected, and this points to the risk of additional theatres becoming active as the war progresses. At the political level, strains are beginning to emerge within the coalition backing the US-led campaign. Gulf states hosting American bases have themselves become targets of Iranian missiles and drones, while some European partners have started to voice unease about the conflict and the possibility of deeper military entanglement if the confrontation widens further. Publicly, officials in Washington continue to project confidence about the progress of the campaign, with US President Donald Trump and other American figures asserting that sustained military pressure is steadily degrading Iran’s capabilities. Yet, behind these statements, there are also signs of quieter diplomatic contacts suggesting a more cautious calculation. In the latest move, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has once again engaged the Omani government to relay messages to Tehran after an earlier Witkoff initiative failed to gain much traction. The US appears to be betting that prolonged pressure will eventually force Tehran to accept terms favourable to Washington for ending the war. Iranian leaders, however, are signalling the opposite, indicating that they are prepared for a prolonged confrontation and will not concede under pressure. The conflict is now a strategic contest of endurance rather than a struggle for rapid battlefield gains. Therefore, Iran may not be winning the war in a conventional military sense, yet it is shaping the wider environment of the conflict by fracturing the coalition arrayed against it, trapping a significant portion of global oil supply behind a contested maritime chokepoint and steadily raising the political and economic costs of the campaign. Unless there is a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or a shift in Washington’s willingness to tolerate disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, the war now appears headed toward a prolonged and economically punishing stalemate in which the decisive question will not be who strikes harder but who can withstand greater pressure for longer. Header image: An Iranian security force officer stands guard next to a huge billboard of Iran’s newly nominated supreme leader Ayatollah Mojataba Khamenei (pointing) during Al-Quds day rally in Tehran on March 13, 2026. — AFP
DawnMarch 13, 2026 at 12:06 PM UTC